Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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  Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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Author Topic: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread  (Read 13806 times)
Never
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« Reply #75 on: September 17, 2014, 07:25:24 AM »

CBS News/New York Times has Republicans up 6 points among likely voters:

GOP: 45%
Dems: 39%

Independents favor the GOP by a 9 point margin (40/31).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #76 on: September 30, 2014, 09:06:40 AM »

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... Tongue

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #77 on: September 30, 2014, 09:25:18 AM »

Dominating.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #78 on: September 30, 2014, 09:26:56 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2014, 09:29:39 AM by eric82oslo »

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... Tongue

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Not only that, but Rasmussen's latest generic ballot from yesterday showed Democrats ahead by 1% among likely voters. Cheesy Maybe it's the massive requests of in mail ballots all across the country by Democratic voters that is finally starting to make its impact. Wink

Taken together, CNN and Rasmussen polled 4,200 likely voters, so it doesn't have to be a statistical fluke either. Tongue Also, Obama's disapproval numbers have been massively scaled back in almost every poll during the past week. He's in the single digits everywhere now, while most pollsters had him in the double digits before that.
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rbt48
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« Reply #79 on: September 30, 2014, 03:24:03 PM »

He is benefiting from being viewed as a War President.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #80 on: September 30, 2014, 07:01:22 PM »

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... Tongue

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

#2010redux
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #81 on: September 30, 2014, 07:06:02 PM »

He is benefiting from being viewed as a War President.

I had always suspected that action against ISIS, being broadly popular with the public, would benefit the incumbent party on net.  There is evidence of some modest improvement, let's see if it continues.
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Never
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« Reply #82 on: September 30, 2014, 07:10:01 PM »

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... Tongue

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Including leaners, the sample was 47-45 Democrat, so it's not too surprising to see this kind of Democrat lead in the generic ballot with that in mind.

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ... Tongue

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Not only that, but Rasmussen's latest generic ballot from yesterday showed Democrats ahead by 1% among likely voters. Cheesy Maybe it's the massive requests of in mail ballots all across the country by Democratic voters that is finally starting to make its impact. Wink

Taken together, CNN and Rasmussen polled 4,200 likely voters, so it doesn't have to be a statistical fluke either. Tongue Also, Obama's disapproval numbers have been massively scaled back in almost every poll during the past week. He's in the single digits everywhere now, while most pollsters had him in the double digits before that.

Can we really use Rasmussen to corroborate CNN's numbers? I want to see some more generic congressional ballot polls, though CNN could very well be accurate.
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Miles
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« Reply #83 on: October 03, 2014, 10:43:09 AM »

NPR: Republicans up 48/45.
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Never
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« Reply #84 on: October 03, 2014, 11:20:52 AM »

Fox: For likely voters, Republicans up 7 with leaners (47/40), and 7 without (44/37).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #85 on: October 03, 2014, 11:40:47 AM »

Marist:

D+1

Obama has a 46-51 approval.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/103-voters-remain-dissatisfied-with-congress-uneasy-about-their-finances-and-the-countrys-direction
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Never
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« Reply #86 on: October 03, 2014, 11:50:40 AM »


46%? That approval rating sounds a bit too high, only Rasmussen has something comparable.
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KCDem
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« Reply #87 on: October 03, 2014, 10:16:29 PM »


I see the unskewing continues unabashed. Typical Republican spin.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #88 on: October 06, 2014, 12:17:30 PM »

It's somewhat noteworthy that recent polls have Obama's approval creeping back up into the mid-40's.  That would seem to set this campaign season apart from 2006.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #89 on: October 06, 2014, 06:29:08 PM »

3 of the last 4 national polls released (from Rasmussen, Marist and CNN) have had Democrats ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Cheesy

And yes, Obama's approval numbers keep getting better as well, especially with the two leading pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen. Smiley

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
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IceSpear
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« Reply #90 on: October 06, 2014, 08:24:21 PM »

Regardless, it seems pretty clear that this won't be another 2010. In the entire month of October in 2010, Dems only lead in 2 generic ballot polls.
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Miles
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« Reply #91 on: October 08, 2014, 01:05:46 PM »

Suffolk in NC: Democrats lead 46/45.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #92 on: October 08, 2014, 06:39:18 PM »

CBS has R+6, which is actually 1 point less than their last poll which was R+7. #Demwavebuilding

But seriously, pretty bad news. It seems like there's two groups of pollsters: one which sees a virtual stalemate, and one which sees an impending Republican wave. One group is going to look very silly in a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-obama-be-a-driving-force-for-midterm-voters/
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #93 on: October 08, 2014, 06:41:27 PM »

CBS has R+6, which is actually 1 point less than their last poll which was R+7. #Demwavebuilding

But seriously, pretty bad news. It seems like there's two groups of pollsters: one which sees a virtual stalemate, and one which sees an impending Republican wave. One group is going to look very silly in a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-obama-be-a-driving-force-for-midterm-voters/

Indeed.  The bimodal distribution is weird.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #94 on: October 08, 2014, 08:31:32 PM »

The same thing is sort of showing up in some races as well. Michigan governor, Iowa senate, Colorado senate...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #95 on: October 10, 2014, 02:29:14 AM »

Just when you thought things couldn't get any weirder...

Reason-Rupe has Democrats ahead by 9 points. Their last poll in August was D+1...

http://reason.com/assets/db/14128084586864.pdf
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King
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« Reply #96 on: October 10, 2014, 10:48:07 AM »

lol
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IceSpear
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« Reply #97 on: October 10, 2014, 06:27:22 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2014, 06:28:53 PM by IceSpear »

Gallup: R+1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Gallup_101014.pdf

Ipsos: D+1

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13949

Pollster currently has it at an exact tie, 43.5-43.5.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-national-house-race
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #98 on: October 10, 2014, 08:31:03 PM »

dat dem momentum
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IceSpear
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« Reply #99 on: October 10, 2014, 09:00:34 PM »


Yeah, certainly no 2010, that's for sure.

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