Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[Never]

^ Admittedly, the current numbers aren't indicative of a wave, but sometimes we don't see wave-like numbers for a political party in the summer even when a wave actually occurs for the party that election year.

On 6/29/2010, the Democrats had a 0.4% lead in the generic congressional ballot, but the Republicans ended up leading by 9.4% in the final average of congressional polls taken from the last week of October 2010. If we saw a shift that large this year in the Republican's favor between now and November, the generic congressional ballot would move from the current Democratic lead of 1.4% to a Republican lead of 8.4%. I wouldn't go so far as to say that kind of shift will happen this year, but it wouldn't be without precedent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

[Tender Branson]

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

41% Dems
39% GOP

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

46% GOP
44% Dems

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46% GOP
44% Dems

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2058

[Landon1993]

Considering the Democrats are leading in 2/3 of the generic polls; a situation which did not occur in 2010, a Republican wave in Democratic leaning districts is highly unlikely. My prediction is Dems pick up 1-5 seats in the house. I will also just mention that I underestimated how many seats the Dems would pick up in 2012, a net gain of +8 was at the high end of what I would have predicted.The reason for this is that the Democrats seem to be outperforming the RCP Polling AVG. in recent years

2014 RCP AVG: Dem +1.5% Result: ?
2012 RCP AVG: Rep +0.2% Result: Dem +1.2%
2010 RCP AVG: REP +9.4% Result: Rep +6.8%
2008 RCP AVG: Dem +9.0% Result: Dem +10.7%

[IceSpear]

Pew: D+2

[IceSpear]

CNN: D+4

This Republican wave I keep hearing about is running out of time to materialize...

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

[eric82oslo]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

Exactly. Democrats have lead or tied for the past 15 generic congressional polls now going back all the way to the beginning of June. And for the past 23 generic polls, all the way back to the beginning of May, Republicans have just had the lead in one single one. Doesn't exactly scream a Republican landslide take over to me either.

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

Exactly. Democrats have lead or tied for the past 15 generic congressional polls now going back all the way to the beginning of June. And for the past 23 generic polls, all the way back to the beginning of May, Republicans have just had the lead in one single one. Doesn't exactly scream a Republican landslide take over to me either.

They have their narrative and they're sticking to it...

[TrueMan]

Back in 2010, when Democrats lost 63 House seats to Republicans, voters were less negative than they are now. So, that means our elected representatives ought to start packing, right?

[ElectionsGuy]

Lets keep in mind that democrats need (probably) at least a 2 point lead in the generic congressional polls in order to gain seats in the house, and they would probably need at least an 8 point lead to take over the house, with the way its gerrymandered and set up.

[IceSpear]

Lets keep in mind that democrats need (probably) at least a 2 point lead in the generic congressional polls in order to gain seats in the house, and they would probably need at least an 8 point lead to take over the house, with the way its gerrymandered and set up.

Oh, I'm not saying Democrats will take the House or even gain seats. I'm just mocking the "Republican wave!/2010 redux!" media narrative.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

People seem to forget that in 2010, Democrats had complete and utter control of the government. So anyone who was upset with things during the great recession, would cast a protest vote against the Democrats.

Now Republicans aren't the fresh faced party of change and a way to stop Obama's agenda. They have had power for close to 4 years now and we have seen the results. Government shut down, taking America to the brink over the debt default and radical right wing extremist Tea Partiers holding the country hostage. Obama is only at around 42 % approval, but congress is at around 15 %, and is universally hated when Republicans control the house.

I don't expect a wave when Republicans have shared the blame with Obama since 2010 for people's dissatisfaction with the government.

[andrew_c]

Generic congressional polls have generally underestimated GOP support while overestimating Democrat support. Based on current trends, GOP are on track to gain at least a dozen seats.
By the way, most marginal house seats are held by Democrats.

[IceSpear]

Generic congressional polls have generally underestimated GOP support while overestimating Democrat support. Based on current trends, GOP are on track to gain at least a dozen seats.
By the way, most marginal house seats are held by Democrats.

This is factually untrue. In fact, in the last 3 elections, the generic ballot has underestimated DEMOCRATIC support.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2008_generic_congressional_vote-2173.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Generic congressional polls have generally underestimated GOP support while overestimating Democrat support. Based on current trends, GOP are on track to gain at least a dozen seats.
By the way, most marginal house seats are held by Democrats.

This is factually untrue. In fact, in the last 3 elections, the generic ballot has underestimated DEMOCRATIC support.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_generic_congressional_vote-3525.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2008_generic_congressional_vote-2173.html

It seemed like the Democrats losing 63 House seats in 2010 was worse than predicted though. Of course estimating seats lost from the margin can be hard. I don't get the sense that 2008 or 2012 were worse than predicted. Of course 2012 would have been a lot better without the gerrymandering. The old districts were somewhat gerrymandered for Republicans, but nothing like the new districts.

[Landon1993]

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

[GaussLaw]

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

Ras just fluctuates like crazy on the Generic Ballot. 

I wouldn't call it a wave, but I think when we go RV -> LV for all polls, we'll probably see even or R+1.

[Miles]

WaPo/ABC

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?

Approve- 41%
Disapprove- 51%

Q2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Democratic Party?

Favorable- 49%
Unfavorable- 46%

Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Republican Party?

Favorable- 35%
Unfavorable- 60%

[IceSpear]

WaPo/ABC

Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?

Approve- 41%
Disapprove- 51%

Q2. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Democratic Party?

Favorable- 49%
Unfavorable- 46%

Q3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of The Republican Party?

Favorable- 35%
Unfavorable- 60%

With numbers like that, you'd think Democrats would be leading by more on the generic ballot than they actually are. Strange.

[IceSpear]

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

Apparently not. CBS poll released today: D+4.

[Miles]

WaPo: Democrats lead 41-37 overall, but trail 40-47 with enthusiastic voters.

[IceSpear]

WaPo: Democrats lead 41-37 overall, but trail 40-47 with enthusiastic voters.

Luckily, as we saw in 2012, an unenthusaistic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one.

[Never]

McClatchy-Marist:

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McClatchy says that Independents are breaking for Republicans more than they did in prior polls.

[Miles]

^

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Typo in the tweet. The 64/19 is with blacks.

[Landon1993]

I think we need to see the real clear politics average move from D +1 before we say there will be a Republican wave. What we do know is that the democrats  are doing poorly in head to head  match-ups in battleground districts, and not surprisingly polls of individual races which tend to be more accurate in predicting the end result.