Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread

[Lief 🗽]

WaPo/ABC Poll:

RV:
46% DEM
44% GOP

LV:
47% GOP
44% DEM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-public-supports-strikes-in-iraq-syria-obamas-ratings-hover-near-his-all-time-lows/2014/09/08/69c164d8-3789-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html?hpid=z1

[Lief 🗽]

I think it's more than everyone is switching to LV models than any sort of actual movement.

[Lief 🗽]

BREAKING: REPUBLICAN WAVE COLLAPSES, DEMOCRATS SURGE BACK INTO A 3% LEAD

[Lief 🗽]

Dominating.

[Lief 🗽]

The same thing is sort of showing up in some races as well. Michigan governor, Iowa senate, Colorado senate...

[Lief 🗽]

dat dem momentum

[Lief 🗽]

NBC/WSJ:

RV: Dems lead 48-43
LV: Doesn't say??
"Most interested voters": GOP leads 51-44

Not sure why they didn't poll LV...

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, the actual NBC/WSJ poll:

LV: 46-44 Republicans
RV: 46-42 Democrats

Republicans led 50-43 in the NBC/WSJ poll this time in 2010.

[Lief 🗽]

Politico has Democrats up slightly.

Makes sense. Republicans are retreating from pickup opportunities like ME-02 while Democrats are surging in deep red seats like AR-02! The Democratic Wave is building!

[Lief 🗽]

Rassmusen

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 41

Republicans are running out of time...

[Lief 🗽]

Pew: Dems lead 47-46

The Democratic Wave continues to build!!

[Lief 🗽]

Pew: Dems lead 47-46

The Democratic Wave continues to build!!

Their last poll was R+3...this is a pretty big deal considering Pew's reputation. I doubt it will interfere with the pundits "2010 redux" narrative though.

Yes, Pew is basically the "gold standard" of national polls. This is very good news for Democrats.

[Lief 🗽]

So the generic ballot is either D +1 or R +11. Okay...

[Lief 🗽]

CNN
LV: Dems lead 47-46
RV: Dems lead 49-43

Dominating!!

Also, the R+11 result in the NBC/WSJ journal isn't really a generic ballot question. They ask which party respondents want to control Congress, not which party they will be voting for. It should be clear why that wording would lead to a more Republican response at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

Of course, the right-wing hacks at RCP entered the Rasmussen poll as R+2 for some reason.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

[Lief 🗽]

The ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is a pretty clear outlier at this point (especially when you ignore the junk internet AP poll).

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/10/30/usa-today-poll-high-anxiety-low-expectations/18118403/

USA Today
LV: D+1
RV: D +5

Here comes the wave!

[Lief 🗽]

Final NBC/WSJ "generic ballot": R+1

Who wants to bet this will get nowhere near the coverage that ridiculous R+11 poll last week got?

[Lief 🗽]

I got polled today by YouGov and they asked questions about Obama's approval and a generic ballot question. So we might get another national YouGov poll tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Final NBC/WSJ "generic ballot": R+1

Who wants to bet this will get nowhere near the coverage that ridiculous R+11 poll last week got?

It's actually a tie, 48-48. Their last poll back in early October was R+1 (48-47).

The problem is that they've been asked a generic ballot question ("who would you vote for in your district") and a preferred control question ("who would you prefer to control Congress") in their polls. Understandably the results have been very different and they've done a very, very bad job of actually distinguished between the two. So it's a tie in the generic ballot (from R+1 earlier in the month) and R+1 in the preferred control question (from R+11 earlier in the month).

Basically NBC/WSJ is horrible and I hate them.