Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[Mehmentum]

So the generic ballot is either D +1 or R +11. Okay...

In addition, Politico has it a D +3 and Rasmussen has it at a tie.  R +11 seems to be an outlier unless we get more polls to confirm.

[IceSpear]

So the generic ballot is either D +1 or R +11. Okay...

In addition, Politico has it a D +3 and Rasmussen has it at a tie.  R +11 seems to be an outlier unless we get more polls to confirm.

The AP also has R+8, and a Reason-Rupe poll released a little while ago had D+9.

Some pollsters are going to look really foolish in a little over a week...

[Lief 🗽]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

[IceSpear]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

And Rasmussen has D+2 (43-41). The Dem wave is building!

I thought these pollsters were all going to herd towards some type of consensus toward the end, but it doesn't seem to be happening. This election just got even more unpredictable.

[Lief 🗽]

Of course, the right-wing hacks at RCP entered the Rasmussen poll as R+2 for some reason.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

[Keystone Phil]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

[IceSpear]

Apparently there's some confusion on Ras's poll. Their headline numbers say D+2, but their description says "Republicans have taken the lead on the generic ballot". Who knows which one is the typo.



The link to the article still isn't updated (it has last week's results), so clicking it does no good.

[Mehmentum]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

My guess is that people who don't care which party controls congress are breaking heavily for the Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

My guess is that people who don't care which party controls congress are breaking heavily for the Democrats.

Yeah, generally ignorant people tend to do that.

[GaussLaw]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

My guess is that people who don't care which party controls congress are breaking heavily for the Democrats.

Yeah, generally ignorant people tend to do that.

If someone cares enough to vote for Congress, I don't see why they wouldn't care who controls Congress.  I understand question wording can generate slightly different responses, but still...

[Devils30]

For all the GOP wave talk, the R+11 poll seems to be a big outlier. Most of the recent polls are pretty much split down the middle.

[IceSpear]

For anyone who was waiting with bated breath on Ras's actual result, it was R+2. I'm guessing RCP knew right away because they had a subscription and could actually read the article.

[IceSpear]

WaPo has R+6, more or less the same as their last poll (which was R+7).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-midterm-momentum-belongs-to-gop/2014/10/27/6cb63a74-5e0d-11e4-9f3a-7e28799e0549_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop

[IceSpear]

SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!

FOX shows Democrats leading by 1 point on the generic ballot! (45-44)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/28/fox-news-poll-voters-lack-confidence-in-obama-ebola-czar/

(Don't you love how they bury the lede in the description?)

[KCDem]

SHOCK POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!

FOX shows Democrats leading by 1 point on the generic ballot! (45-44)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/28/fox-news-poll-voters-lack-confidence-in-obama-ebola-czar/

(Don't you love how they bury the lede in the description?)

Excellent news. John Boehner is in for a good thrashing.

[King]

The suspense over which generic poll is right is killing me.

[Lief 🗽]

The ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is a pretty clear outlier at this point (especially when you ignore the junk internet AP poll).

[IceSpear]

CBS: R+8 (up from R+6 in their last poll).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_102914.pdf

This is gonna be a fun election night.

[King]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

[Keystone Phil]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

[KCDem]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

Says the Republican from Pennsylvania who thinks the Kansas fossils will be reelected...

[IceSpear]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

So why do you think FOX and Pew show D+1 then? FOX may just be to get their base in a tizzy to make sure they vote, but Pew is a pretty high quality non partisan pollster.

[Keystone Phil]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815

Harvard poll says R+6 and R+4 for 18-29 year olds which ABC is selling as a story to the masses but is clearly a sign the poll is junk.

The Pathetics around here have gotten to the point where they are literally dismissing polls just because they dislike the findings.

Next Tuesday won't just be for enjoying the GOP Wave; it will be for praying by people like myself for the sad folks here.

So why do you think FOX and Pew show D+1 then? FOX may just be to get their base in a tizzy to make sure they vote, but Pew is a pretty high quality non partisan pollster.

You know what I say about Pew Polling? It stinks!

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/10/30/usa-today-poll-high-anxiety-low-expectations/18118403/

USA Today
LV: D+1
RV: D +5

Here comes the wave!

[Devils30]

If Dems win or tie the congressional vote they sure are not losing the 12 seats that the media seems to be expecting.