Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[smoltchanov]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

[smoltchanov]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

No, not at all - this is Bob Graham's kid, which outweighs the ideological factors.

Good then..

[smoltchanov]

Radel is resigning.

Safe R, if i understand correctly.

[smoltchanov]

Well, Bullard could be best. Well-known, not especially liberal. But - Black, and i can't imagine this R+12 Southern conservative district to elect even very moderate Black (even less - a Democrat)

[smoltchanov]

Dwight Bullard is a very liberal candidate and defeated a more conservative Democrat in the primary for his Senate seat. He is also not well-known - none of his district overlaps with FL-19 and the vast bulk of his campaigning would have been in different media markets than Ft. Myers and Naples. More importantly, he lives in Miami - not Naples and not Ft. Myers. Not sure what NYExpress is thinking.

The only serious candidates for this seat will be fmr. State Rep. Paige Kreegel, Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, and fmr. Rep. Connie Mack IV.

I mistook him for his mother, probably. She did't had an especially high ratings from liberal organizations (and decent - from conservatively inclined) on Vote Smart. Sorry. No chances for Democrats then. At all. Can you describe positions of Republicans (except well-known Mack)? Usual tea-party???

[smoltchanov]

Dwight Bullard is a very liberal candidate and defeated a more conservative Democrat in the primary for his Senate seat. He is also not well-known - none of his district overlaps with FL-19 and the vast bulk of his campaigning would have been in different media markets than Ft. Myers and Naples. More importantly, he lives in Miami - not Naples and not Ft. Myers. Not sure what NYExpress is thinking.

The only serious candidates for this seat will be fmr. State Rep. Paige Kreegel, Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, and fmr. Rep. Connie Mack IV.

I mistook him for his mother, probably. She did't had an especially high ratings from liberal organizations (and decent - from conservatively inclined) on Vote Smart. Sorry. No chances for Democrats then. At all. Can you describe positions of Republicans (except well-known Mack)? Usual tea-party???

The race is still young, so there's not that much ideological distinction - a PAC backing Kreegel has already begun attacking Benacquisto for running ads to promote her campaign for State Senate as being unspecific and serving to promote her as a candidate for Congress (she still hasn't declared), and the RPOF has attacked that PAC, so Kreegel will most likely be backed by his donors (he has many) and Benacquisto will be backed by the RPOF establishment. There's also the possibility of powerful State Sen. Jack Latvala backing Benacquisto - Benacquisto supports Joe Negron for the Senate Presidency, but if she leaves, her seat's open and Latvala-backed State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen can grab it.

Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

Gwen Graham has outraised and has more cash on hand than Steve Southerland for the 2nd quarter in a row.


I'm feeling pretty confident about this race.

IMHO - too early. This district has rather conservative past tradition (though - more conservative Democratic then conservative Republican), and i am always very apprehensive about Democratic perspectives in such districts. Most of them still have rather heavy Democratic registration advantage, but this in no way prevents them from going Republican on regular basis

Tossup for me...