UK local by-elections 2014

[MaxQue]

Non natives of the British Isles now have to guess how 'Leominster' is pronounced.

Since you're asking the question, I'm pretty the answer isn't Leo-min-ster.

Following the logic than Wednesday is pronounced Wens-day and Worcester is Worster, I would guess Leoster or Leomster?

[politicus]

Non natives of the British Isles now have to guess how 'Leominster' is pronounced.

Lemster?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Non natives of the British Isles now have to guess how 'Leominster' is pronounced.

Lemster?

Yes; sometimes Lempster.

[ObserverIE]

Cornwall result taken care of overleaf - many thanks for pointing it out for me.

[doktorb]

Cornwall is part of England.

I'm aware, but the Cornwall previews aren't on the England website. I'm not the one hosting the previews, so, don't shoot the messenger.

f

Our esteemed host from another place could do to explain why he separates Cornwall

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Words are here ac yma.

Blackpool, Clifton

Lab 41.3 (-16.1)
UKIP 29.8 (+29.8)
Con 23.3 (-6.6)
Lib Dem 2.7 (+2.7)
Green 2.1 (+2.1)
TUSC 0.8 (+0.8)

Rhondda Cynon Taf, Aberaman North

Lab 39.4 (-28.6)
Ind 30.6
PC 25.2 (-6.8)
TUSC 2.5 (+2.5)
Con 2.2 (+2.2)

Doncaster, Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun

UKIP 40.8 (+4.1)
Lab 37.6 (+1.9)
Con 16.2 (-3.0)
Green 5.4 (+5.4)

Walsall, Birchills Leamore

Lab 47.8 (+6.6)
Con 31.6 (+7.2)
UKIP 19.8 (-9.7)
Eng Dem 0.9 (+0.9)

Maidstone, Staplehurst

Lib Dem 36.2 (+9.0)
Con 35.9 (+2.8)
UKIP 18.5 (-5.1)
Lab 7.0 (-0.9)
Green 2.4 (-1.1)

Reading, Southcote

Lab 59.8 (+2.3)
Con 20.0 (-8.0)
UKIP 13.3 (+13.3)
Green 4.1 (-5.4)
Lib Dem 2.9 (-2.0)

Windsor and Maidenhead, Clewer North

Ind 57.7 (+8.7)
Con 31.9 (-4.4)
Lab 10.4 (-4.4)

Northumberland, Longhoughton

Lib Dem 49.6 (+49.6)
Con 23.5 (+0.7)
Ind 13.9
UKIP 9.8 (-3.1)
Lab 3.2 (+3.2)

UKIP gain Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun from Lab
Lib Dem gain Staplehurst from Con
Lib Dem gain Longhoughton from Ind

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Words are once again here ac yma.

Charnwood, Thurmaston (changes in italics since 2013 county council election in same ward)

Lab 42.6 (-3.1) (-4.8)
UKIP 27.0 (+27.0) (+27.0)
Con 22.0 (-32.3) (-20.1)
BDP 5.2 (+5.2) (+5.2)
BNP 3.2 (+3.2) (-7.3)

Merthyr Tydfil, Penydarren

Lab 31.3 (+0.4)
Ind Baker 28.6
Ind Barsi 27.7
Lib Dem 7.5 (+7.5)
Con 4.9 (+4.9)

Flintshire, Mostyn

Ind 40.0
Lab 37.2 (+4.4)
UKIP 17.5 (+17.5)
Con 5.3 (+5.3)

Rother, Darwell

Con 42.7 (-10.4)
UKIP 21.5 (+21.5)
Green 18.2 (-0.6)
Lab 9.9 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 7.7 (-9.4)

Lab gain Thurmaston from Con
Lab gain Penydarren from UKIP
Ind hold Mostyn

[YL]

Charnwood, Thurmaston (changes in italics since 2013 county council election in same ward)

Lab 42.6 (-3.1) (-4.
UKIP 27.0 (+27.0) (+27.0)
Con 22.0 (-32.3) (-20.1)
BDP 5.2 (+5.2) (+5.2)
BNP 3.2 (+3.2) (-7.3)

A very poor Con result, but mildly disturbing that 8.4% voted for one of the squabbling fascists.  This area has a bit of a history of that, of course; East Goscote ward (which is not too far away) still has a BNP councillor in spite of everything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, Leicester suburbs. Not too surprising, alas.

[ObserverIE]

This week's (monolingual) Holy Word here.

Epping Forest, Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing

Con 50.5 (-33.4)
UKIP 39.7 (+39.7)
Green 7.5 (-2.4)
Lib Dem 2.3 (-3.9)

Huntingdonshire, Warboys and Bury

Con 46.6 (-2.8)
UKIP 42.1 (+9.2)
Lib Dem 5.9 (-2.0)
Lab 5.4 (-4.4)

Worthing, Castle

UKIP 36.9 (+7.0)
Con 31.5 (-0.7)
Lib Dem 15.7 (-3.3)
Lab 12.8 (-2.1)
Green 3.2 (-0.8)

Stroud, Valley

Green 42.8 (-4.3)
Lab 33.8 (+2.3)
UKIP 11.2 (+11.2)
Con 9.9 (-11.5)
TUSC 2.4 (+2.4)

Malvern Hills, Wells

Con 37.3 (-27.4)
Lib Dem 26.7 (+26.7)
UKIP 18.6 (+18.6)
Ind 9.0
Lab 8.4 (+8.4)

UKIP gain Castle from Lib Dem

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Lambeth, Knight's Hill

Lab 63.7 (+2.3)
Con 12.5 (-0.2)
Green 11.6 (-0.3)
UKIP 5.0 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 4.7 (-2.1)
Ind 2.6

Bolsover, South Normanton East

Lab 70.9 (+10.9)
Con 29.1 (+6.1)

[ObserverIE]

No Word, either Holy or Profane, this week, but one result:

Broadland, Wroxham (changes in italics since March 2014 by-election):

Con 45.0 (+12.6) (+10.8)
Lib Dem 43.4 (-2.6) (-4.9)
Lab 11.6 (+0.1) (+5.3)

Con gain Wroxham from Lib Dem

[YL]

There's also the West Midlands PCC by-election.  The turnout did make double figures, but only just: 10.32%.  (It was below 10% in Coventry and Sandwell.)  It looks like results will appear here.

Update:
David Jamieson (Lab) 102,561 (50.8%)
Les Jones (Con) 54,091 (26.8%)
Keith Rowe (UKIP) 32,187 (16.0%)
Ayoub Khan (Lib Dem) 12,950 (6.4%)

Jamieson elected on the first round.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word returns.

[You kip if you want to...]

Jesmond is Newcastle's student land and the student's aren't back from summer yet and, as such, it was an easy LD hold.

[ObserverIE]

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Jesmond

Lib Dem 52.5 (+19.9)
Lab 23.6 (-7.3)
Con 8.6 (-5.9)
UKIP 8.3 (+0.7)
Green 6.9 (-7.6)

[ObserverIE]

Oxford, Carfax

Lab 44.2 (+21.0)
Lib Dem 26.6 (+7.7)
Green 16.6 (-16.6)
Con 6.3 (-15.3)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)

Surrey Heath, Old Dean

Lab 44.1 (-6.3)
Con 29.8 (-1.1)
UKIP 26.0 (+13.9)

Shepway, Folkestone Harvey Central

UKIP 27.9 (+27.9)
Con 21.7 (-16.9)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+1.6)
Lab 19.0 (-8.1)
Green 9.3 (+9.3)
TUSC 2.8 (+2.8)

Lab hold Carfax
UKIP gain Folkestone Harvey Central from Con

[YL]

Oxford, Carfax

Lab 44.2 (+21.0)
Lib Dem 26.6 (+7.7)
Green 16.6 (-16.6)
Con 6.3 (-15.3)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)

Turnout was 8.6%.  (Most of the population are students, and it's still the summer vacation.)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

Vale of White Horse, Abingdon Dunsmore

Lib Dem 52.4 (+16.5)
Con 35.2 (-6.3)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)
Lab 6.1 (-5.5)

Carlisle, Castle

Lab 38.4 (+1.1)
Con 22.4 (+3.4)
UKIP 22.0 (-0.9)
Lib Dem 12.8 (+1.9)
Green 4.4 (-3.1)

Cumbria, Castle

Lab 37.7 (-2.8)
Con 23.7 (+13.1)
UKIP 22.8 (+2.8)
Lib Dem 10.9 (-12.3)
Green 4.9 (+0.9)

Newham, Beckton

Lab 51.0 (-12.7)
Con 29.6 (+0.9)
UKIP 10.9 (+10.9)
Green 3.5 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 2.2 (+2.2)
CPA 1.7 (-5.9)
TUSC 1.1 (+1.1)

Newark and Sherwood, Colingham and Meering (changes in italics since May 2013 by-election)

Con 41.2 (-24.2) (-33.8)
Ind 34.5
UKIP 15.8 (+15.8) (+15.8)
Lab 8.6 (+8.6) (-16.4)

Newark and Sherwood, Ollerton

Lab 58.1 (+5.9)
Con 22.4 (-4.8)
UKIP 19.4 (+19.4)

Lib Dem hold Abingdon Dunsmore

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

It may be referendum day in Scotland, but in the rump UK political life goes on as normal (for now) with three local by-elections on 18th September.  Labour are defending seats in Oxford and on the North Wales coast (for which see Welsh Elections), while there is an independent defence in County Durham.

 

ABERGELE PENSARN, Conwy county borough council, North Wales; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Jean Stubbs.

 

This is a coastal division, covering the part of the town of Abergele to the east of the A55, the main road through North Wales.  The double-barrelled name is partly to reflect the name of the ward's railway station (Abergele and Pensarn, on the North Wales Coast line) and partly because Conwy county borough has another Pensarn division, in Llandudno Junction.  The division has a very high retired population; 28% of the population is retired according to the 2011 census, which also found 45% of the population identifying as English; however, Abergele has a reputation for being rather downmarket compared to other retirement communities on the North Wales Coast.

 

Stubbs had been councillor for Abergele Pensarn since at least 2004, although with interrupted service: she lost her seat to the Conservatives in 2008 before getting it back in 2012, in which election the Tories fell to third place behind an independent candidate.

 

There will still be a Stubbs on the ballot paper, as Jean's husband Rick is the defending Labour candidate.  In a crowded independent field, Abergele town councillor Ken Sudlow, the runner-up in the 2012 election, is standing again, and is joined by flood warden Barry Griffiths, former NHS senior manager Val Parker, and Kinmel Bay resdent Michael Smith.  Another town councillor on the ballot is the Tories' John Pitt, who gives an address in the interior village of Llanfair Talhaiarn.  Completing the ballot paper is the division's first UKIP candidate, Sarah Wardlaw.

 

Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Clwyd West

Assembly electoral region: North Wales

ONS Travel to Work Area: Rhyl and Denbigh

 

Barry Griffiths (Ind)

Val Parker (Ind)

John Pitt (C)

Michael Smith (Ind)

Rick Stubbs (Lab)

Ken Sudlow (Ind)

Sarah Wardlaw (UKIP)

 

May 2012 result Lab 407 Ind 186 C 145

May 2008 result C 322 Lab 282 Ind 128

June 2004 result Lab 274 Ind 160 C 152

 

 

CROOK, Durham council; caused by the death of Independent councillor Eddie Murphy at the age of 69.  A former RAF air traffic controller who had also worked as a welfare officer for the former Durham city council and as a pub landlord, Murphy had been a councillor for Crook for almost twenty years, originally being elected for Labour; he served twice as chairman of the former Wear Valley district council.

 

This wonderfully-named market town can be found in the hills above Weardale, about five miles north-west of Bishop Auckland.  It's a town of relatively recent vintage which grew from a tiny hamlet in the early Victorian period thanks to coalmining; with the mines now exhausted Crook has declined to the status of a small market town.

 

The Liberal Democrats had some strength in Crook during the later years of the last Labour government; when Wear Valley district council was abolished in 2009 they held most of the district council seats covered by the present division, and in the first unitary Durham council elections in 2008 the Lib Dems won both seats in Crook North and Tow Law, the seats in Crook South being split by Labour and Eddie Murphy with the Lib Dems close behind; part of the modern Crook division was also then in the Willington division where the Tories topped the poll.  New division boundaries introduced last year united Crook into a single three-seat division, Murphy being re-elected at the top of the poll and Labour winning the other two seats.  There were significant votes in the 2013 election for an Independent slate and for the "Wear Valley Independents", with the Lib Dem vote crashing.  One of the Labour councillors died shortly after the 2013 election and Labour easily held the resulting by-election, held last November, with the Independent and Wear Valley Independent candidates being evenly balanced.

 

The independent candidate defending this by-election is Tony Simpson, from Crook; with the Wear Valley Independent Group having thrown in the towel his chances of election have been greatly improved.  Labour have selected Maureen Stanton, who runs a local call centre.  The Lib Dems' David English is having his third crack at the ward in two years and is the only candidate to have also contested last year's by-election.  Also standing are Alan Booth for the Conservatives and Betty Hopson for UKIP.

 

Parliamentary constituency: North West Durham

ONS Travel to Work Area: Bishop Auckland and Barnard Castle

 

Alan Booth (C)

David English (LD)

Betty Hopson (UKIP)

Tony Simpson (Ind)

Maureen Stanton (Lab)

 

Nov 2013 by-election Lab 741 Ind 496 Wear Valley Ind Gp 360 LD 145 C 54 Grn 40

May 2013 result Ind 771/630/594 Lab 719/691/642 Wear Valley Ind Gp 559/476/450 LD 161/144/124 Grn 123/89/88
 

 

QUARRY AND RISINGHURST, Oxford city council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Laurence Baxter who has a new job as a history teacher in Prague.

 

This ward is on the eastern outskirts of Oxford, straddling the eastern bypass and lying immediately to the south of the Headington Roundabout.  This is the first part of Oxford which drivers entering the city from London will see.  The Quarry refers to Headington Quarry, a residential area which is actually built in a former quarrying area (many Oxford colleges were built out of stone from the quarry).  While Headington Quarry is a leafy area full of educated people, Risinghurst outside the ring road is an inter-war estate built to house workers at the motor factories in Oxford.  One notable former resident is the author and Oxford academic C S Lewis, who lived in Risinghurst.

 

This sort of profile, together with Oxford's active Labour party, produces a ward which is generally Labour except for a single Lib Dem win at the 2004 election.  The Lib Dem councillor stood for re-election as a Conservative in 2008 and came second, in the closest the perennially-useless Oxford Tories have come to winning a seat on the city council for decades.  At county level Quarry comes under the Headington and Quarry division, which was won by the Lib Dems in 2013 by just 31 votes over Labour, while Risinghurst is part of the safe-Labour division of Barton, Sandhills and Risinghurst.

 

Defending for Labour is Chewe Munkonge, who works in audit at Lloyds Bank.  The Lib Dems have selected Roz Smith, county councillor for Headington and Quarry division and runner-up in last May's city council election.  The Tory candidate is environmental scientist Katharine Harborne, while midwife and former Risinghurst and Sandhills parish councillor Liz Taylor stands for the Green Party.  Completing the ballot paper is Julia Gasper of the English Democrats, who stood for this area several times as a UKIP candidate before being forced out of the party for being a homophobe.

 

Parliamentary constituency: Oxford East

Oxfordshire county council division: Barton, Sandhills and Risinghurst (part), Headington and Quarry (part)

ONS Travel to Work Area: Oxford

 

Julia Gasper (EDP)

Katharine Harborne (C)

Chewe Munkonge (Lab)

Roz Smith (LD)

Liz Taylor (Grn)

 

May 2014 result Lab 941 LD 549 C 415 Grn 253

May 2012 result Lab 848 LD 411 C 310 Grn 76 UKIP 69

May 2010 result Lab 1276 LD 938 C 733 Grn 207 UKIP 136

May 2008 result Lab 786 C 622 LD 585 Grn 86 Ind 9

May 2006 result Lab 789 LD 699 C 354 Grn 173

June 2004 result LD 953 Lab 572 C 356 Grn 155

May 2002 result Lab 607/531 LD 552/418 C 335/304 Grn 106/72 Socialist Alliance 70

[ObserverIE]

Oxford, Quarry and Risinghurst

Lab 42.3 (-1.3)
Lib Dem 33.3 (+7.9)
Con 12.0 (-7.2)
Green 10.1 (-1.6)
Eng Dem 2.3 (+2.3)

Conwy, Abergele Pensarn

Lab 25.9 (-29.2)
Ind Smith 21.7
UKIP 20.9 (+20.9)
Ind Sudlow 12.0
Ind Griffiths 9.1 (-16.1)
Con 8.8 (-10.8)
Ind Parker 1.6

Durham, Crook (changes in italics since November 2013 by-election)

Lab 46.8 (+14.0) (+6.4)
UKIP 21.1 (+21.1) (+21.1)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+7.6) (+6.6)
Ind 12.0 (-19.9) (-15.0)
Con 5.6 (+5.6) (+2.7)

Lab gain Crook from Ind

[ObserverIE]

This week's Holy Word here.

Epping Forest, Epping Hemnall

Lib Dem 43.3 (+0.8)
Con 27.6 (+6.5)
UKIP 24.2 (-1.4)
Green 4.9 (+0.5)

Somerset, Frome North

Con 46.5 (+10.8)
Lib Dem 35.0 (-2.3)
Lab 6.8 (-4.0)
Green 5.8 (+5.8)
Ind 5.8

Guildford, Lovelace

Lib Dem 61.3 (+47.0)
Con 28.2 (-42.8)
UKIP 7.0 (+7.0)
Lab 3.5 (-11.2)

Lib Dem gain Epping Hemnall from Con
Con gain Frome North from Lib Dem
Lib Dem gain Lovelace from Con

[freefair]

2 LibDem gains for the Conservatives at a very low point in their popularity (barely floating above 5% in opinion polls), & one Tory Gain from Them. At first it does seem Crazy, but I guess there are other strong local factors at play (or perhaps turnout is just abysmal)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Cleggmania 2.0

[ObserverIE]

2 LibDem gains for the Conservatives at a very low point in their popularity (barely floating above 5% in opinion polls), & one Tory Gain from Them. At first it does seem Crazy, but I guess there are other strong local factors at play (or perhaps turnout is just abysmal)

Dead Parrot Bounce?