Sabato: GOP Could Win it All

[Frodo]

Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year:
A definitive guide to the 2014 elections from our new columnist.

By LARRY J. SABATO
January 06, 2014

Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we’ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments—the “game changers” and the “tipping points.” But we all know there aren’t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I’d argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms.

Why?

[smoltchanov]

President is a lame-duck, who irritates a lot of people, economy only begins to show signs of revival after crisis, Congress sucks (including Democratic Senate) - loud, noisy, brutal, without any compromises, where sound voices drowns in a sea of polarized partisanship, and "i am a boss - you are a fool, you are a boss - i am a fool" mentality permiates everything, House redistricting greatly favors Republicans (not only because vile Redistricting itself, but because of excessive concentration of Democratic vote in relatively few districts, especially majority-minority), 6th year syndrome and general dropoff in Democratic vote in midterms.

These are some factors coming to MY mind - may be some of them come to Sabato's too...

[publicunofficial]

Could

[ElectionsGuy]

Could

Exactly, that's the key word. The next coming months for the GOP will make the difference between Clinton's 6th year midterm and Bush's 6th year midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems have 3 chances to keep senate. 2 run offs in Ga and La and Pressler running as an independent candidate in SD. I like our chances better than the GOP as of now.

[smoltchanov]

The Dems have 3 chances to keep senate. 2 run offs in Ga and La and Pressler running as an independent candidate in SD. I like our chances better than the GOP as of now.

For me it's 50-50 now. Republicans obviously getting WV, MT and SD, so they need 3 more: They are on attack in AK, AR, LA and NC. 3 out of 4 is posiible with good candidates. At the same time i don't see ANY really vulnerable Republican Senate seats now. There are some small chances in GA and KY, and tht's - all..

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I doubt it, that 2-seat gain Dems unexpectedly got in 2012 is really what'll save them. Republicans basically have to run the table on vulnerable Dem seats (WV, SD, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC) and they might even lose a couple of their own seats (GA, KY, ME if Collins pulls a Snowe). And if Dems do hold the Senate (which I think is likely), they are basically guaranteed control through 2018, looking at how favorable the 2016 map appears.

[sg0508]

This is the modern-day GOP we're talking about.  They will find SOME way to blow it and start running some ridiculous candidates who put their feet in their mouths, or primary out winners and in place, run some lunatics. 

They will gain a few seats (WV, SD, etc), but they will "spin" similar to 2010 saying they had a big night when they watch 3-4 seats slip away they had no business losing.

[Sol]

I bet that the GOP will make gains in both houses, but lose the senate nontheless.

[Vosem]

I bet that the GOP will make gains in both houses, but lose the senate nontheless.

How can they lose something they don't have?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Something tells me that no matter how favorable the map is for them, Republicans will pull a 2012 and throw this one to the Democrats, then write it off as their candidates "weren't conservative enough".


The TEAbags will never learn. -_-

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something tells me that no matter how favorable the map is for them, Republicans will pull a 2012 and throw this one to the Democrats, then write it off as their candidates "weren't conservative enough".


The TEAbags will never learn. -_-

CO,ME,SD are wildcards

[windjammer]

Of course they could!

[sg0508]

Maine certainly seems to the "ripe" seat where the GOP could try to tea-party Collins and then lose badly in the general (i.e. DE in 2010).  DE with Mike Castle was a certain win.

Exit polls showed the GOP lost 25 points on Election Day from the choice of O'Donnell in the primary.

[7,052,770]

I imagine the Tea Party will cause Democrats to win at least 1 out of Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.

[free my dawg]

Maine certainly seems to the "ripe" seat where the GOP could try to tea-party Collins and then lose badly in the general.

Not really - the current challenger's wearing his domestic violence conviction on his sleeve and claims his wife's lying about it. Collins is safe.

[SamInTheSouth]

The Dems have 3 chances to keep senate. 2 run offs in Ga and La and Pressler running as an independent candidate in SD. I like our chances better than the GOP as of now.

The Democrats will not win the Georgia seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I should of said the GOP may find it difficult to defeat more than 3 Dem incumbents to win the Senate chamber. Just like in 2016 we only have shots against Kirk, Johnson and Toomey. Laundrieu is pretty much staying put against Cassidy.

[smoltchanov]

3 incumbents + 3 open (SD, WV, MT) = 6 = Republican majority))))

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When and if Walsh is confirmed senator, he technically will be an incumbant plus Wildcard in SD, etc.