Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[eric82oslo]

The pundits keep telling me a GOP wave is a certainty, but it doesn't seem to be panning out so far.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Even more relevant now.

June 25: D+1.4
Now: D+2.5

Exactly. Democrats have lead or tied for the past 15 generic congressional polls now going back all the way to the beginning of June. And for the past 23 generic polls, all the way back to the beginning of May, Republicans have just had the lead in one single one. Doesn't exactly scream a Republican landslide take over to me either.

[eric82oslo]

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ...

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Not only that, but Rasmussen's latest generic ballot from yesterday showed Democrats ahead by 1% among likely voters. Maybe it's the massive requests of in mail ballots all across the country by Democratic voters that is finally starting to make its impact.

Taken together, CNN and Rasmussen polled 4,200 likely voters, so it doesn't have to be a statistical fluke either. Also, Obama's disapproval numbers have been massively scaled back in almost every poll during the past week. He's in the single digits everywhere now, while most pollsters had him in the double digits before that.

[eric82oslo]

3 of the last 4 national polls released (from Rasmussen, Marist and CNN) have had Democrats ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

And yes, Obama's approval numbers keep getting better as well, especially with the two leading pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html