Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[GaussLaw]

The new USAToday/Pew poll points to a GOP-wave in November:



http://www.people-press.org/2014/05/05/midterm-election-indicators-daunting-for-democrats

I wonder what is making the public turn against the Democrats this year. Perhaps it is a compounding of various events, instead of one striking issue. I don't think the turn against the Democrats is solely due to Obamacare.

I agree that it seems like the Republicans are headed for a big win this November.

Simple, Benghazi is being covered a lot on FOX and their minions are engaged and rabid right now.

[GaussLaw]

New Rasmussen poll
Republicans 42%
Democrats 38%

Is the Republican wave materializing? This is the best Rasmussen poll Republicans have has sense after the failed health care.gov roll out last year.

Ras just fluctuates like crazy on the Generic Ballot. 

I wouldn't call it a wave, but I think when we go RV -> LV for all polls, we'll probably see even or R+1.

[GaussLaw]

I think we need to see the real clear politics average move from D +1 before we say there will be a Republican wave. What we do know is that the democrats  are doing poorly in head to head  match-ups in battleground districts, and not surprisingly polls of individual races which tend to be more accurate in predicting the end result.

RV -> LV will turn this into a lean GOP, as in R+1 to R+2 type of year.  For this to be a wave, the GOP needs to do something pretty incredible or Obama needs to really **** up in Iraq.

[GaussLaw]

Fox News:

Democrats- 46%
Republicans- 39%

Favorables

Democrats- 47/45
Republicans- 42/50


Marvelous news!

Imagine the looks on their faces when they reported this.

LOL.

The generic ballot polls are literally all over the place.  There's zero consensus and they range from R+5 to D+7.  It's quite an unpredictable year.

[GaussLaw]

CBS has R+6, which is actually 1 point less than their last poll which was R+7. #Demwavebuilding

But seriously, pretty bad news. It seems like there's two groups of pollsters: one which sees a virtual stalemate, and one which sees an impending Republican wave. One group is going to look very silly in a month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-obama-be-a-driving-force-for-midterm-voters/

Indeed.  The bimodal distribution is weird.

[GaussLaw]

There's a reverse Bradley Effect going on where people don't want to appear bias against white Republicans.

Has this ever been documented before?  I assume you're not being serious, but it's hard to tell on the Internet.

Regardless, Generic Ballot polls vary about 10%.  It's better to trust individual Senate/House polls instead.

[GaussLaw]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

They want the GOP to control it but wouldn't vote for the Republican in a "generic match up?" What?

My guess is that people who don't care which party controls congress are breaking heavily for the Democrats.

Yeah, generally ignorant people tend to do that.

If someone cares enough to vote for Congress, I don't see why they wouldn't care who controls Congress.  I understand question wording can generate slightly different responses, but still...