Coup and/or Civil War believed to be imminent.
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  Coup and/or Civil War believed to be imminent.
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Author Topic: Coup and/or Civil War believed to be imminent.  (Read 1565 times)
opebo
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« on: January 09, 2014, 07:22:22 AM »
« edited: January 09, 2014, 10:55:01 AM by opebo »

The 'shutdown Bangkok' event planned by the Yellow side is scheduled to begin on Monday the 13th, and I have to pass through Bangkok in the next few days..  wish me luck.

Things are coming to a head here.  The election court just handed down a decision against the Red government which might bar top members of the current gov't from taking office even if the election is allowed to take place on Feb 2, and Prayuth (the head of the army), is rattling his sabre:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/388621/court-adds-to-govt-poll-woes

http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/388764/prayuth-don-t-force-us-to-take-sides

Bangkok is suddenly full of soldiers again - saw quite a few myself on the streets two days ago, along with sort of mysterious 'special' police..



Lots of my Thai friends - even middle of the road Red-leaners - are beginning to express admiration for Prayuth as a kind of 'strong silent man' or 'man of duty' who will offer a way out of the 'un-Thai' conflict.



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opebo
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2014, 11:00:04 AM »

Just got the latest rumor from my supposedly 'in the know' political scientist colleagues - people are saying there will be a coup in the next three days.  They're all urging me to come back immediately.

I'm going to the bus station tomorrow to try to go back home.  Wonder what I'll find.
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2014, 11:27:20 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2014, 11:31:04 AM by opebo »

Good lord. My Yellow colleagues are just encouraging me to 'come home, dear', but my few really activist Red colleagues are calling me asking me to go to the Embassy tomorrow and try to talk to our few contacts there.  (which is silly because 1.  they're in the cultural division or whatever, 2. they probably wouldn't talk to me in person without an appointment - I'd just be talking to PAs or secretaries, and 3. even if they would talk to me, they wouldn't tell me anything.)

These colleagues just got the idea I had some special connection because before the Lumpini clearance of '10 I happened to be talking with some blabbermouth security guy from the embassy and he told me the days to avoid the area (guess he was just showing off), and it turned out he did specify the correct days.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2014, 12:14:27 PM »

This sounds bad.
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opebo
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2014, 02:15:15 PM »


Or good depending on your point of view I suppose, depending on which side you support.  Though it is possible I could be killed in the crossfire (I suppose that one depends on your point of view as well Wink ).



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Zioneer
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2014, 05:52:04 PM »

So can opebo and from someone who's knowledgeable (and supportive of) about the other side tell me what the Reds and the Yellows respectively support? What's their power bases, and what do they want? As far as I know, one side is the party of a populist billionaire and his family, and is supported by one part of the country, and the other side wants to temporarily dissolve the Parliament or something (correct me if I'm wrong), and have a temporary junta-type government? Why does each side hate each other, and why does one want to dissolve the Parliament?
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opebo
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2014, 05:54:28 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2014, 05:56:48 PM by opebo »

I'm going to try to be fair and give both sides of the story here, though you all know where my sympathies lie.  Interesting moves on the part of the Red side (the PDRC is the yellow):

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/387833/anti-pdrc-activists-pitch-online-battle

Students creating a candlelight vigil peace sign, and making placards.  Interestingly these students do look poor, there are also loads of very active middle class students on the yellow side - and I believe those are the main ones accused of violence on that side (that said, they've mostly just gotten themselves killed, not killed anyone).







Apparently they're engaging in something of an online propaganda war.. They've also been posting encouragement or exhortations to the Bangkok police to act vigorously against the PDRC Shutdown Bangkok on Monday, but though the police are more red than the military, few expect them to stand up to anything (they're rumored to be red-leaning merely because they got more bribes and corruption money under that gov't).
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2014, 06:04:32 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2014, 06:24:29 PM by opebo »

So can opebo and from someone who's knowledgeable (and supportive of) about the other side tell me what the Reds and the Yellows respectively support? What's their power bases, and what do they want? As far as I know, one side is the party of a populist billionaire and his family, and is supported by one part of the country, and the other side wants to temporarily dissolve the Parliament or something (correct me if I'm wrong), and have a temporary junta-type government? Why does each side hate each other, and why does one want to dissolve the Parliament?

Yes, sure.  I've posted extensively on this if you want to search, but basically Thaksin is a very corrupt billionaire who has managed to gain the fervent support of a grass-roots populist or people power movement both by programs for the poor which have made him loved, and outright vote-buying.  This side is supported by the Northeast (Isaan) and the North (around Chiang Mai). they also have the support of the nouveau riche and some say possibly of China (certainly of Cambodia, which is a Chinese client).

The other side is the old ancien régime - 'network monarchy' - its so out of place in the twenty first century I love it to distraction. Basically the royals, the Army, the aristocrats and the old money, and the middle class, and also importantly, the South and much of the Central Thai heartland (including the Eastern Seaboard).  So its a regional as well as a class conflict. I'll go find my map..



My map's a little bit generous to team monarchy as I think since they do have the army, they're kind of ahead in the game...

And here's a generic map of the regions to give you some idea:



Bangkok, the South and the Eastern seaboard are all amazingly developed, Isaan and  the North much less so.

Somehow I missed this:

Why does each side hate each other, and why does one want to dissolve the Parliament?

They want to dissolve government because they say it is corrupt, invalid, and controlled by proxy by the Prime Minister's exiled brother. This was all triggered off by her (very feeble) attempt to pass an amnesty bill to allow him to come back.  The yellow side hates him, as he took away their power, and to be fair really ran roughshod over the country, so they'll do anything to keep him out.  They won't accept the elections called by Yingluck (Taksin's sister the PM) because they say they'll be corrupt and they don't believe in democracy anyway, they believe in a 'Thai way' which is non-Western.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2014, 07:02:33 PM »

Thanks, opebo. I'm still waiting on a response by someone who is favorable towards Thaksin, but good info nonetheless.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2014, 08:28:56 PM »

And would Reds have military assets to keep waging a Civil War against an Army controlled by yellows? Thaksin was a policeman and must have a support between low-ranked people in Army. Thailand's border countries are Myanmar, Cambodja, Laos and Thailand? How would them act in Civil War? Crown Prince is known for Thaksin's links and he's very controversial. King Rama could be fearing to take a position as Royal Family can end being deposed in a Nepal way.
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Knives
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2014, 08:51:15 PM »

Thanks, opebo. I'm still waiting on a response by someone who is favorable towards Thaksin, but good info nonetheless.

Thaskin is corrupt but the and Yingluck was stupid for thinking she'd be able to pass an amnesty bill. But, the Yellows have been looking for a chance to disrupt the very stable government for a long time and this was their chance. The yellows are rich opportunists who couldn't give two sh**ts about the will of the Thai people.

I'm off to Thailand in 3 days should be fun to see how Bangkok is while I'm there. Hopefully no sh**t goes down at the airport.

Also if Yellows do come to power, the Reds will just do what they did in 2010 again.
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opebo
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2014, 03:56:13 AM »
« Edited: January 10, 2014, 05:44:23 AM by opebo »

And would Reds have military assets to keep waging a Civil War against an Army controlled by yellows? Thaksin was a policeman and must have a support between low-ranked people in Army. Thailand's border countries are Myanmar, Cambodja, Laos and Thailand? How would them act in Civil War? Crown Prince is known for Thaksin's links and he's very controversial. King Rama could be fearing to take a position as Royal Family can end being deposed in a Nepal way.

The Reds at this moment do not appear to have the type of backing or wherewithall to engage in a 'real' civil war, but these things take time to develop.  The only country which would back them would be Cambodia, which of course would be either a small factor or a major factor depending on China (would China wish to use its Cambodia proxy-power, or just leave the situation alone).

The Prince is a total wild card (literally a bit mad, they say), but the Network supposedly wants to replace him with the daughter, who is well liked.  The real question as you point out is what do police and red-sympathizing low ranking enlisted men in the army do - I predict not much.  The police are famously corrupt here, and they generally do nothing - no work, and certainly no acts which risk their hides.  As for the 'watermelons' (green on the outside, red on the inside) in the army, I'm very sure they've been isolated in unit away from anything important (for example they say when an Isaan boy goes to the army he is sent to Pattani to get blown up by the Muslims, when a Nakhon Sri Thammarat boy joins the army, he's given special training and sent to Bangkok to be ready for the next coup d'etat).

The Man himself will always remain publicly neutral but don't kid yourself, this IS him and every (successful) coup is him.

I'm off to Thailand in 3 days should be fun to see how Bangkok is while I'm there. Hopefully no sh**t goes down at the airport.

Also if Yellows do come to power, the Reds will just do what they did in 2010 again.

You're exactly right that this is a cycle - a sort of theater that has been going on for decades really.  Btw, have fun in Thailand Wink

Some addenda before I head to the bus:

First one claim:
http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/388915/pm-asked-to-issue-royal-decree-postponing-feb-2-election
Then the opposite immediately follows:
http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/388934/ec-denies-seeking-postponement-of-election
However on the bright side no panic from Bangkokians:
http://bangkokpost.com/news/politics/388829/consumers-stay-calm
Only from certain foreigners:
http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/388908/kuwaitis-urged-to-leave-thailand-before-bangkok-shutdown


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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2014, 01:04:28 AM »

RIP opebo and his valuable contributions (like this one) to the forum. Sad
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Beet
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« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2014, 01:38:33 AM »

Here is a good article about the likelihood of a coup:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/11/us-thailand-armychief-idUSBREA0A04020140111

In reality, the military doesn't want a coup but also doesn't want Thaksin back.
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