Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[publicunofficial]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

What other districts are actually competitive though?

FL-27 and FL-25 are competitive on paper, but not while IRL and Diaz-Balart are in office. Same with FL-07 and Mica. Some say FL-16 and FL-19 are possible due to Buchanan and Radel's scandals, but they're fool's gold.


Val Demmings ran a great campaign in FL-10 last year and came up way short, so unless the FDP wins their redistricting lawsuit (Which would likely turn FL-10 into a safe Orlando-centric district), I seriously doubt Webster looses.


On the sunny side, Patrick Murphy is a fundraising champion and is apparently popular in FL-18, and his re-election chances look better by the day. Joe Garcia in FL-26 is still in danger, we'll see if the scandal regarding his Chief of Staff does serious damage. And for pick-ups, FL-13 looks like a sure pick-up, but stories about Sink's so-far non-existent campaign give me pause.

I'm very excited about Gwen Graham in FL-02, and currently consider it one of the non-open R-held seats most likely to flip in 2014.

[publicunofficial]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

Graham IS a somewhat more conservative candidate.

[publicunofficial]

Nominating Connie Mack IV would be replacing an admitted cokehead with a cokehead who hasn't been caught yet.

[publicunofficial]

Gwen Graham has outraised and has more cash on hand than Steve Southerland for the 2nd quarter in a row.


I'm feeling pretty confident about this race.

[publicunofficial]

State Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto has been spotted meeting with the NRCC, most likely to enter the FL-19 race.

[publicunofficial]

FL-18: Allen West's candidate, Ellen Andel, is dropping out.

She raised $13K last quarter, and only had about $6K in the bank. It's probably for the best she got out.

I'm guessing the nomination goes to Carl Domino. He can self-finance, but still never get near Murphy's numbers.

[publicunofficial]

Yes.

YES.

YEESSSSSSSS

[publicunofficial]

There will be no FL-13 candidate with a D after his name. The DCCC is backing some guy from Tampa (doesn't even live in the district) who's unknown in local politics, has never held office, and is running as an NPA. Someone really needs to send the DCCC a memo reminding them that FL-13 is in Pinellas, not Hillsborough.

I read he lives in St. Petersburg, which is better.

Still, I'm SO GLAD the Pinellas Democrats pushed Sykes aside for this guy. But hey, at least he's not Sink right guys?!?!

[publicunofficial]

Ed Jany has dropped out of the race after several lies where found in his résumé. Jolly is now running unopposed.

[publicunofficial]

Val Demings has unexpectedly dropped out of her race for Orange County Mayor. No real reason has been given, but some are saying that Demings is betting on FL-10 being made more D-leaning in a new redistricting, and wants to run for that rather than Mayor.