Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[Tender Branson]

So we don't need to create a thread all the time if a poll pops up ...

QUINNIPIAC:

1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

38-37 GOP

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

41-53 disapprove

7. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

46-42 GOP

8. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46-44 GOP

From January 4 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1993

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Odd turn of events when Rasmussen favors the Dems. I'm curious as to whether or not they're becoming a Democratic-leaning outlier. There's a 10 point gap between the approval ratings in Gallup and Rasmussen.
Rasmussen Reports

1. Generic Congressional Ballot (January 6th-12th)

41-37 Democrats

2. Obama Approval Rating

50-49 Approve (January 15th)

[Gass3268]

Odd turn of events when Rasmussen favors the Dems. I'm curious as to whether or not they're becoming a Democratic-leaning outlier. There's a 10 point gap between the approval ratings in Gallup and Rasmussen.
Rasmussen Reports

1. Generic Congressional Ballot (January 6th-12th)

41-37 Democrats

2. Obama Approval Rating

50-49 Approve (January 15th)

There change in leanings seems to connected to Scotty leaving.

[IceSpear]

Rasmussen: D+6

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

#Dominating
#ExcellentNews

[Miles]

ABC/WaPo: Rs leads 46-45.

[Miles]

I don't understand how Rassy has Hagan down 7 but also has Democrats leading 42-37 on the generic ballot.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Over-correction maybe?

[Miles]

PPP: 42-40 R.

[Miles]

Big swing for Rasmussen; Republicans +1.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Really starting to get a "mimic other pollsters" feel out of Rassy.

[Joshgreen]

PPP finds a 3-point Dem lead: 43-40 but given their disastrous new methodology take this with a mountain of salt.

[Miles]

NBC/WSJ: A Democrat who favors fixing the ACA beats a Republican who opposes it 48-47.

Too bad an actual Republican who favors repeal beat an actual Democrat who favors fixing it 49-47.

Voters narrowly want a Republican Congress, 44-43.

[Tender Branson]

New George Washington University Battleground poll for POLITICO:

43% GOP
43% DEM

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[Harry Hayfield]

Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?

[JerryArkansas]

Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?

In America, yeah there is more to it.  If someone retires from a certain seat, it can become competitive or uncompetitive.  It is up to a point up to the candidates running.

[Miles]

Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?

In America, yeah there is more to it.  If someone retires from a certain seat, it can become competitive or uncompetitive.  It is up to a point up to the candidates running.

^ As Jerry says, you have to consider more than the ostensible numbers.

MN-06 is now Safe R. Bachmann is retiring. She was an extremely flawed and controversial Republican who almost lost in 2012; a sane Republican will have an easy time holding the seat.

I'd trade NE-02 and IN-02 for OH-14 and IA-03.

[Frodo]

AP poll points to GOP edge ahead of midterms

By Kate Tummarello
April 06, 2014, 04:22 pm

According to the poll, which was conducted last month, 36 percent of respondents would rather see Democrats controlling Congress, while 37 percent said they would refer Republicans be in charge.

This is a change from a poll in January, when 39 percent of respondents said they wanted Democrats to control Congress, and 32 percent said they favored Republicans.

Voters who are most strongly interested in politics are more likely to favor Republicans, according to the poll, with 51 percent favoring Republicans and 37 percent favoring Democrats.

Overall, the Republican Party is viewed more favorably than it has been in the past, with 38 percent of respondents saying they “hold a favorable impression” of the GOP, the poll found.
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Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/202778-ap-poll-points-to-gop-edge#ixzz2y9ZECqhh

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think the public has fully paid attention yet. And there is a delayed response to Obamacare news. The GOP has the edge in House but in statewide elections Govs and Senate, chance for Dems.

[Tender Branson]

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

[windjammer]

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

[Never]

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

I wonder what is making the public turn against the Democrats this year. Perhaps it is a compounding of various events, instead of one striking issue. I don't think the turn against the Democrats is solely due to Obamacare.

I agree that it seems like the Republicans are headed for a big win this November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is his second midterm, which is aways tough for Inc party. The Dems have to run on policy in a jobless recovery. Should the GOP excel, they already maxed out gains in 2010, +70 in House, it won't be that much of a wave but a GOP yr. But it is only May.

[GaussLaw]

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

I wonder what is making the public turn against the Democrats this year. Perhaps it is a compounding of various events, instead of one striking issue. I don't think the turn against the Democrats is solely due to Obamacare.

I agree that it seems like the Republicans are headed for a big win this November.

Simple, Benghazi is being covered a lot on FOX and their minions are engaged and rabid right now.

[Miles]

Rassy: 39D 37R

[IceSpear]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html