How should the GOP try to win over more Hispanics and Aisans?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Agreed on Clinton, there also have been reports that Bill is still thinking about wherever Hillary should run, because he is worried about his legacy.

Hillary will underperform among youth, hispanics, African Americans, probably asians, and hold the line on white voters. Any effort to make the south competitive will involve cannibalizing their numbers among African Americans. You'll see better GOP performance in general among more diverse demographics, but you'll also see white share of the vote increase.

Yes, but I am worried that she will choose Mark Warner as her VP candidate, which would help in greatly in Virginia.
Also, imagine Rubio gaining 90% of the Cuban vote in 2016....

[Potus]

If she doesn't move left in the primary and picks Warner as her VP, she'll get Mitt'ed. Especially against a more moderate-in-tone type like Christie. Her base will damn her. That problem gets 100 times worse if Bill gets a hold of the campaign. You'll see the liberal echo chamber give up, low progressive turnout, fewer minority voters, and young voters will swing hard in the other direction. Then again, she'll pick up some centrist support but I still think that has a 50-50 chance of being a net positive.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

And Republicans could douche better with the youth vote, as seen in the 2000 election.

[Potus]

The left wing internet echo chamber is already at risk of turning on Hillary. I think of them as the talk radio of the left. If they grow too dissatisfied with Hillary, they'll prop up a movement candidate. The President was bolstered by the internet's adoration. A lot of online opinion makers don't remember the Clinton years. They just know Obama and that the like him. Hillary needs to run from the President or look like "same old same old." That could lead to the alienation of the solid left.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

And she may go too far to the left on issues in the primary, like repealing the partial birth abortion ban act, which 70% of Americans support the ban act (even Joseph Biden supports it).

[Potus]

And she may go too far to the left on issues in the primary, like repealing the partial birth abortion ban act, which 70% of Americans support (even Joseph Biden supports it).

Yeah, that may alienate Hispanics, too.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Agreed. Would it also be right to say that most of the Hispanics that voted Romney because of social issues is what I am wondering.

[Indy Texas]

Agreed on Clinton, there also have been reports that Bill is still thinking about wherever Hillary should run, because he is worried about his legacy.

Hillary will underperform among youth, hispanics, African Americans, probably asians, and hold the line on white voters. Any effort to make the south competitive will involve cannibalizing their numbers among African Americans. You'll see better GOP performance in general among more diverse demographics, but you'll also see white share of the vote increase.

Hillary is more popular among Hispanics than Obama; she killed him among Hispanics in the '08 primaries and the Clinton infrastructure in Hispanic Democratic circles has been firmly entrenched since her husband's first campaign. She'll get over 60% of the vote in California easily and probably in New Mexico too as long as Martinez isn't on the ticket.

[Beezer]

Hillary will underperform among youth, hispanics, African Americans, probably asians, and hold the line on white voters. Any effort to make the south competitive will involve cannibalizing their numbers among African Americans. You'll see better GOP performance in general among more diverse demographics, but you'll also see white share of the vote increase.

So you subscribe to Sean Trende's "missing white voter" theory? The white share of the vote has steadily decreased since the late 80s (except for that small uptick in 92 thanks to Perot). Obama did a great job with black voters but I have a hard time believing that Hillary will do far worse in terms of her share of the vote and turnout. And as mentioned above, she beat Obama quite comfortably among Hispanics in the 08 primaries.

Hispanics voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of nearly two-to-one in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls taken throughout the primary season.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf

I also doubt she's gonna lose white voters by 20 points. If anything HRC represents the perfect storm of great appeal among minorities and a skin color that will allow her to at least win a county or two in WV.

[Potus]

Hillary will underperform among youth, hispanics, African Americans, probably asians, and hold the line on white voters. Any effort to make the south competitive will involve cannibalizing their numbers among African Americans. You'll see better GOP performance in general among more diverse demographics, but you'll also see white share of the vote increase.

So you subscribe to Sean Trende's "missing white voter" theory? The white share of the vote has steadily decreased since the late 80s (except for that small uptick in 92 thanks to Perot). Obama did a great job with black voters but I have a hard time believing that Hillary will do far worse in terms of her share of the vote and turnout. And as mentioned above, she beat Obama quite comfortably among Hispanics in the 08 primaries.

Hispanics voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of nearly two-to-one in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls taken throughout the primary season.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf

I also doubt she's gonna lose white voters by 20 points. If anything HRC represents the perfect storm of great appeal among minorities and a skin color that will allow her to at least win a county or two in WV.

I think the missing whites theory has a bit of credibility, but not enough to swing a presidential election. That's why I'm arguing for African American and Hispanic outreach. I don't think the gross numbers of white voters will increase, I think their share of the electorate will increase because fewer minorities will come out in support of Hillary.

Hispanics are all about messaging. We gotta talk about all issues like values issues. That's why Marco Rubio would do better among Hispanics, he does that fairly well already.

You think that white voters voted a certain way because of the President's skin color but African Americans didn't? That's absurd. Hillary will have issues.

I think the white vote will hold the line. Any gains the Clinton campaign makes among white voters will be among Bill's former constituencies. The votes won't be coming from Ohio, Florida, Colorado, etc. They'll be in Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, etc. That'll be enough to turn them a slightly lighter shade of red, but it won't be flipping the south anytime soon. Especially with lower African American turnout.

[Beezer]

You think that white voters voted a certain way because of the President's skin color but African Americans didn't? That's absurd. Hillary will have issues.

Of course some African Americans also vote on skin color, where did it contend that they don't? But it's not like the GOP was winning a quarter of the black vote before the Obama presidency. Will Hillary do just as well Obama? Probably not. But to be honest I don't think that'll sink her candidacy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is why teenagers should not try to sound like electoral strategy experts.

In 2008 Hillary was actually relying on the black vote in the primary. She would've won it against anyone besides Obama, and some people were speculating that she would win it even against Obama (which I found absurd, but regardless irrelevant to this point.) And Hillary won Hispanics and Asians by a wide margin. The idea that Hillary Clinton would be a weak candidate in regards to minorities is pretty comical.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Very good points, Brewer.
Anyway, apparently the Koch Brothers are at it:
http://news.yahoo.com/koch-affiliated-group-ramps-up-hispanic-outreach-push-204733568.html

[Mordecai]

I just don't get it a few stupid Republicans say something off the wall and people believe  that's what the Republican Party stands for. Its not like these members speak for the whole party. That's what the mainstream media does they say this is the Republican Party(the member who just said something stupid) and people believe it. Its kind of laughable. I do it admit the AZ immigration has to be one of the stupidest thing a Republican has ever done to offend a group of people(Mexicans/Hispanics.)

Well people assume Republicans endorse those remarks because no Republican politicians stand up to denounce them. This is not the fault of the mainstream media, either. They are just reporting what the Republicans say.

The problem is so bad that even registered Hispanic Republicans working to improve the party's relations with the Hispanic population can't put up with it anymore.

Pablo Pantoja, director of the Florida Republican Party's Hispanic Outreach program, resigned from the party last year and registered as a Democrat because Republicans would not rebuke the racism. Read his letter and the interview he did with Salon.

http://thefloridanation.com/?p=555

http://www.salon.com/2013/05/14/why_i_quit_the_republican_party/

You can laugh and blame the media all you want but it doesn't change the fact that there are racist elements of the GOP and they are driving away people who want to be in the party and help build it, but feel like they're treated as second-class citizens.

[hopper]

I just don't get it a few stupid Republicans say something off the wall and people believe  that's what the Republican Party stands for. Its not like these members speak for the whole party. That's what the mainstream media does they say this is the Republican Party(the member who just said something stupid) and people believe it. Its kind of laughable. I do it admit the AZ immigration has to be one of the stupidest thing a Republican has ever done to offend a group of people(Mexicans/Hispanics.)

Well people assume Republicans endorse those remarks because no Republican politicians stand up to denounce them. This is not the fault of the mainstream media, either. They are just reporting what the Republicans say.

The problem is so bad that even registered Hispanic Republicans working to improve the party's relations with the Hispanic population can't put up with it anymore.

Pablo Pantoja, director of the Florida Republican Party's Hispanic Outreach program, resigned from the party last year and registered as a Democrat because Republicans would not rebuke the racism. Read his letter and the interview he did with Salon.

http://thefloridanation.com/?p=555

http://www.salon.com/2013/05/14/why_i_quit_the_republican_party/

You can laugh and blame the media all you want but it doesn't change the fact that there are racist elements of the GOP and they are driving away people who want to be in the party and help build it, but feel like they're treated as second-class citizens.

I get they are reporting what Republican Politicians say.  I get that. Why should somebody else in the party apologize for a remark that somebody else said though? That politician that said the stupid remark should apologize. These are grown people after all not a parent that apologizes for what their kid did.

The former Republican Chair of Hispanic Outreach he must really be a Democrat. Why else join a party that may you only agree with 20% of the time? I get the average Hispanic wants to join the Democrats because he or she thinks the Dems are friendlier to  the Hispanic Community but a Chair for Republican Outreach quits the party? The guy must have discovered he was really a Democrat. Look at Charlie Christ, Artur Davis, or even Marty Martinez they all switched parties after discovering what party they really belong to.

[Ebowed]

Well yes and no. Mexicans are pretty "centrist/moderate" in terms of idealogy on a political scale. The GOP lost them after a few stupid Republicans(after 2004 or 2006) started their anti-immigration rhetoric

Mexican-Americans have always been among the most loyal voting blocks of the Democratic party - a simple look at election results prior to 2004 and 2006 will easily confirm this.  They were not 'lost' as a result of anti-immigration rhetoric.

African Americans-Yes they are culturally conservative but they like Big Government economically(a liberal populist idealogy.) Blacks might vote more Republican in the Western Party of the US but on the East Coast and the Deep South they are Solid D voters.

They don't vote more Republican in the West unless you're just looking at Oklahoma. :-P

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, I just looked into Paul Ryan's anti poverty rhetoric lately, unfortunately, he is sternly conservative on immigration.

What in the world? He is just as much an open borders guy as his mentor Jack Kemp was. He was leading the efforts in the House to get a comprehensive bill through, supports a pathrway to legalization and drastically wants to increase legal immigration numbers. How is he "sternly conservative" on immigration. You make it sound like he is Tom Tancredo.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You think that white voters voted a certain way because of the President's skin color but African Americans didn't? That's absurd. Hillary will have issues.

Of course some African Americans also vote on skin color, where did it contend that they don't? But it's not like the GOP was winning a quarter of the black vote before the Obama presidency. Will Hillary do just as well Obama? Probably not. But to be honest I don't think that'll sink her candidacy.

The Republicans did get into the teens in OH (16% I beleive) and that is probably how Bush held Hamilton country in 2004.

If the Republicans quit acting stupidly, they could probably get back to the teens and maybe to 20% in ten years or so.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hillary will underperform among youth, hispanics, African Americans, probably asians, and hold the line on white voters. Any effort to make the south competitive will involve cannibalizing their numbers among African Americans. You'll see better GOP performance in general among more diverse demographics, but you'll also see white share of the vote increase.

So you subscribe to Sean Trende's "missing white voter" theory? The white share of the vote has steadily decreased since the late 80s (except for that small uptick in 92 thanks to Perot). Obama did a great job with black voters but I have a hard time believing that Hillary will do far worse in terms of her share of the vote and turnout. And as mentioned above, she beat Obama quite comfortably among Hispanics in the 08 primaries.

Hispanics voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of nearly two-to-one in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls taken throughout the primary season.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf

I also doubt she's gonna lose white voters by 20 points. If anything HRC represents the perfect storm of great appeal among minorities and a skin color that will allow her to at least win a county or two in WV.

I think the missing whites theory has a bit of credibility, but not enough to swing a presidential election. That's why I'm arguing for African American and Hispanic outreach. I don't think the gross numbers of white voters will increase, I think their share of the electorate will increase because fewer minorities will come out in support of Hillary.

Any factor alone is not going to flip the 2012 election. Missing white voter theory (part and parcel to Romney's inability to connect with working class voters and unlike their more religious counterparts these are more seclure voters and cannot be brought out by social issues) plus 15% amongst African Americans would certainly flip Ohio and possibly Florida, as well as make NH and IA closer. Romney didn't win Independents by enough, a lot of that was imposed by the the Fluke and Akin scandals especially amongst women voters. Those three combined certainly shift Fl, VA, OH, NH, IA and CO, with PA, NV and WI closer.

[Mordecai]

I get they are reporting what Republican Politicians say.  I get that. Why should somebody else in the party apologize for a remark that somebody else said though? That politician that said the stupid remark should apologize. These are grown people after all not a parent that apologizes for what their kid did.

Not apologize, but make it clear that their remarks do not represent the Republican Party as a whole and try to rein in the craziness.

The former Republican Chair of Hispanic Outreach he must really be a Democrat. Why else join a party that may you only agree with 20% of the time? I get the average Hispanic wants to join the Democrats because he or she thinks the Dems are friendlier to  the Hispanic Community but a Chair for Republican Outreach quits the party? The guy must have discovered he was really a Democrat. Look at Charlie Christ, Artur Davis, or even Marty Martinez they all switched parties after discovering what party they really belong to.

That doesn't make any sense. Did you even read the letter and interview? Probably not.

He says he likes Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and John McCain. He says that business and entrepreneurial issues originally drew him to the GOP and that that racism drove him away. He says he likes the Democratic Party because of their inclusivity and standing up for minorities.

You keep saying that you understand but I don't think you do. Just read his own words and see why he left the Republicans. His views didn't change, he didn't suddenly realize he was in the wrong party, he's a moderate conservative who became fed up with party establishment not backing him up in reaching out to minorities and their tacit approval of the racism.

[hopper]

I get they are reporting what Republican Politicians say.  I get that. Why should somebody else in the party apologize for a remark that somebody else said though? That politician that said the stupid remark should apologize. These are grown people after all not a parent that apologizes for what their kid did.

Not apologize, but make it clear that their remarks do not represent the Republican Party as a whole and try to rein in the craziness.

The former Republican Chair of Hispanic Outreach he must really be a Democrat. Why else join a party that may you only agree with 20% of the time? I get the average Hispanic wants to join the Democrats because he or she thinks the Dems are friendlier to  the Hispanic Community but a Chair for Republican Outreach quits the party? The guy must have discovered he was really a Democrat. Look at Charlie Christ, Artur Davis, or even Marty Martinez they all switched parties after discovering what party they really belong to.

That doesn't make any sense. Did you even read the letter and interview? Probably not.

He says he likes Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and John McCain. He says that business and entrepreneurial issues originally drew him to the GOP and that that racism drove him away. He says he likes the Democratic Party because of their inclusivity and standing up for minorities.

You keep saying that you understand but I don't think you do. Just read his own words and see why he left the Republicans. His views didn't change, he didn't suddenly realize he was in the wrong party, he's a moderate conservative who became fed up with party establishment not backing him up in reaching out to minorities and their tacit approval of the racism.

I just don't believe the Republican Party should make clear some person made a dumb remark and say its not reflective of the party. I stand by my opinion that these are grown people. The RNC or the RCCC should just withhold money from their campaigns and the party can make make their point that way. I don't think the RNC or RCCC should give any money to Steve King this cycle because of his outrageous comment about Hispanics a few months ago. I'm surprised he even shows his face on TV because he is  an embarrassment.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think we lose elections by writing off whole segments of society. If you adjusted the 2012 African American vote to Kerry's level of 88%, that flips Florida. We need to work on an ambitious urban voter agenda. I mean, inner city schools are hellholes. Let's turn them around. Talk about when businesses leave cities, they end up like Detroit and no one wants that for Downtown Cleveland. We just need to talk to them.

It's not nearly that simple. Black people aren't sheep who all vote Democratic just because that's what they've always done. The problem isn't that the Republican message isn't reaching black people; it's that it's odious. Republican policies actively harm black people (and other non-white people) in ways both unintentional and intentional, and that's a fact of which everyone is aware. Outreach won't be enough without massive behavioral modification that would be likely to lose a lot more white voters than it would gain non-white voters.

[hopper]

I think we lose elections by writing off whole segments of society. If you adjusted the 2012 African American vote to Kerry's level of 88%, that flips Florida. We need to work on an ambitious urban voter agenda. I mean, inner city schools are hellholes. Let's turn them around. Talk about when businesses leave cities, they end up like Detroit and no one wants that for Downtown Cleveland. We just need to talk to them.

It's not nearly that simple. Black people aren't sheep who all vote Democratic just because that's what they've always done. The problem isn't that the Republican message isn't reaching black people; it's that it's odious. Republican policies actively harm black people (and other non-white people) in ways both unintentional and intentional, and that's a fact of which everyone is aware. Outreach won't be enough without massive behavioral modification that would be likely to lose a lot more white voters than it would gain non-white voters.

I am a little aware of the immigration issue  that some of the GOP politicians hurt themselves with their rhetoric but what other ways do the GOP harm intentionally or unintentiontally  hurt themselves with?

See with the black vote most of that is in the Northeast or the Deep South so that's hard to get like 20% of the black vote for the R's nationally because the Northeast is left leaning and the Deep South Whites and Blacks mainly bloc vote in their R and D camps respectively. I would even include the Upper Midwest in this conversation as well that Blacks are guaranteed to continually vote D in Presidential elections in that region as well because of their history from the "Great Migration" of several decades ago. The only thing going for the GOP with the black vote that I can see is that they are moving to suburban counties like Charles County, Maryland or Gwinnett County, GA and are moving out of those states cities like Baltimore or Atlanta.

I know Rudy Guliani got 20% of the Black Vote in his 1997 re-election run for Mayor of NYC of all places but that's a hard thing to do.

[All Along The Watchtower]

You folks on the Right who wonder why non-whites don't vote Republican (or single women, or young people in general, or...) do realize how much these particular demographic groupings (that vote Democratic overwhelmingly) overlap with more marginalized social classes, yes?

The problem is the GOP's platform, not the "messaging" or some other nonsense. It's what the GOP stands for on economic and social policy.

In other words, I agree with Xahar.

[hopper]

You folks on the Right who wonder why non-whites don't vote Republican (or single women, or young people in general, or...) do realize how much these particular demographic groupings (that vote Democratic overwhelmingly) overlap with more marginalized social classes, yes?

The problem is the GOP's platform, not the "messaging" or some other nonsense. It's what the GOP stands for on economic and social policy.

In other words, I agree with Xahar.

Social Policy isn't a problem actually since Blacks are culturally conservative and 1st and 2nd generation Hispanics are as well. 3rd generation Hispanics are mostly the same as Non-Hispanic Whites on social issues though: libertarian. The economic policy I don't know I that's a problem but Republicans don't talk about poverty enough until the last few weeks it seems. I have been thinking about this and maybe Republicans need to talk about the issue in Presidential Elections(Bush W. did talk about it a little I think in 00 and 04) and how its a problem in minority communities since Minority Income is lower than it is for Non-Hispanic Whites. Republicans just talk about economic growth but some people don't have even have a job!