Which state is more likely to vote GOP in a presidential election?

[TDAS04]

These "upper corner" states have voted Democratic by very similar margins in the last four presidential elections.  Which state is more likely to flip in the near future?

EDIT:  By winning Maine I mean winning the two at-large, statewide electoral votes, as the other two or allocated by CD.

[Franzl]

Washington seems to be less....swingy.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Maine is more likely to at least give one electoral vote, considering how its votes can be split based on the way the congressional districts vote.

[TDAS04]

Maine is more likely to at least give one electoral vote, considering how its votes can be split based on the way the congressional districts vote.

Yes, I should have clarified.  By winning Maine, I meant at least winning the two at-large electoral votes, which in effect would guarantee that the winner obtains at least three.

[Skill and Chance]

I lean Washington, but it really comes down to:

1. Did Romney get a New England boost in 2012?  If so, the fact that ME/VT/MA/RI still trended D means a lot more for the future.  You could argue that Romney was the best GOP candidate to court Maine and look how that turned out.  How would a conservative populist like Huckabee/Perry/Walker do there?

2.  Do Republicans target the West?  The kind of campaign that would work in CO/NV/NM would also impress large portions of CA/OR/WA.  But is it worth the Republican's time and effort?  Obviously CA is too far gone statewide, but there are a bunch of D+low House seats there to target.  Also, an OR/WA strategy could reap a lot more EV's than an NH/ME/CT strategy (with CT being really, really tough).

So I am going with Washington and the premise would be a "Colorado strategy" for the GOP in a year that turns into reverse 2008. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Maine. It is more elastic and winnable in a landslide with the right people, Washington is not.

[JRP1994]

VERY close.

• Both states are trending away from the GOP.
• Washington has a PVI of D+5, while Maine has a PVI of D+6.
• Washington has consistently been about 1 point closer, relative to the national average, than Maine.
• According to the FiveThirtyEight elasticity scale, Maine (1.27) is considerably more elastic than Washington (1.13)

Let's say (assuming 1% goes to minor-party candidates) that the generic Democrat margin would be 55-44 (11%) in WA, and 56-43 (13%) in ME.

11 ÷ 1.13 = 9.73
13 ÷ 1.27 = 10.27

Ceteris paribus, the answer would probably be Washington, but only narrowly.

[⛄]

Maine is more likely to at least give one electoral vote, considering how its votes can be split based on the way the congressional districts vote.

Yes, I should have clarified.  By winning Maine, I meant at least winning the two at-large electoral votes, which in effect would guarantee that the winner obtains at least three.

Nope. The popular vote winner is only guaranteed two delegates. Think about it...

[MATTROSE94]

Maine. I don't see Washington going Republican unless the Democratic vote gets split by a left-wing third-party candidate. I am definately surprised that Obama did not hit 60% of the vote in Washington though.

[TDAS04]

Maine is more likely to at least give one electoral vote, considering how its votes can be split based on the way the congressional districts vote.

Yes, I should have clarified.  By winning Maine, I meant at least winning the two at-large electoral votes, which in effect would guarantee that the winner obtains at least three.

Nope. The popular vote winner is only guaranteed two delegates. Think about it...

Uh, I did think about it.  If a candidate wins statewide and gets the two, that can't happen unless that candidate wins at least one congressional district.

I suppose unless there are more than two candidates...

[H. Ross Peron]

Maine obviously considering its far more white, libertarian-ish, and rural than Washington.

[IceSpear]

Maine obviously considering its far more white, libertarian-ish, and rural than Washington.

They're also quite willing to elect moderate Republicans (Collins in a landslide in 2008, Snowe would've won in a landslide in 2012), I'm not sure if I can say the same for Washington (McKenna ended up losing even after having a huge lead early on).

[Franzl]

Maine is more likely to at least give one electoral vote, considering how its votes can be split based on the way the congressional districts vote.

Yes, I should have clarified.  By winning Maine, I meant at least winning the two at-large electoral votes, which in effect would guarantee that the winner obtains at least three.

Nope. The popular vote winner is only guaranteed two delegates. Think about it...

True, although for practical purposes, in the absence of a very strong third party showing, the state winner will win 3 or more.

[New_Conservative]

No doubt in my mind Maine.