South Africa 2014

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Hashemite, do you know where it's possible to follow the results as they come in?

[ag]

Results should, eventually, appear, for instance, here

http://www.news24.com/elections/news

But, so far, there seem to be none. They expect complete results over 2 days.

[njwes]

Hashemite, do you know where it's possible to follow the results as they come in?

Here's the SA Electoral Commission's website:

http://www.elections.org.za/resultsNPE2014/


No results yet though

[Hash]

Hashemite, do you know where it's possible to follow the results as they come in?

The IEC and SABC (http://elections.sabc.co.za/Elections2014/ElectionHome.aspx) seem to have the best setup ready, so I'll rely on them. News24 has some really awesome maps allowing you to see precinct results from the 2004 and 2009 elections, and some party strength maps as well. Fairly surprising coming from them.

[Hash]

Turns out the IEC sucks balls and the SABC likewise (I knew it was too good to be true); but News24 is the best with some super-cool maps down to ward level (results are reported by voting district, so just because a ward is coloured doesn't mean it's all reported): http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results?mobile=false#map=live&election=national&provid=WC&level=mun

(edit: apparently you can zoom to precinct level if you click on the wards! RSA best country)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So are white/coloured areas in general counted faster, or is NA preforming as well as it appears at the moment? (I imagine it's the former)

[ag]

So are white/coloured areas in general counted faster, or is NA preforming as well as it appears at the moment? (I imagine it's the former)

DA - not NA.

The fastest counting province is Western Cape, and DA rules there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anywhere we can watch it online? Can't seem to find anything on the SABC site.

[Hash]

17.3% reporting:

ANC 55.46
DA 31.66
EFF 3.66
IFP 1.89
VF+ 1.34
NFP 1.28
UDM 1.00
COPE 0.72
(Agang way down at 0.23)

From the precinct results I've looked at and compared to 2009 in Cape Town and other towns in WC, the results are looking very close to 2009: DA consolidation of white and Coloured vote (a lot from just eating up the remnants of the ID vote from 2009), while the ANC is stable (and actually up in some of COPE's strongest precincts from 2009). The EFF is generally placing a very distant second to the ANC with 0-10% in the homogeneously black townships, the DA is very weak albeit up from quasi-nil results in 2009 (below 1% in a lot of precincts). Agang is performing terribly; ironically, it appears, from Cape Town, that its 'best' results (= above 1%) come from white suburbs...

[ag]

29.82% reporting

ANC 58.46%
DA 27.95%
EFF 4.18%
IFP 2.05%
NFP 1.47%
VF+ 1.18%
UDM 0.99%
COPE 0.84%
ACDP 0.64%
AIC 0.56%
AGANG 0.21%
AL J 0.20%

Current forecast is that ANC lands around 63% and DA around 22%. Might not sound impressive, but could wind up being the worst performance by ANC and the best by an opposition party since the start of democracy.

[Јas]

59.95% Voting Districts Reporting

63.2% ANC
22.3% DA
  4.9% EFF
  2.4% IFP
  1.6% NFP
  1.1% UDM
  0.97% VF Plus
  0.77% COPE
  0.57% AIC
  0.55% ACDP

[Hash]

63.1% of VDs:
ANC 63.61
DA 21.73
EFF 4.93
IFP 2.45
NFP 1.66
UDM 1.13
VF+ 0.93
COPE 0.76

[ag]

73.59% reporting

ANC 62.52%
DA 22.46%
EFF 5.30%
IFP 2.50%
NFP 1.68%
UDM 1.12%
VF+ 0.92%
COPE 0.73%
AIC 0.56%
ACDP 0.55%
AGANG 0.24%
PAC 0.20%

[Hash]

Joburg has begun trickling in, and initial precinct results look good for the DA/EFF and mediocre for ANC. For example, the ANC's numbers in most Soweto VDs which have reported so far are down significantly on 2009 results, at the expense of EFF and the DA (with EFF placing second in most places), same thing in the township of Alexandria, where EFF is doing extremely well (over 20% in some VDs).

[Hash]

Also, if anybody cares, you should really check out some of the results in Marikana and Rusteburg...

[Hash]

Provincial results:

It seems as if the EFF will certainly form the opposition in LP (no surprise). There is a close race for second between DA and EFF in NW, and a particularly interesting one between the DA and IFP in KZN (the IFP is currently leading, but a number of white precincts still out in Durban, so I'm not sure if it might be enough for the DA to place second).

(I hope people care about this and that I'm not talking to myself)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have an audience!

btw: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/election-dilemmas-liberation-gap-editorial

lololololol

[Hash]

Next media moron to write/say 'born free' needs to be gassed or publicly beheaded. It's beyond unbearable at this point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did you see the bit about 'real politics'? Jesus...

[EPG]

What is the alternative to liberation?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Looking at the IEC vote totals, I can see that almost 50% of the vote is still out in Gauteng. Is there a chance the DA could pull ahead in the province?

[Hash]

Looking at the IEC vote totals, I can see that almost 50% of the vote is still out in Gauteng. Is there a chance the DA could pull ahead in the province?

News24 has slightly different results (somehow seems to have more complete results in GP), but from their map, what is left to come in from Joburg is most of Soweto, Diepsloot and Ivory Park (all 99% black townships/regions) so that should easily put the ANC over the 50% line (but judging from the results I noted in Joburg, the ANC will likely suffer substantial loses in the province with very good results for the DA and EFF).

[Cassius]

Lol at COPE's and Agang's results (didn't the latter get quite a lot of hype before essentially proving to be a dud?). Where to next for the IFP though? Will it fall apart completely once Buthelezi (if you'll pardon the crudity of my expression) shuttles off this mortal coil?

[njwes]

Aren't these results sort of disappointing for both the DA and EFF though? I mean, the ANC will end up down, but not appreciably. The DA doesn't seem to have made substantial inroads among black voters. The 6% that EFF looks like it's going to end up with is less even than COPE got in the last election. I'd imagine that the ANC benefited from the collapse of COPE and the awfulness of IFP, but still, another 60+% victory after 20 years in power is nothing to get upset about.

Incidentally, I wonder if at this point the ANC would actually hand over the reigns of government in the event that a coalition was able to (or looked like it would be able to) force them out of power. I somewhat doubt it.

[ag]

Aren't these results sort of disappointing for both the DA and EFF though? I mean, the ANC will end up down, but not appreciably. The DA doesn't seem to have made substantial inroads among black voters. The 6% that EFF looks like it's going to end up with is less even than COPE got in the last election. I'd imagine that the ANC benefited from the collapse of COPE and the awfulness of IFP, but still, another 60+% victory after 20 years in power is nothing to get upset about.

Incidentally, I wonder if at this point the ANC would actually hand over the reigns of government in the event that a coalition was able to (or looked like it would be able to) force them out of power. I somewhat doubt it.

South Africa is following the Indian pattern pretty well.  Back in 1967 INC was still pretty unbeatable. Eventually, it will sufficiently splinter to make the politics more lively. Whether they agree to go at that point is an interesting question - we will have to wait and see.