Pennsylvania

[12th Doctor]

All the counties that Kerry failed to retain this year were very close last time and were very close this time, so the shift was not that big.

I'm not sure what you mean by "not really a swing state".

A 1% swing towards Bush would have won him the state.

[12th Doctor]

Any candidate even slightly more liberal than Bush and backed by Rove could carry the state.  Or, of course, a native son.

[12th Doctor]

Keep in mind Bush went there the most of any state and still lost it. It's not like he didn't commit enough resources.

Keep in mind that Kerry was also here just about every other day.

[12th Doctor]

So what is a swing state to you.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were the only ones closer this year (IIRC).

Ohio was also closer.

No it wasn't.  PA was closer by about .1%

[12th Doctor]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

[12th Doctor]

Westmoreland and Greene have changed a lot in just the past 10 years, as has all of western, PA.  I know I have said this a million times, but the "New Deal Die-off" is causing the west to shift dramatically towards the GOP.  I predict that, all things being equal, in 2008, all western, PA counties will go Republican, except Erie and Alleghany.

Fayette.

True.  Fayette will likely remain in the Dem column, but definatly not after 2012.  Kerry only got 53% there.

Alleghany will also likely become more Republican freindly, though I would not be so foolish as to predict it going Republican any time in the next 30 years, unless there is some large shift in the American political climate.

Erie is acctually trending Dermocrat, and has been for sometime, though that trend is small.  The terrible economic climate up hear and the droves of minorities moving here from places like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo are making it hard to elect Republicans on a local level, let alone nationally.

[12th Doctor]

Ah. You're all playing with trends. Not a good idea, but you'll learn.

While trends are not always accurate, they do tell you something about the current political climate and thus, they tell you what you can do to change it to your advantage.

Though trends don't reflect sure things, they tell you what will happen if you do not alter the status quo.