South Africa 2014

[politicus]

the breakdown of law and order

This is demonstrably false and you lose all credibility when you say stuff like this. Please check the facts before recycling myths.


(full disclosure: the ratio increased to 31.1 in 2012/2013)

This isn't to deny that SA has no crime issue (obviously) but rather to temper some of the lies and myths being spread out there, which has no basis in actual statistics. There's little doubt that the SAPS figures are not entirely accurate, but obviously claiming that their figures are fabricated is silly conspiracy theory stuff with no grounding in reality.

Whether or not voters feel there is a breakdown in law and order is not something you can debate based on crime statistics.

SA is a country with an extreme crime problem, whether homicide rates have gone up or down is neither here nor there in this context.

We are talking about a country where one in four women and teenage girls have been raped and where the wast majority of those crimes go unreported = not a safe country or a place where the rule of law prevails.

Regarding facts. According to AfricaCheck:

The facts about the increases in interpersonal violence are as follows:
 •Incidents of murder increased from 15 609 murders in 2011/12 to 16 259 murders in 2012/13.
 This means that there was an increase of 650 murder cases or a 4,2% increase when comparing the total numbers of murders withthe previous year.
 •This works out to almost two additional murders per day on average during the 2012/13 financial year.
 •Consequently, our murder rate increased from a total average of 43 murders per day to 45 murders per day.
 •Using the correct census data for 2011, the murder rate in 2011/12 was 30.3 per 100,000 population and not 30,9 as reported by SAPS in the last reporting period.
 •The murder rate for 2012/13 stood at 31.3 per 100,000 population which reflects an increase of 2.8% in the rate of murders (not 0.6% as presented officially).
 •South Africa’s murder rate is therefore about four and a half times higher than the global average of 6.9 murders per 100 000.
 •Attempted murder cases increased from 14 859 to 16 363, an increase of 10.1%
 •Attempted murder rates increased by 8,7% in the past year.
 •Sexual offence cases increased from 64 514 to 66 387, an increase of 2.9%.
 •Sexual offence rates increased from 125,1 per 100000 to 127,0 per 100000 population an increase of 1.5%.

Of course its subjective whether this constitutes a breakdown in law and order, but its high enough for a large number of voters to feel they are not safe and that "the police is doing nothing" which is a factor in the distrust and unpopularity of the governing party.

Also Hash; stuff like "you lose all credibility" is why I didn't like the idea of you as a mod. Now that they made you one: Tone it down a notch and be less aggressive.

[Hash]

Where did I say that SA doesn't have a crime problem? Nowhere. It obviously has very high crimes rates, probably the highest in the world, it's absolutely horrendous, oftentimes disgusting, there is an undeniable issue with the police, the enforcement of the law and so forth. I did not contest that reality anywhere. I also did not contest the notion that crime is a major factor in why people dislike the ANC, although polls do show that those who cite crime as their main issues tend to be non-blacks. Likewise, it's obvious that the police is pretty bad (as I pointed out in my post, again).

What am I contesting is the use of the word 'breakdown', because, it might just be me, the word 'breakdown' indicates something which worsened dramatically, turned to sh**t overnight or literally broke down. Crime increasing on the previous year does not constitute a breakdown. Would there be a 'breakdown of law and order' if, say, attempted murders in Ottawa increased 10% from 2012? Obviously not. Would there be a 'breakdown of law and order' if they increased 10% from 2003? Probably. The use of the phrase 'breakdown of law and order' is extremely, overly strong and very misleading since it is not backed up by facts. It ruins an otherwise an otherwise objective post by adding some subjective inflammatory appreciation.

That is my issue with your post. Please re-read my post if you wish, because I'm afraid you badly misinterpreted by post, twisted my words out of context to fit a narrative or misread my post completely. Grazie.

[politicus]

Interesting chart, PASOK. It seems as if the crime rate peaked in the 1990s and that it was that period that gave SA a bad name crime wise, a reputation that still sticks. Though of course the murder rate is still high today, but the reduction is noteworthy.

Homicide is the most reliable type of crime to compare between countries, because it is almost always reported. But a lower homicide rate is not in itself evidence of a lower crime rate. Not all types of crime follow homicide.


SA ranked 2nd behind Venezuela when it comes to fear of "walking alone at night" in an international Gallup poll. So it is a major concern to people.

http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/south-africans-live-in-perpetual-fear-1.1581044

To Hash: The breakdown of law and order in SAs townships happened gradually from the 80s and onwards (all though the situation obviously wasn't rosy before then either) and spread to the rest of the country in the 90s. Once a breakdown in law and order has happened the result is that law and order has broken down and there is a breakdown (I will accept a correction of this logic by an English speaker, but not by a frog like you ).

[Hash]

I disagree with your interpretation and semantics, but I have no interest in discussing this trite point further. We'll agree to disagree.

[Hash]

Agang leader Mamphela Ramphele will be the DA's presidential candidate and the party will be merging into the DA

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-28-agang-sa-da-merge-with-ramphele-as-presidential-candidate

[Vosem]

Agang leader Mamphela Ramphele will be the DA's presidential candidate and the party will be merging into the DA

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-28-agang-sa-da-merge-with-ramphele-as-presidential-candidate

Are the Agang voters (who I understand are a very small number of middle-class blacks, maybe 1-3% of the vote) likely to follow Ramphele into the DA? Or will they vote for someone else, or scatter?

[RodPresident]

Agang leader Mamphela Ramphele will be the DA's presidential candidate and the party will be merging into the DA

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-28-agang-sa-da-merge-with-ramphele-as-presidential-candidate

Are the Agang voters (who I understand are a very small number of middle-class blacks, maybe 1-3% of the vote) likely to follow Ramphele into the DA? Or will they vote for someone else, or scatter?

Most important question is if Whites will support her or go to another alternative. Freedom Front can be weakened, as they accepted to support ANC.
And what if ANC loses majority, could South Africa see a repeat of Ireland 1948, with another parties, DA, COPE and even Malema's party joining to government?

[ag]

Most important question is if Whites will support her or go to another alternative. Freedom Front can be weakened, as they accepted to support ANC.
And what if ANC loses majority, could South Africa see a repeat of Ireland 1948, with another parties, DA, COPE and even Malema's party joining to government?

Everything indicates that we will have to wait for a couple more election cycles for ANC to lose the majority, and even afterwards they should be able to continue stitching a ruling coalition for a bit while more. Eventually, though, they will lose it. Who will be the players in a first non-ANC government is still too early to tell.

[Hash]

The DA-Agang merger has been poorly received by Agang's people itself. Many Agang members and even leaders feel betrayed or are pissed that the whole process took place behind closed doors. Given that a lot of Agang supporters were likely blacks with little sympathy for the DA, it's not all that surprising. An Agang leader has already said that the party would contest the election, saying that Ramphele took the decision without consultation and surprised everybody. Indeed, Agang did a piss-poor PR job on this one: on Sunday, it published a statement denying rumours of the DA deal, and the deal was announced the next day and Zille said that they had been in talks for a long time.

There are also reports of DA people being a bit peeved, saying that it was imposed on them. The DA's black rising stars have said that she shouldn't expect to have leadership positions (post-election, given that the DA is lucid enough to know it will lose) thrust open her without an internal contest.

Some good pieces, news or opinion:
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-30-agang-more-than-window-dressing-for-da
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-29-agang-sa-to-contest-election-with-a-new-leader
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-29-00-zille-and-ramphele-a-marriage-of-inconvenience
http://mg.co.za/article/2014-01-30-mamphela-ramphele-rankles-rising-da-stars

Most important question is if Whites will support her or go to another alternative. Freedom Front can be weakened, as they accepted to support ANC.

No, that's not the most important question by far. Whites have no reason to abandon the DA: those hardened racists who can't stand voting for a party with a symbolic black leader as symbolic candidates don't exist in large numbers and probably didn't like the DA to begin with. The VF+ will have no impact whatsoever; they're basically dead (in the English media) outside of election time and nobody cares about them except for the Volkstaat clowns, hardened racists and conservative Afrikaner nationalists (that makes about 10 people).

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That has always been the assumption (or actual fact, in the WC's case). Of course, in the past, the non-ANC opposition parties were all fairly conservative or moderate folks who could get along in an anti-ANC marriage of convenience (especially parties like DA and COPE, or in the past, DA and the IDs and UDM). Malema's gang changes matters since I have a very hard time seeing Malema's gang working with the DA (or vice-versa as well) but that's a moot point since the ANC will not lose in 2014.

[Vosem]

Could the WC or Gauteng see a result where the ANC and all-ANC-parties-sans-EF are both short of a majority, leaving Malema as a kingmaker?

[DC Al Fine]

Could the WC or Gauteng see a result where the ANC and all-ANC-parties-sans-EF are both short of a majority, leaving Malema as a kingmaker?

WC: Not going to happen. DA got an absolute majority last time and they stand to gain seats.

Gauteng: Hash would know better than me.

[StateBoiler]

The DA-Agang merger has been poorly received by Agang's people itself. Many Agang members and even leaders feel betrayed or are pissed that the whole process took place behind closed doors. Given that a lot of Agang supporters were likely blacks with little sympathy for the DA, it's not all that surprising. An Agang leader has already said that the party would contest the election, saying that Ramphele took the decision without consultation and surprised everybody.

Agang apparently is nothing more than a party on paper but not in reality. One South African-based editorial I read said that Agang party members hadn't been paid for awhile (with Ramphele being the money).

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The South Africans on the rugby board I'm on, a lot of whom support DA, think Zille bottled this horribly.

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A lot of the DA vote are old National Party voters that have no one else to vote for. The problem with the DA is their coalition is too broad to keep together if they want to have one message. Why if you're part of the old National Party voting base would you vote for DA when you consider Zille's 180-degree turn on BEE?

[Hash]

Agang (Ramphele) has broken off the deal already, saying that the DA jumped the gun on announcing it and clearly displeased with how the DA was already speaking of her taking DA membership and managing the merger of the parties. She said the DA was playing party politics Zille said Ramphele reneged on the deal, and said that Ramphele was the one who wanted to announce the deal asap. Agang's disgruntled members are a bit happier with Ramphele now, but it remains that both sides handled this kerfuffle in a piss-poor fashion. The ANC is giddy, feeling that this sh**tstorm confirms its initial call on the deal: the DA was 'renting a black'

I like this oped piece on it in the MG: http://mg.co.za/article/2014-02-04-a-guide-on-how-to-botch-a-political-union-in-less-than-a-week

A lot of the DA vote are old National Party voters that have no one else to vote for. The problem with the DA is their coalition is too broad to keep together if they want to have one message. Why if you're part of the old National Party voting base would you vote for DA when you consider Zille's 180-degree turn on BEE?

There's no doubt that the DA has a broad coalition which is probably too broad for the long-term, but at the same time it's also obviously true for the ANC. The reason ex-NP whites vote for the DA is that there is no credible alternative for them: no more than a tiny minority will vote for a black party (eg ANC), the VF+ is not credible for anybody except loons and far-right Afrikaners and there is little chance for a credible alternative appealing to the white minority propping up in the future. If/when the DA wins power nationally, it will be different and the DA could *potentially* break up, but that's a long way off. For now, it can be held together as the main alternative to the ANC (the only one which, for now, can threaten the ANC's hold on power, albeit not in the short-term).

[StateBoiler]

Agang (Ramphele) has broken off the deal already, saying that the DA jumped the gun on announcing it and clearly displeased with how the DA was already speaking of her taking DA membership and managing the merger of the parties. She said the DA was playing party politics Zille said Ramphele reneged on the deal, and said that Ramphele was the one who wanted to announce the deal asap. Agang's disgruntled members are a bit happier with Ramphele now, but it remains that both sides handled this kerfuffle in a piss-poor fashion. The ANC is giddy, feeling that this sh**tstorm confirms its initial call on the deal: the DA was 'renting a black'

I like this oped piece on it in the MG: http://mg.co.za/article/2014-02-04-a-guide-on-how-to-botch-a-political-union-in-less-than-a-week

A lot of the DA vote are old National Party voters that have no one else to vote for. The problem with the DA is their coalition is too broad to keep together if they want to have one message. Why if you're part of the old National Party voting base would you vote for DA when you consider Zille's 180-degree turn on BEE?

There's no doubt that the DA has a broad coalition which is probably too broad for the long-term, but at the same time it's also obviously true for the ANC.

Being too broad a coalition works when you're in power. It doesn't when you're in opposition with no hope of taking power in the near future.

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The DA will never take power nationally. You have to convince a South African electorate that's super-majority black and votes en masse for ANC not only to not vote for ANC but also to vote for a party they're told is a bunch of white racists. I think Inkatha gets more black support than DA and they're only supported in KwaZulu-Natal. A dumbass like Malema will get power before Zille will.

ANC need to realize that Zuma is a huge mistake as leader before they lose control totally. Zuma has done a good job taking control of the party apparatus to stop dissent and a coup as he did to Mbeki, all while he robs the country blind for stuff like Nkandla. Credit to Motlanthe on running for party leadership knowing ahead of time he'd lose to make a point. Their current policies making everything black vs. everyone else is having negative effects on Coloureds and Indians, so the DA may pick them up, but the DA can't expect to support Black Employment Equity and still expect whites, Coloureds, and Indians that are disenfranchised to still vote for them.

2009 Poll on Voting Breakdown by Race:

http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=125340&sn=Detail

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I think the percentage of black voters for the U.S. Republican Party is larger than 0.8%.

[Kosmos]

The DA's black support is still at modest levels probably, but much points to signifant change since 2009. I'm pretty sure it is well above 0,8% by now at least.

Take the recent by-elections for instance in the rural Eastern Cape wards. In two of the wards DA grew their share of the vote from less than 1% in 2011 to 24% and 14%. There is pretty much not a single minority living in that area.

These are not isolated incidents either. In 2013, DA registered similar increases in many other black-dominated wards throughout SA, and they even won a ward in Limpopo with a plurality of the vote.

The difficulty for DA might lie in managing to continue to grow while at the same time keeping its established supporters. Though a lack of alternatives is probably gonna keep most whites voting DA however much they may grumble at some issues like the party's recent acceptance of BEE, etc.

[StateBoiler]

What does the DA stand for other than they're not the ANC then? Which congratulations to them on emulating American politics. /sarcasm

http://www.news24.com/elections/news/billionaire-is-rampheles-mystery-funder-20140209

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[bgwah]

ANC back up to 66%, DA also up to 23%: http://www.news24.com/elections/news/anc-set-to-secure-two-thirds-poll-20140323

[retromike22]

I almost forgot about this election.

[Harry Hayfield]

Polls open at 7.00am local time (6.00am BST / 1.00am EDT) and close at 9.00pm local time (8.00pm BST / 3.00pm EDT). I imagine that ARISE News, TVC News and eNCA Africa will all cover the results in varying degrees of detail.

[DC Al Fine]

How quick is South Africa at counting votes? Is it going to be a like a Western election or will it take a while to get complete results?

[retromike22]

Well, it's today.

[ag]

Unless I am miscalculating, it is just over 30 minutes before the polls close. So exciting! Will ANC get 68% or just 62% of the vote? Will DA crack 25% or fail to crack 20%?

[DC Al Fine]

Unless I am miscalculating, it is just over 30 minutes before the polls close. So exciting! Will ANC get 68% or just 62% of the vote? Will DA crack 25% or fail to crack 20%?

What crazy parties will manage to get 0.2% of the vote and win a seat?

[Famous Mortimer]

I predict the DA gains Western Cape but not Gauteng.

Also, the National Freedom Party surpasses the Inkatha Freedom Party.

[Hash]

The DA already holds the WC, unless you meant the NC.