Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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  Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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Author Topic: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread  (Read 13807 times)
GaussLaw
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« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2014, 08:22:11 PM »

I think we need to see the real clear politics average move from D +1 before we say there will be a Republican wave. What we do know is that the democrats  are doing poorly in head to head  match-ups in battleground districts, and not surprisingly polls of individual races which tend to be more accurate in predicting the end result.

RV -> LV will turn this into a lean GOP, as in R+1 to R+2 type of year.  For this to be a wave, the GOP needs to do something pretty incredible or Obama needs to really **** up in Iraq.
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Miles
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« Reply #51 on: August 14, 2014, 08:52:31 PM »

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!
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Flake
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« Reply #52 on: August 14, 2014, 11:53:28 PM »

but its gonna be a 2010 landslide again because that's what everyone is saying right
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IceSpear
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« Reply #53 on: August 15, 2014, 04:56:21 PM »

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

#2010redux #GOPlandslide
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #54 on: August 15, 2014, 06:54:49 PM »

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

Imagine the looks on their faces when they reported this.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #55 on: August 15, 2014, 08:42:51 PM »

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

Imagine the looks on their faces when they reported this.

LOL.

The generic ballot polls are literally all over the place.  There's zero consensus and they range from R+5 to D+7.  It's quite an unpredictable year.
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KCDem
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« Reply #56 on: August 15, 2014, 08:59:26 PM »

Quote
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The Marist poll was an obvious outlier if you look at the aggregate. The Fox poll may be as well.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #57 on: August 16, 2014, 05:36:52 PM »

I wonder if realclearpolitics.com will be able to come up with an excuse to exclude it from the average.
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King
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« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2014, 09:14:29 AM »

I'd say the truth is currently D+1, which won't change the House. I'm not sure D+7 would either, which is just the kind of joke the House districts are right now.
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Landon1993
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« Reply #59 on: August 19, 2014, 06:15:20 PM »

That Fox Poll showing the Dems +7 is Balogna.
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Miles
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« Reply #60 on: August 26, 2014, 11:22:17 AM »

Pew Research Center: Democrats lead 47/42 on the generic ballot, but Republicans are twice as likely to feel optimistic about the midterms.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #61 on: August 26, 2014, 06:55:27 PM »

Pew Research Center: Democrats lead 47/42 on the generic ballot, but Republicans are twice as likely to feel optimistic about the midterms.

Well considering the media and pundits have been endlessly ranting about a GOP wave/2010 redux for a while now, it's not surprising Republicans are more optimistic. What is surprising is that the media continues to try to drive this narrative despite it contradicting their own polling data.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #62 on: August 27, 2014, 08:56:23 AM »

Pew Research Center: Democrats lead 47/42 on the generic ballot, but Republicans are twice as likely to feel optimistic about the midterms.

Well considering the media and pundits have been endlessly ranting about a GOP wave/2010 redux for a while now, it's not surprising Republicans are more optimistic. What is surprising is that the media continues to try to drive this narrative despite it contradicting their own polling data.

Republicans will have to win the expectations game now. It will not be that demoralize to Dems if they still have like 48 or 49 seats. Republicans will be crushed if they lose.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #63 on: September 03, 2014, 07:40:13 AM »

George Washington University Battleground Poll:

46% GOP
42% DEM

Obama approval:

44-51 disapprove

The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Aug. 24 through Aug. 28, and included a protocol for reaching mobile phone users. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://mediarelations.gwu.edu/economy-will-drive-midterm-elections-gw-battleground-poll-shows
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #64 on: September 09, 2014, 12:12:56 AM »

WaPo/ABC Poll:

RV:
46% DEM
44% GOP

LV:
47% GOP
44% DEM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-public-supports-strikes-in-iraq-syria-obamas-ratings-hover-near-his-all-time-lows/2014/09/08/69c164d8-3789-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html?hpid=z1
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njwes
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« Reply #65 on: September 09, 2014, 04:13:29 PM »

CNN/Opinion Research
September 5 to September 7
Likely Voters

Republicans: 49
Democrats: 45

Reps +4


Definite trend in the last week toward the Republicans on the generic ballot, though this doesn't seem to be showing up in the Senate race polling, unless I'm missing something. Maybe the distribution of Rep vs Dem votes across the country? LV vs RV sampling?
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #66 on: September 09, 2014, 04:19:36 PM »

I think it's more than everyone is switching to LV models than any sort of actual movement.
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njwes
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« Reply #67 on: September 09, 2014, 05:16:32 PM »

I think it's more than everyone is switching to LV models than any sort of actual movement.

That's a fair point, it makes me wonder why polling companies don't just use the LV model all the time.
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mypalfish
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« Reply #68 on: September 11, 2014, 05:20:28 PM »
« Edited: September 11, 2014, 05:22:40 PM by mypalfish »

Fox News Poll

Likely Voters

GOP 47%
DEM 40%

Registered Voters

GOP 45%
DEM 41%

GOP leads 39-21 among Independents in this poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #69 on: September 11, 2014, 05:36:43 PM »

Did FOX seriously just go from D+7 to R+7 in a month? When nothing particularly interesting or game changing happened in said month?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #70 on: September 15, 2014, 06:57:06 AM »

I think it's more than everyone is switching to LV models than any sort of actual movement.

That's a fair point, it makes me wonder why polling companies don't just use the LV model all the time.

Because you can't use a LV model until you know who the LVs are.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #71 on: September 15, 2014, 04:36:26 PM »

BREAKING: REPUBLICAN WAVE COLLAPSES, DEMOCRATS SURGE BACK INTO A 3% LEAD
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IceSpear
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« Reply #72 on: September 15, 2014, 05:20:39 PM »


LOL. Man, Ras is all over the place this cycle.
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Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
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« Reply #73 on: September 15, 2014, 05:31:41 PM »


Look up "Schizophrenic" in a dictionary, it says Rasmussen Reports.
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KCDem
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« Reply #74 on: September 15, 2014, 06:51:13 PM »


Good to see the Lady of San Francisco on her way to ride the Boehner out of the Capitol.
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