Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[Donerail]

So that whole redistricting process

WaPo is saying it's likely a redraw will be forced before the midterms. A redraw under strict Fair Districts would at a minimum means the Castor seat doesn't touch Pinellas. FL-13 becomes a lot more Democratic, Dems could pickup 4.

[Torie]

So that whole redistricting process

WaPo is saying it's likely a redraw will be forced before the midterms. A redraw under strict Fair Districts would at a minimum means the Castor seat doesn't touch Pinellas. FL-13 becomes a lot more Democratic, Dems could pickup 4.

If this is the article to which you refer, I think your use of the term "likely" may be an overstatement. I find the emphasis on intent rather than results itself problematical. Either the lines followed the law, or they did not. I find it odd that all of this is coming to a head at this late date in any event. Were not these issues hashed out previously?

[Donerail]

So that whole redistricting process

WaPo is saying it's likely a redraw will be forced before the midterms. A redraw under strict Fair Districts would at a minimum means the Castor seat doesn't touch Pinellas. FL-13 becomes a lot more Democratic, Dems could pickup 4.

If this is the article to which you refer, I think your use of the term "likely" may be an overstatement. I find the emphasis on intent rather than results itself problematical. Either the lines followed the law, or they did not. I find it odd that all of this is coming to a head at this late date in any event. Were not these issues hashed out previously?

Probably; I just saw a few quotes from it on Twitter. Now that I'm actually sitting down to read it, possibly is a better term.

The focus on intent is because the relevant section of the Florida Constitution specifically discusses intent.

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So the reason this is happening now: in 2010 the Fair Districts amendments were passed, and the current maps were passed in 2012. The Florida SC forced the legislature to redraw the Senate map, which is still subject to a pending lawsuit. The Congressional map wasn't subject to automatic facial review before the FLSC, so a lawsuit was filed to challenge the map, but the Legislature managed to draw out the clock until after the 2012 election, which is why we're here now.

[politicallefty]

I don't know how any court can rationally uphold the way the current FL-13 and FL-14 are drawn. Is it really that hard to draw one St. Petersburg-based Pinellas district and one Tampa-based Hillsborough district? The fact that FL-14 takes in all of Tampa and jumps over to take the most Democratic precincts from St. Petersburg makes it an obvious partisan gerrymander. Personally, I'd go for something like this:



FL-12 and FL-15 are basically unchanged. FL-13 would take in all of St. Petersburg and work its way north through the county, stopping short of its old border. FL-14 would be confined entirely to Hillsborough County, taking in new suburban areas to the north of Tampa (Brandon could be swapped with the northern Tampa areas, though the difference would be almost nonexistent).

In any event, FL-13 would move from R+1 to something like D+4. That's a considerable shift that would make the district quite tough for Republicans. On the other hand, FL-14 would drop from D+13 to around D+8 or D+9, which is pretty much out of range for the current Republican Party.

[Donerail]

If I were in charge of things...





FL-11 (currently Nugent's district) keeps Citrus and Hernando, but shifts down to include eastern Pasco and parts of northern Hillsborough. It would lean Republican (went McCain by 6) but could be targeted in a wave. FL-12 (Bilirakis) keeps northern Pinellas and New Port Richey, but swaps part of Pasco for part of Hillsborough. Lean R, maybe - went McCain by one point. FL-13 becomes mid and south Pinellas, went Obama by 12, pretty safe D. FL-14 keeps Tampa and surrounding suburbs and becomes around 20% black and 24% Hispanic. Went for Obama by 14, safe D. FL-15 keeps its Plant City-Polk County alignment. McCain won the district by 9, safe R for Ross. FL-16 is virtually unchanged and would've gone for McCain by 3 points, making it somewhere between lean and likely for someone like Buchanan.

[politicallefty]

That's not a bad map, though I try to limit splitting counties and municipalities. We're in pretty much total agreement when it comes to FL-13. It really does draw itself. I am a lot more partial to my FL-14 though. With that said, the districts I drew weren't part of a complete map. Your FL-16 is very good though (as Manatee and Sarasota Counties have almost the exact population for one CD). That one's still a tough one for Democrats. It's a district Romney probably won by about 10%. Your FL-12 is still probably Likely R. Democrats seem to always underperform in suburban-dominated districts like that in Florida.

[Donerail]

That's not a bad map, though I try to limit splitting counties and municipalities. We're in pretty much total agreement when it comes to FL-13. It really does draw itself.

Yeah, as someone who lives in the FL-14 portion of Pinellas drawing FL-13 as we did is really the only way that makes sense. I drew mine extending more into Dunedin to help keep Safety Harbor intact in FL-12.

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I'm more optimistic about my FL-12 than normal - Democrats usually don't perform well in that area, but we recently picked up a couple of State House seats (Carl Zimmermann in north Pinellas and Amanda Murphy in Pasco). But yeah, you're right - a lot of it has to do with how poor the local Democratic Parties have been at getting good candidates recruited in local races. Apart from the incumbents, there's maybe 4 House seats in the entire 8-county area we could be said to be seriously contesting as pickup opportunities (42, 67, 69, and 72), only one State Senate seat (22), and only one Congressional seat (15). We're also only really contesting the Governor's and AG races - not the CFO or Ag Commish races. FL Dems are just generally in a bad state.

[Donerail]

Interesting note, going through their campaign finance stuff - the FEA has given entirely to Democrats this cycle, except for money going to seven Senate incumbents - Detert, Garcia, Diaz dlPortilla, Legg, Latvala, Grimsley, and Evers. FEA seems to be trying to gain enough of a Senate majority to stop anything the House throws at it.

[free my dawg]

Rivera drops out.

[Donerail]

New maps are up. Corrine Brown's district drops from 50 to 48% black VAP but still stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando.

[Flake]

New maps are up. Corrine Brown's district drops from 50 to 48% black VAP but still stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando.

And no link?

[Donerail]

New maps are up. Corrine Brown's district drops from 50 to 48% black VAP but still stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando.

And no link?

Here you go.

Here's all the fancy numbers for the data nerds.

[windjammer]

Can someone sum up the changes?

[Flake]

New maps are up. Corrine Brown's district drops from 50 to 48% black VAP but still stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando.

And no link?

Here you go.

Here's all the fancy numbers for the data nerds.

Nice, looks like my district is more Democratic.

[Miles]

Just trying to draw them in DRA, CD10 still looks 52%-ish McCain but Obama looks like he barely won CD7. The precincts in the area are small and there's not much for me to go by, so I could be wrong.

[Miles]

Yep, it would have been really helpful for them to include a more detailed view of Orlando, as thats the most impacted area. There are lots of small urban precincts so its hard to keep track.

It depends on how much of its Orange County precincts they changed around, but CD7 looks like it flipped from barely McCain to barely Obama. It took in Sanford from CD5 (very D) and looks like it lost several swingy/mildly R precincts closer to Orlando.

Overall, good strategy by the Republicans. Mica took the bigger hit, but he's more entrenched than Webster, who's seat looks about the same.

Edit: From Rougemapper at RRH:

CD7: 50.7/49.3 Obama (from 50.3/49.7 McCain)
CD10: 51.6/48.4 McCain (from 52.4/47.6 McCain)

[Donerail]

Try this.

[Miles]

DKE crunched the 2012 numbers for the new map.

CD5: Obama +43 -> Obama +38
CD7: Romney +5 -> Romney +3
CD9: Obama +25 -> Obama +21
CD10: Romney +8 -> Romney +5

[free my dawg]

And Rivera's back in.

[Miles]

FL-02: 'Decent take by Reuters on Graham.

[Miles]

FL-02: Southerland is one of the incumbents that worries GOP strategists the most:

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[Donerail]

For what it's worth, Patrick Murphy picked up the US Chamber's endorsement today.

[Miles]

Roll Call report on CD2.

[Miles]

CD18: Murphy has another strong quarter:

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[Devils30]

The good races this year are FL-2,18, 26. I'm not sure FL-26 flips back, that district has had a huge D trend lately. Went from 51-49 McCain to 53-46 Obama.