South Africa 2014

[ag]

91.84% reporting

ANC 62.72%
DA 21.93%
EFF 5.73%
IFP 2.55%
NFP 1.69%
UDM 1.07%
VF+ 0.89%
COPE 0.69%
ACDP 0.55%
AIC 0.55%
AGANG 0.25%
PAC 0.20%

[njwes]

Any idea when international votes get counted?

The provincial results are less exciting than I'd hoped; not much vote-splitting in South Africa apparently

[ag]

I tried to make the seat calculation - from the data a few minutes back, so it might be a tad old. It seems, we are getting (in brackets, change from 2009)

ANC 250 (-14)
DA 88 (+17 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 24 (+24)
IFP 10 (-8)
NFP  7 (+7)
UDM 4 (nil)
VF+ 4 (nil)
COPE 3 (-27)
ACDP 3 (nil)
AIC 3 (+3)
AGANG 2 (+2)
PAC 1 (nil)
APC 1  (nil)
MF 0 (-1)
UCDP 0 (-2)
AZAPO 0 (-1)

[ag]

Western Cape Legislature seems to be

DA 26 (+2, as compared to DA+ID)
ANC 14 (nil)
EFF 1 (+1)
ACDP 1 (nil)

COPE looses its three seats.

[ag]

So, there seems to be a slight peculiarity in the allocation method. They use the largest remainder, but only for the first 5 remainders. After that, they switch to the largest average per seat. IFP just dropped to below 10 quotas - did not change their seat allocation (they, obviously, have by far the largest remainder), but it did have the effect of bumping APC out (they were the fifth remainder, and are now the sixth) - in favor of the extra seat for UDM (the fifth largest average). And then when DA got the 88th quota UMP lost its extra seat back to APC. Etc. Funny.

[ag]

Update with 99.07% of precincts reporting.

ANC 62.21% votes 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.16% votes 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.29% votes 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.42% votes 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.58% votes 7 seats (+7)
UDM 1.01% votes 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.91% votes 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.58% votes 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes 0 seats (-1)
AL J 0.14% votes, 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes 0 seats (-1)

[Hash]

SABC and News24 report the following results for the international votes (not sure if they're all in)

DA 84.44
ANC 8.32
AGANG 1.81
EFF 1.41
VF+ 1.09
ACDP 1.01
UDM 0.71
COPE 0.29
PAC 0.25
etc...

[ag]

With what but what seems to be a couple of dozen precincts reporting, we seem to have

ANC 62.23% votes 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.16% votes 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.34% votes 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.41% votes 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.57% votes 6 seats (+6)
UDM 1.00% votes 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.90% votes 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.56% votes 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes 1 seat (nil)
AL J 0.14% votes, 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes 0 seats (-1)

DA has set a SA record for the vote for a single opposition party, both counted as the total number of votes (over 4 mln.) a vote share (over 22%), and the number of seats (89). ANC gets its worst vote share and the number of seats (just a tad under its 1994 result). Nothing pathbreaking - but a good position to be building from by DA.

[ag]

SA currently has 8, so called, metropolitan municipalities. Their current names notwithstanding, they are better known as (in order of decreasing population) Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, East Rand (East of Johannesburg), Pretoria, Port Elizabeth, East London and Bloemfontein (in every case with suburbs). Two of these (East London and Bloemfontein) are relatively smallish (under 1 mln. residents) and have only existed in their current boundaries since 2011, so the proper comparison would require time. In addition, just eye-balling, very little happened there between 2009 and 2014 - same ANC dominance and splintered opposition. It is more interesting in the other (bigger) six, so I decided to take a look.

Here is what happened in the 6 biggest South African metros - national vote - this time (for comparison, change from 2009, with DA/ID vote for that year taken together).

Johannesburg, Gauteng
ANC 53.58% (-9.57%)
DA 29.92% (+8.15%)
EFF 10.00% (+10.00%)
IFP 1.33% (-1.00%)
UDM 0.64% (+0.21%)
ACDP 0.62% (-0.23%)
AGANG 0.61% (+0.61%)
NFP 0.61% (+0.61%)
COPE 0.55% (-8.94%)
VF+ 0.45% (-0.02%)
AIC 0.42% (+0.42%)

Tshwane/Pretoria (Gauteng)
ANC 51.09% (-10.02%)
DA 31.19% (+5.93%)
EFF 11.44% (+11.44%)
VF+ 2.51% (-0.39%)
ACDP 0.83%  (-0.28%)
AGANG 0.59% (+0.59%)
COPE 0.44% (-7.31%)
AIC 0.42% (+0.42%)
UDM 0.38% (+0.18%)

Ekurhuleni/East Rand (Gauteng)
ANC 56.41% (-11.11%)
DA 26.88% (+6.07%)
EFF 10.65% (+10.65%)
VF+ 1.02% (+0.03%)
IFP 0.99% (-0.87%)
NFP 0.83% (+0.83%)
ACDP 0.67% (-0.21%)
UDM 0.49% (nil)
COPE 0.44%(-5.78%)
AIC 0.41% (+0.41%)
AGANG 0.30% (+0.30%)

At least in urban Gauteng it does seem like COPE vote has shifted to DA (though, of course, one would have to check precinct by precinct to make sure). Also, the urban numbers start looking competitive. Hey, GOP could only dream of these in NYC and DC 

[ottermax]

It looks like the DA gained Black votes, which is key to their growth as a party. It may not seem like much to go from 16% to 22%, but it shows that they have broken into the impenetrable demographic divide even if barely.

I'm fairly impressed with the lack of 99% voting districts I'm seeing. Municipal elections in 2016 will be very interesting.

[ag]

Cape Town, Western Cape
DA 59.31% (+5.63%)
ANC 32.41% (-0.25%)
EFF 2.72% (+2.72%)
ACDP 1.26% (-0.48%)
AL J 0.76% (+0.07%)
UDM 0.71% (-0.13%)
VF+ 0.65% (+0.1%)
AGANG 0.56% (+0.56%)
COPE 0.46% (-8.23%)

Of course, Western Cape is the opposite of the rest of the country. In addition, EFF did not take off here - and so ANC vote was stable (but it is already low). The bulk of the COPE vote went DA here as well. Again, that gain of 5.6% is in addition to the incorporation of the 2.8% ID had in Cape Town back in 2009. Last time DA alone barely got 50% - now it is almost at 60%.

[ag]

eThekwini/Durban, KwaZulu/Natal

ANC 65.39% (-2.13%)
DA 22.95% (+4.58%)
IFP 3.17% (-3.64%)
EFF 2.60% (+2.60%)
NFP 2.32% (+2.32%)
MF 1.11% (-1.39%)
ACDP 0.58% (-0.24%)
AIC 0.49% (+0.49%)
UDM 0.23% (-0.02%)
COPE 0.20% (-2.37%)

Even accounting for the split between IFP and NFP, there is a definite Zulu party erosion in Durban - but, in any case, these are not very urban. ANC still dominant (EFF has not done well)  - but opposition is clearly consolidating, with, as elsewhere, the (smallish) COPE vote going to DA (note also the collapse of the Minority Front, of which DA is the likely beneficiary).

[ag]

Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth (Eastern Cape)
ANC 49.17% (-0.97%)
DA 40.16% (+10.56%)
EFF 4.30% (+4.30%)
COPE 1.79% (-15.23%)
UDM 1.30% (+0.66%)
VF+ 0.73% (+0.26%)
ACDP 0.57% (-0.11%)
AIC 0.55% (+0.55%)

Port Elizabeth has been and remains a weak link for ANC. The consolidation of opposition vote with DA is the bad news for them here - yes, the next municipals will, once again, be interesting.

[ag]

Provincial vote (top 5 parties in 2014, DA/ID together for 2009)

Limpopo
ANC 78.60% (-6.28%)
EFF 10.74% (+10.74%)
DA 6.48%  (+2.91%)
COPE 0.86% (-6.67%)
VF+ 0.69% (+0.08%)

Mpumalanga
ANC 78.22% (-7.33%)
DA 10.40% (+2.79%)
EFF 6.25% (+6.25%)
BRA 1.15% (+1.15%)
VF+ 0.82% (-0.07%)

Northwest
ANC 67.39% (-5.50%)
EFF 13.20% (+13.20%)
DA 12.59% (+3.88%)
VF+ 1.72% (-0.09%)
UCDP 1.18% (-4.09%)

Whatever you say, but DA has made inroads where it was almost absent before - and these have to be the blacks (note, VF+ is very stable). Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

[ag]

Gauteng
ANC 53.64% (-10.40%)
DA 30.74% (+8.27%)
EFF 10.30% (+10.30%)
VF+ 1.19% (-0.44%)
IFP 0.78% (-0.71%)

This is getting to be interesting. It is no longer inconceivable that Gauteng will be competitive in the future. And, of course, the DA pick-up of the COPE vote is remarkable.

KwaZulu/Natal
ANC 64.52% (+1.57%)
DA 12.76% (+3.41%)
IFP 10.86% (-11.54%)
NFP 7.31% (+7.31%)
EFF 1.85% (+1.85%)

There is more to DA becoming the official opposition here than merely IFP split. ANC, actually gains - well, Zuma is, at least, quite popular at home. EFF barely makes it ahead the (sharply reduced) Minority Front.

[ag]

Free State
ANC 69.85% (-1.25%)
DA 16.23% (+4.48%)
EFF 8.15% (EFF +8.15%)
VF+ 2.10% (+0.09%)
COPE 1.63% (-9.98%)

Eastern Cape
ANC 70.09% (+1.27%)
DA 16.20% (+4.75%)
UDM 6.16% (+2.03%)
EFF 3.48% (+3.48%)
COPE 1.20% (-12.47%)

Other than COPE collapse, little of interest, it seems, happening here. Still, DA emergence as the undisputed opposition and UDM rebound in its backyard are both notable.

[njwes]

Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

Well, for comparison, Bush got ~15% of the black vote in 2004, which was the best in decades.

[ag]

Northern Cape
ANC 64.40% (+3.65%)
DA 23.89% (+2.27%)
EFF 4.96% (+4.96%)
COPE 3.60% (-13.07%)
VF+ 1.09% (-0.13%)

Hm. The one place where DA gained less than ANC! Seems like the local COPE folk mostly went back to ANC (and quite a few, actually stayed with COPE), rather than to DA. Wonder why.

Western Cape
DA 59.38% (+3.24%)
ANC 32.89% (+1.44%)
EFF 2.11% (+2.11%)
ACDP 1.02% (-0.45%)
AL J 0.62% (+0.16%)

DA solidifies. Merger with ID is well-digested by now and additional electorate (a bit less than half the COPE vote) is attracted. At this point, DA is the natural party of government here, no question of that. ANC is not doing too badly, even slightly improving, but still it is the opposition, and, likely, for a long time. Everybody else is all but negligible.

[ag]

Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

Well, for comparison, Bush got ~15% of the black vote in 2004, which was the best in decades.

Well, DA is, still, probably, not at 15% of the black vote - definitely not in Limpopo. But it has improved.

More importantly, at this point the proportion of its electorate that is black is no longer very small. We will start seeing more and more black DA politicians and voters - simply because there ARE many more now.

[ag]

Seems like this is the final (though still provisional) result

ANC 62.15% votes (-3.75%) 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.23% votes (+4.65% as compared to DA+ID) 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.35% votes (+6.35%) 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.40% votes (-2.15%) 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.57% votes (+1.57%) 6 seats (+6)
UDM 1.00% votes (+0.15%) 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.90% votes (+0.07%) 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes (-6.75%) 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.57% votes (-0.24%) 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes (+0.53%) 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes (+0.28%) 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes (-0.06%) 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes (-0.03%) 1 seat (nil)
AL J 0.14% votes (-0.01%) 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes (-0.13%) 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes (-0.25%) 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes (-0.11%) 0 seats (-1)

Everybody else is less than 0.1% each.

[ag]

SABC and News24 report the following results for the international votes (not sure if they're all in)

DA 84.44
ANC 8.32
AGANG 1.81
EFF 1.41
VF+ 1.09
ACDP 1.01
UDM 0.71
COPE 0.29
PAC 0.25
etc...

Seems like it was final, but, at that point, not, yet, added to election totals. It is now. Improved a bit DA percentages, without changing seat allocation - though, at least, DA got its 89th quota full.

[Famous Mortimer]

Here's a news article about the AIC, which is African Independent Congress, if you didn't know (you probably didn't):

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-09-novice-party-wins-parliament-seats-beating-agang-sa

[Famous Mortimer]

You have an audience!

btw: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/election-dilemmas-liberation-gap-editorial

lololololol

Wondering why you didn't like this article. Seemed perfectly reasonable to me. Maybe a little obvious but then again obvious to Atlas members isn't obvious to the general public.

[Hash]

If you have a month to waste or you particularly enjoy my verbal diarrhea, I invite you to read my super-duper long post on this:

http://welections.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/south-africa-2014/

It includes a detailed overview of what's happened since 1994 and 2009, the ANC's internal politics, details on every party and their platforms, the results, the voting patterns and random disjointed conclusions. I like to think it's neutral in that I hate equally on the ANC and the DA, and I like to think it's miles ahead of the Western media's craptastic 'analysis' of the RSA election (why can't black people just vote DA??!!!1). If you want something which comforts the 'SOUTH AFRICA FAILED STATE' meme, don't bother reading.

If I ever get free time this summer (unlikely), I'd like to do some maps of party strength by ward or precinct.

[Velasco]

I was waiting for that verbal diarrhea on SA elections the last couple of weeks. If I find time to spare, I'll read it until the very end.