Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.
Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?
Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.
Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?
I second this 
It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.
PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.
Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.
PVIs are calculated according to the difference between the margin in the area whose PVI is being discussed and the margin nationwide, not by the former on its own.
