When will a county in Massachusetts vote for the Republican candidate?

[old timey villain]

And which county will finally break for the GOP?

Republican presidential candidates haven't won a single county in Massachusetts since 1988.

[Skill and Chance]

Plymouth will likely vote for the next Republican who wins nationally, unless they are a huge SoCon.  In a reverse 2008 environment, Plymouth, Worcester and Barnstable would all flip.  There is a growing rural/urban divide in MA even though the state as a whole isn't shifting.  Also, I'm not sure if Clinton would play better/worse than Obama in those places.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I have noticed there are four counties trending GOP, while the others are staying strong D.

[Smash255]

Plymouth will likely vote for the next Republican who wins nationally, unless they are a huge SoCon.  In a reverse 2008 environment, Plymouth, Worcester and Barnstable would all flip.  There is a growing rural/urban divide in MA even though the state as a whole isn't shifting.  Also, I'm not sure if Clinton would play better/worse than Obama in those places.

I would change that to parts or the eastern half of the state.  That certainly isn't the case in the Berkshires.

[New_Conservative]

Plymouth is already pretty close.

[Sol]

Plymouth will likely vote for the next Republican who wins nationally, unless they are a huge SoCon.  In a reverse 2008 environment, Plymouth, Worcester and Barnstable would all flip.  There is a growing rural/urban divide in MA even though the state as a whole isn't shifting.  Also, I'm not sure if Clinton would play better/worse than Obama in those places.

I would change that to parts or the eastern half of the state.  That certainly isn't the case in the Berkshires.

Or anywhere west of the Worcester Area/ North of Springfield, really

[ElectionsGuy]

Plymouth County will go republican when they win overall nationwide. Of course 2004 was an exception because of Kerry, but it has trended to the right since then.

[Skill and Chance]

Plymouth will likely vote for the next Republican who wins nationally, unless they are a huge SoCon.  In a reverse 2008 environment, Plymouth, Worcester and Barnstable would all flip.  There is a growing rural/urban divide in MA even though the state as a whole isn't shifting.  Also, I'm not sure if Clinton would play better/worse than Obama in those places.

I would change that to parts or the eastern half of the state.  That certainly isn't the case in the Berkshires.

Or anywhere west of the Worcester Area/ North of Springfield, really

Which means only 8/9ths of the population of MA is in the area with a growing rural/urban divide!

[MATTROSE94]

Probably never unless the Republicans become the liberal party and the Democrats become the conservative party in a future political re-alignment.

[Sol]

Plymouth will likely vote for the next Republican who wins nationally, unless they are a huge SoCon.  In a reverse 2008 environment, Plymouth, Worcester and Barnstable would all flip.  There is a growing rural/urban divide in MA even though the state as a whole isn't shifting.  Also, I'm not sure if Clinton would play better/worse than Obama in those places.

I would change that to parts or the eastern half of the state.  That certainly isn't the case in the Berkshires.

Or anywhere west of the Worcester Area/ North of Springfield, really

Which means only 8/9ths of the population of MA is in the area with a growing rural/urban divide!

It's still important to note- otherwise people could get the impression that Pittsfield will vote for Ted Cruz, or something.

[New_Conservative]

Probably never unless the Republicans become the liberal party and the Democrats become the conservative party in a future political re-alignment.

Not true. One of Plymouth/Worcester/Essex (most likely Plymouth) will certainly vote Republican in a winning year for Republicans.

[Ebowed]

Probably never unless the Republicans become the liberal party and the Democrats become the conservative party in a future political re-alignment.

Not true. One of Plymouth/Worcester/Essex (most likely Plymouth) will certainly vote Republican in a winning year for Republicans.

I'd think Barnstable to be more likely than Essex.

[smoltchanov]

Plymouth. Then - Worcester. Then, probably, Barnstable, which is somewhat more socially conservative then fiscally conservative  (but, generally, socially moderate or even liberal) Essex. Then - ... probably nothing..

[Sol]

Plymouth. Then - Worcester. Then, probably, Barnstable, which is somewhat more socially conservative then fiscally conservative  (but, generally, socially moderate or even liberal) Essex. Then - ... probably nothing..

Is Barnstable really that socon? It has Provincetown and stuff...

[smoltchanov]

Plymouth. Then - Worcester. Then, probably, Barnstable, which is somewhat more socially conservative then fiscally conservative  (but, generally, socially moderate or even liberal) Essex. Then - ... probably nothing..

Is Barnstable really that socon? It has Provincetown and stuff...

Not so much by national standards. But at least somewhat - by Massachusetts's. And yes, it includes Provincetown (4th district, represented by Democrat Sarah Peake) and so on. But it includes relatively conservative areas (look at 5th Barnstable, represented by Randy Hunt, for example) too. Essex, while being somewhat fiscally conservative, leans (mostly) very moderate socially. May be - because of number of "upscale" areas.

[Skill and Chance]

Plymouth. Then - Worcester. Then, probably, Barnstable, which is somewhat more socially conservative then fiscally conservative  (but, generally, socially moderate or even liberal) Essex. Then - ... probably nothing..

Is Barnstable really that socon? It has Provincetown and stuff...

Not so much by national standards. But at least somewhat - by Massachusetts's. And yes, it includes Provincetown (4th district, represented by Democrat Sarah Peake) and so on. But it includes relatively conservative areas (look at 5th Barnstable, represented by Randy Hunt, for example) too. Essex, while being somewhat fiscally conservative, leans (mostly) very moderate socially. May be - because of number of "upscale" areas.

Essex is complicated because you have largely libertarian Boston exurbs paired with the populist fishermen.  In terms of number of votes, the exurbs win, but it can produce strange results.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Plymouth is entirely winnable in a good Republican year.

[Mr. Illini]

Is not Barnstable home to many upscale, preppy areas, especially on the Cape? I'm not very familiar with the area, but Barnstable would not strike me as a socon area.

[smoltchanov]

Is not Barnstable home to many upscale, preppy areas, especially on the Cape? I'm not very familiar with the area, but Barnstable would not strike me as a socon area.

As i said - different parts of Barnstable are very different. Sure, it's less conservative then Plymouth and Worcester counties,  but still - there are some conservative towns there... So, it's at least candidate for 3rd place... Cape is more liberal, of course...