Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Graham has more CoH than Lawson spent all of last cycle.

[Miles]

Hasner won't challenge Murphy in CD18.

[Miles]

Its going to be messed up if there's a new Congressman from FL-19 before there's one from NC-12.

[Miles]

Ros-Lethenin in hot water?

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[Miles]

AFP is also spending $400K against Grayson.

Did they get the memo that his district is over 60% Obama now?

[Miles]

Adam, just a suggestion, but having that much linked text is kinda obnoxious. I'd try to just link a handful of words or so.

[Miles]

FL-18: Allen West's candidate, Ellen Andel, is dropping out.

[Miles]

Fundraising about even in CD2:

Southerland- $510K, $1.2M CoH
Graham- $485K, $1.4M CoH

[Miles]

How bout that; good news for Dems. Rothenberg moves FL-18 from Tossup/Tilt D to Lean D.

[Miles]

Just trying to draw them in DRA, CD10 still looks 52%-ish McCain but Obama looks like he barely won CD7. The precincts in the area are small and there's not much for me to go by, so I could be wrong.

[Miles]

Yep, it would have been really helpful for them to include a more detailed view of Orlando, as thats the most impacted area. There are lots of small urban precincts so its hard to keep track.

It depends on how much of its Orange County precincts they changed around, but CD7 looks like it flipped from barely McCain to barely Obama. It took in Sanford from CD5 (very D) and looks like it lost several swingy/mildly R precincts closer to Orlando.

Overall, good strategy by the Republicans. Mica took the bigger hit, but he's more entrenched than Webster, who's seat looks about the same.

Edit: From Rougemapper at RRH:

CD7: 50.7/49.3 Obama (from 50.3/49.7 McCain)
CD10: 51.6/48.4 McCain (from 52.4/47.6 McCain)

[Miles]

DKE crunched the 2012 numbers for the new map.

CD5: Obama +43 -> Obama +38
CD7: Romney +5 -> Romney +3
CD9: Obama +25 -> Obama +21
CD10: Romney +8 -> Romney +5

[Miles]

FL-02: 'Decent take by Reuters on Graham.

[Miles]

FL-02: Southerland is one of the incumbents that worries GOP strategists the most:

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[Miles]

Roll Call report on CD2.

[Miles]

CD18: Murphy has another strong quarter:

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[Miles]

CD2: Southerland up 45/39 in internal poll. He's also picked up the fundraising pace, bringing in $620K in Q3, after being outraised in the previous two quarters.

[Miles]

LOL, Southerland was still outraised.

[Miles]

House Republican PAC spending $600K (!) on Southerland.

[Miles]

Graham wouldn't vote for Pelosi as leader.