Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend

[windjammer]

So republicans think that they have a chance against Udall.

[publicunofficial]

Gardner's fundraising has been pretty low all cycle. I'm guessing he wants to get out of the House and figures he'll at least give the Senate a shot rather than just retire.

[windjammer]

Gardner's fundraising has been pretty low all cycle. I'm guessing he wants to get out of the House and figures he'll at least give the Senate a shot rather than just retire.

And he wasn't polling strong:
April: Udall 49% Gardner 39%
And he will still fall Ken Buck.

[free my dawg]

My first gut reaction says he wins. Gardner's Tea Party, but not crazy like Buck is. He's a rising star in the party, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he clears the field.

Couple that with the anti-Democratic fervor in the state overall and I'm very worried about this seat.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Gardner's fundraising has been pretty low all cycle. I'm guessing he wants to get out of the House and figures he'll at least give the Senate a shot rather than just retire.

And he wasn't polling strong:
April: Udall 49% Gardner 39%
And he will still fall Ken Buck.

Buck is going to run for Gardner's House seat instead.

Ugh.  Obviously not good news for Udall.  A lot of this will depend on national trends, so I suspect we won't have a clear picture of who the winner will be at least until the week of the election.

[windjammer]

My first gut reaction says he wins. Gardner's Tea Party, but not crazy like Buck is. He's a rising star in the party, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if he clears the field.

Couple that with the anti-Democratic fervor in the state overall and I'm very worried about this seat.

So am  I. I don't think Udall is a strong candidate.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Udall may have to fight for this seat again, but Gardner's by no means a shoe-in.  The Tea Party isn't very well-liked at all in Colorado even though the state GOP is pretty much run by it.  Plus, Gardner's anti-environment record isn't going to help him, either.  He's too conservative for a state that is abandoning his brand, in spite of some backlash against state Democrats for reasons that pertain to local factors.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

[backtored]

Udall may have to fight for this seat again, but Gardner's by no means a shoe-in.  The Tea Party isn't very well-liked at all in Colorado even though the state GOP is pretty much run by it.  Plus, Gardner's anti-environment record isn't going to help him, either.  He's too conservative for a state that is abandoning his brand, in spite of some backlash against state Democrats for reasons that pertain to local factors.

That is poli-spin for…....OH SNAP!

[backtored]

I suspect that Cory wins whatever race he runs, which almost makes me rather he take out Hickenlooper and drag legislative Republicans across the line.

If he is running, it is because he will probably win. There was talk about him being in line to be future Speaker, so for him to take this risk means that the polling they have is as bright as the state's big blue sky.

Democrats are right to be worried.

[RogueBeaver]

Hill isn't dropping out. Said Gardner approached him a few weeks ago to drop out but refused. Not that it matters.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Udall may have to fight for this seat again, but Gardner's by no means a shoe-in.  The Tea Party isn't very well-liked at all in Colorado even though the state GOP is pretty much run by it.  Plus, Gardner's anti-environment record isn't going to help him, either.  He's too conservative for a state that is abandoning his brand, in spite of some backlash against state Democrats for reasons that pertain to local factors.

That is poli-spin for…....OH SNAP!

...How is this "spin?"  How is anything that I said thus far untrue?  I said this wasn't good news for Udall.  I don't do what you do and assert that my candidate will win no matter how bad the odds are against him.

[RogueBeaver]

Udall attacking Gardner for a "Centennial State Swap."

[moderatevoter]

Udall attacking Gardner for a "Centennial State Swap."

Oh please.

[RogueBeaver]

Udall attacking Gardner for a "Centennial State Swap."

Oh please.

Yeah, Rahm and Schumer were experts at this.

[windjammer]

Udall attacking Gardner for a "Centennial State Swap."

Oh please.

Yeah, Rahm and Schumer were experts at this.

Of course, but it's politics: hypocrisy

[windjammer]

And Gardner voted to extend the US PATRIOT Act in 2011. Perfect, I hope Udall will attack him about this issue!

[RogueBeaver]

More like personhood amendment.

[Zioneer]

More like personhood amendment.

Why not both?

[Vosem]

People comparing his views to Buck's are missing the point. Colorado is a polarized state between leftist Democrats and rightist Republicans -- Buck's and Gardner's views are what appeal to local Republicans; this isn't the Northeast. Buck was quite inelegant in selling those views. Gardner is famous as a very cautious speaker/politician and is an extremely prolific fundraiser -- which are exactly the qualities the Republicans were looking for. It's a change in style, not in substance, and intentionally so. (Buck would probably not have stepped aside for someone significantly to his left -- remember, he first became famous by aggregating TP support in a primary against Jane Norton, who herself wasn't really much of a moderate).

[RogueBeaver]

Gardner will formally announce tomorrow in Denver.

[RogueBeaver]

Beauprez enters the gubernatorial race Monday but he'll have to run through that clown car primary first. No deal with Tancredo.

[RogueBeaver]

Gardner will start off with a money problem. Curious to see how quickly he can spool up. Needs a few million ASAP. AFP will probably start SEAD soon enough.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So, obviously Gardner isn't that great a fundraiser...

[RogueBeaver]

When you disavow any interest in higher office for most of a cycle (all accounts say only a few weeks ago did wheels start turning) and are in a safe seat, Gardner's numbers are hardly surprising.