Florida 2014 Congressional Races

[Donerail]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

[Donerail]

Bold prediction - folks here will begin to hate the FDP. I see them as having a shot in FL-02, FL-10 maybe, FL-13 - and that’s about it as far as pickups go.

What other districts are actually competitive though?

FL-27 and FL-25 are competitive on paper, but not while IRL and Diaz-Balart are in office. Same with FL-07 and Mica. Some say FL-16 and FL-19 are possible due to Buchanan and Radel's scandals, but they're fool's gold.

Val Demings ran a great campaign in FL-10 last year and came up way short, so unless the FDP wins their redistricting lawsuit (Which would likely turn FL-10 into a safe Orlando-centric district), I seriously doubt Webster looses.

On the sunny side, Patrick Murphy is a fundraising champion and is apparently popular in FL-18, and his re-election chances look better by the day. Joe Garcia in FL-26 is still in danger, we'll see if the scandal regarding his Chief of Staff does serious damage. And for pick-ups, FL-13 looks like a sure pick-up, but stories about Sink's so-far non-existent campaign give me pause.

I'm very excited about Gwen Graham in FL-02, and currently consider it one of the non-open R-held seats most likely to flip in 2014.

This is an excellent summary - Ross (FL-15) is the only other I can think of, but the Dem bench there is ridiculously weak (isn't it always?). IRL's district is the more competitive of the two, but not with IRL. I like FL-16 over FL-19 as pickable, but yeah, it's still far away from the others. Demings was talking about running again, but is running for Orange County Mayor instead. Rest is accurate, and I'll second the Sink non-campaign campaign (but I live in south county and she doesn't have an office south of Seminole) - but her fundraising totals in particular give me pause. Jolly is outraising her among Pinellas donors, and 83% of her donors are out of county.

[Donerail]

One question i always wanted to ask - isn't Graham at least "somewhat too liberal" for FL-2? As i remember that district - it always (until 2010) had a conservative Democratic tradition with such congressmen as Fuqua, Grant, Peterson, Boyd. It includes a lot of counties, which were typically Dixiecratic at least until recently. May be - somewhat more conservative candidate would be better here?

No, not at all - this is Bob Graham's kid, which outweighs the ideological factors.

[Donerail]

Talk Show Host Bill Cunningham

That would be difficult, seeing as he lives in Ohio.

State Sen Anitere Flores (District 37)

This would also be difficult, as she lives in Miami.

State Representative Kevin Rader (81st district)

Lives in Palm Beach County.

State Representative Larry Lee Jr. (District 84)

Port St. Lucie.

State Senator Dwight Bullard (District 39).

Well, Bullard could be best. Well-known, not especially liberal. But - Black, and i can't imagine this R+12 Southern conservative district to elect even very moderate Black (even less - a Democrat)

Dwight Bullard is a very liberal candidate and defeated a more conservative Democrat in the primary for his Senate seat. He is also not well-known - none of his district overlaps with FL-19 and the vast bulk of his campaigning would have been in different media markets than Ft. Myers and Naples. More importantly, he lives in Miami - not Naples and not Ft. Myers. Not sure what NYExpress is thinking.

The only serious candidates for this seat will be fmr. State Rep. Paige Kreegel, Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, and fmr. Rep. Connie Mack IV.

[Donerail]

Dwight Bullard is a very liberal candidate and defeated a more conservative Democrat in the primary for his Senate seat. He is also not well-known - none of his district overlaps with FL-19 and the vast bulk of his campaigning would have been in different media markets than Ft. Myers and Naples. More importantly, he lives in Miami - not Naples and not Ft. Myers. Not sure what NYExpress is thinking.

The only serious candidates for this seat will be fmr. State Rep. Paige Kreegel, Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, and fmr. Rep. Connie Mack IV.

I mistook him for his mother, probably. She did't had an especially high ratings from liberal organizations (and decent - from conservatively inclined) on Vote Smart. Sorry. No chances for Democrats then. At all. Can you describe positions of Republicans (except well-known Mack)? Usual tea-party???

The race is still young, so there's not that much ideological distinction - a PAC backing Kreegel has already begun attacking Benacquisto for running ads to promote her campaign for State Senate as being unspecific and serving to promote her as a candidate for Congress (she still hasn't declared), and the RPOF has attacked that PAC, so Kreegel will most likely be backed by his donors (he has many) and Benacquisto will be backed by the RPOF establishment. There's also the possibility of powerful State Sen. Jack Latvala backing Benacquisto - Benacquisto supports Joe Negron for the Senate Presidency, but if she leaves, her seat's open and Latvala-backed State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen can grab it.

[Donerail]

Mack is out.

[Donerail]

Sink skipped another debate today. Really thinking she'll blow this race.

[Donerail]

Benacquisto is in, Goss is out.

The FL-13 debate will be streaming here. It'll be featuring the first Libertarian to get into a nationally televised debate, so that should be interesting.

[Donerail]

The Libertarians nominated a diving instructor and he had a better debate performance than Alex Sink.

[Donerail]

Bumping since Graham pulled in $485K this quarter and has $1.4M CoH.

[Donerail]

FL-19 primary is tomorrow.

[Donerail]

Curt Clawson will be the next Representative from FL-19.

[Donerail]

Nevermind on that then.

[Donerail]

The filing deadline is tomorrow. DCCC still doesn't have a candidate. Justice is out, Long is out, Ehrlich is out, Sykes is out. No idea who Dems will field here.

[Donerail]

The filing deadline is tomorrow. DCCC still doesn't have a candidate. Justice is out, Long is out, Ehrlich is out, Sykes is out. No idea who Dems will field here.

I guess Sink again? Maybe Kriseman?

Sink has said she's not running again, and Kriseman just got elected - optics wouldn't be good for him to run for Congress now, especially since he's got a big new plan on the Pier coming out today. Eric Lynn (who I'd never heard of, but who apparently is a foreign policy advisor in the administration) is also not running.

The only name I've heard being mentioned recently is a guy named Joel Cantor, who's a real estate investor. He has similar residency issues to Sink, seeming to split his time between here and Colorado and living in upscale Tampa, though he does also have a beachfront condo. He seems a reluctant candidate - part of the reason the DCCC is bullying other candidates out of the race to give him a clear field. He's also a self-funder, but the opposite side of that coin is that he has ties to Wall Street and has given money to the RPOF and RNC.

Edit: It's believed Cantor's wife is registered to vote in Colorado, though my attempt to check that with Colorado's voter records has been fruitless. He also doesn't have a homestead on his condo in St. Pete Beach; his home in Colorado is listed as his personal residence.

[Donerail]

Relevant.

[Donerail]

There will be no FL-13 candidate with a D after his name. The DCCC is backing some guy from Tampa (doesn't even live in the district) who's unknown in local politics, has never held office, and is running as an NPA. Someone really needs to send the DCCC a memo reminding them that FL-13 is in Pinellas, not Hillsborough.

[Donerail]

There will be no FL-13 candidate with a D after his name. The DCCC is backing some guy from Tampa (doesn't even live in the district) who's unknown in local politics, has never held office, and is running as an NPA. Someone really needs to send the DCCC a memo reminding them that FL-13 is in Pinellas, not Hillsborough.

I read he lives in St. Petersburg, which is better.

Politics1 lists Joe Shea as the Democratic candidate. What is his story?

State website has only Jolly, Jany, Overby and a write-in as having filed, and since the deadline was today...

[Donerail]

Jany is dropping out. Move this one to Safe R.

[Donerail]

Libertarian +1.

Actually, the Libertarian in the race isn't a bad candidate - decent name recognition from his run in the special, where he got around 5% of the vote and was included in debates/polling. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get in the 20s or 30s here.

[Donerail]

We may be changing districts. The Judge can order a redrawing if he finds the current districts were drawn for partisan purposes (hint: Corrine Brown's probably was).

[Donerail]

Oh, btw, it looks like this Terry Lewis guy was a Democratic appointee. Do we know anything else about him?

Yep, I live in FL-14. Be nice to have the same representative as the rest of St. Pete.

Lewis is known as a quiet, independent, and fair judge. Chiles appointee, FSU grad, and I'm pretty sure he's a native of Leon County. He overruled our parental notification law and presided over part of the 2000 election controversy. He has also written three Grisham-style legal thrillers. Seems like he'll give Dems a fair shot, at least.

[Donerail]

FL Dems gonna FLDem.

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[Donerail]

So that whole redistricting process

WaPo is saying it's likely a redraw will be forced before the midterms. A redraw under strict Fair Districts would at a minimum means the Castor seat doesn't touch Pinellas. FL-13 becomes a lot more Democratic, Dems could pickup 4.

[Donerail]

So that whole redistricting process

WaPo is saying it's likely a redraw will be forced before the midterms. A redraw under strict Fair Districts would at a minimum means the Castor seat doesn't touch Pinellas. FL-13 becomes a lot more Democratic, Dems could pickup 4.

If this is the article to which you refer, I think your use of the term "likely" may be an overstatement. I find the emphasis on intent rather than results itself problematical. Either the lines followed the law, or they did not. I find it odd that all of this is coming to a head at this late date in any event. Were not these issues hashed out previously?

Probably; I just saw a few quotes from it on Twitter. Now that I'm actually sitting down to read it, possibly is a better term.

The focus on intent is because the relevant section of the Florida Constitution specifically discusses intent.

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So the reason this is happening now: in 2010 the Fair Districts amendments were passed, and the current maps were passed in 2012. The Florida SC forced the legislature to redraw the Senate map, which is still subject to a pending lawsuit. The Congressional map wasn't subject to automatic facial review before the FLSC, so a lawsuit was filed to challenge the map, but the Legislature managed to draw out the clock until after the 2012 election, which is why we're here now.