When does the GOP take back the White House?

[Mr. Illini]

Looking for a year, if you had to predict right now.

I'm going with 8 years of another Democrat and then in 2024, the GOP will finally take it back.

[Del Tachi]

2028.

Clinton wins in 2016.  She forgoes a second-term in 2020 and her VP or other Democratic rising star wins in 2020 and 2024.

[Unimog]

2016

Hillary Clinton is not that good a candidate, so a good republican candidate can win in 2016.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

2017.

[MATTROSE94]

Maybe in 2024 or 2032.

[IceSpear]

I'm gonna say 2024. I see them losing in 2016 with an establishment-esque candidate, the Tea Partiers revolt and nominate a Cruz/Carson/Palin type in 2020 to "prove" they can win with a true conservative. After losing in a 450+ EV landslide to Hillary, the GOP leadership finally begins to learn that their party needs to move into the 21st century and moderate their party, marginalizing the wingnuts.

[Cryptic]

No earlier than 2024.  I think it'll take couple more losses before they make a real effort to moderate.

[Starpaul20]

I can't really see any time before 2024. Maybe even 2028.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Wallstreet Meltdown created a rift between the investor class and Working class. Just like the Dems had to wait 3 terms for the Cold War to end to end R Dominance, the GOP has to play a waiting game as well. 2020 or later.

[Kevin]

2016-Provided they nominate a strong mainstream candidate(ex. someone like Christie, Rubio, Kaisch, or Walker)

I feel many of the Democrats on this forum are seriously underestimating the GOP's chances for 2016. Esp. considering that the White House typically typically changes hands every 8 years between parties. Even in more modern times elections like 1988 were an anomaly not a trend setter.

I also just don't see the Democrats holding the Presidency again in 2016 if Obama's approval ratings don't improve and his woes with the ACA continue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Against Walker, Cruz, Paul not competetive
Against Jeb, Huck or even Rubio it will be competetive

[Kevin]

Against Walker, Cruz, Paul not competetive
Against Jeb, Huck or even Rubio it will be competetive

I can understand against Cruz but why not against Walker or Paul?

Imo if these two make it out of the GOP primary it will because they demonstrated they have the ability to win and build a national movement to ensure victory much like Obama did for Progressives in 2008. Not because these candidates had the backing of the base(which is a straw man argument)

Your wrong on Huck-after 2012 he is clearly damaged goods.

[eric82oslo]

2025 the earliest. More likely in 2029 or 2033. I would put my money on 2029 right now, although it depends so much on the actual candidates in 2025 and how much the parties have changed by then. The thing favoring an early Republican return is the fact that Americans are just as religious today as they were five years ago. In other words, most Americans are still so much more religious than Western Europeans, even Southern Europeans. Republicans policy of banning evolution teaching, denying the existance of climate change and keeping the truth about gun safety/violence hidden, among other things - on a state level in particular - is clearly working by keeping a great number of Americans ignorant. The anti science party is still alive and kicking. However, anti science is a very scary thing to almost any Asian, which is a main reason why Hawaii and California have turned so Democratic as of late.

[Mordecai]

2024

[DC Al Fine]

Obama wins a 2nd term 51-47, and some people are predicting dynasties equaling or exceeding the Depression/WW2 Democrats

[IceSpear]

Obama wins a 2nd term 51-47, and some people are predicting dynasties equaling or exceeding the Depression/WW2 Democrats

That's not as bad as Rove predicting a permanent Republican majority after losing in 2000 and only winning in 2004 by a single state.

[Mordecai]

I feel many of the Democrats on this forum are seriously underestimating the GOP's chances for 2016. Esp. considering that the White House typically typically changes hands every 8 years between parties. Even in more modern times elections like 1988 were an anomaly not a trend setter.

There are usually reasons for this though. It's not an automatic thing.

1960: Close election with a charismatic, telegenic opponent in Kennedy and also recession.
1968: Vietnam War, stalled peace talks and third party spoiler.
1976: Watergate and Ford's pardoning of Nixon.
2000: The Lewinsky scandal, two uninspiring candidates and no immediate pressing issues.
2008: Global financial crisis and the Iraq War.

What is supposed to happen in 2016 that will allow the GOP to retake the White House?

[Mister Mets]

I think it's more likely to happen in 2016.

I've made the argument for the historical precedent before.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176990.0

I get the counterpoint that noting the trend is worthless because there are specific reasons for each time the White House changed hands. But much of that can come to specific tendencies, as politicians delay inevitable problems for a few years (but not more than that) and enough voters decide that their lives haven't been greatly improved recently, so it's time to give the other party a shot.

[Frodo]

Depends whom they nominate two years from now, and (of course) what the climate will be by then.

If they play their cards right, they could take it back as early as the 2016 election cycle. 

Otherwise....