Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

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The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

I wonder what is making the public turn against the Democrats this year. Perhaps it is a compounding of various events, instead of one striking issue. I don't think the turn against the Democrats is solely due to Obamacare.

I agree that it seems like the Republicans are headed for a big win this November.

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^ Admittedly, the current numbers aren't indicative of a wave, but sometimes we don't see wave-like numbers for a political party in the summer even when a wave actually occurs for the party that election year.

On 6/29/2010, the Democrats had a 0.4% lead in the generic congressional ballot, but the Republicans ended up leading by 9.4% in the final average of congressional polls taken from the last week of October 2010. If we saw a shift that large this year in the Republican's favor between now and November, the generic congressional ballot would move from the current Democratic lead of 1.4% to a Republican lead of 8.4%. I wouldn't go so far as to say that kind of shift will happen this year, but it wouldn't be without precedent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

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McClatchy-Marist:

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McClatchy says that Independents are breaking for Republicans more than they did in prior polls.

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CBS News/New York Times has Republicans up 6 points among likely voters:

GOP: 45%
Dems: 39%

Independents favor the GOP by a 9 point margin (40/31).

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CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ...

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Including leaners, the sample was 47-45 Democrat, so it's not too surprising to see this kind of Democrat lead in the generic ballot with that in mind.

CNN says 47-45 for the Democrats in their new poll of likely voters:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/30/9.30.poll.pdf

Republicans led by 4 points in their previous poll.

Hardly consistant with a so-called "Republican-wave" building, as some say ...

At this point in 2010, all polls showed a 5-10% GOP lead.

Not only that, but Rasmussen's latest generic ballot from yesterday showed Democrats ahead by 1% among likely voters. Maybe it's the massive requests of in mail ballots all across the country by Democratic voters that is finally starting to make its impact.

Taken together, CNN and Rasmussen polled 4,200 likely voters, so it doesn't have to be a statistical fluke either. Also, Obama's disapproval numbers have been massively scaled back in almost every poll during the past week. He's in the single digits everywhere now, while most pollsters had him in the double digits before that.

Can we really use Rasmussen to corroborate CNN's numbers? I want to see some more generic congressional ballot polls, though CNN could very well be accurate.

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Fox: For likely voters, Republicans up 7 with leaners (47/40), and 7 without (44/37).

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Marist:

D+1

Obama has a 46-51 approval.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/103-voters-remain-dissatisfied-with-congress-uneasy-about-their-finances-and-the-countrys-direction

46%? That approval rating sounds a bit too high, only Rasmussen has something comparable.