How did George Wallace win the 1972 Michigan Democratic Primary in a Landslide?

[JRP1994]

It doesn't make sense. What am I missing?

[⛄]

Well, Michigan is in terms of primaries something like an anti-Bellwether state.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Pity vote. It was right after his assassination attempt. That's probably why he won Maryland as well.

[Sol]

Also, Michigan has a history of racial tension, particularly in the Detroit Area.

[MATTROSE94]

A good portion of George Wallace's support outside the South came from blue-collar voters who feared racial violence and economic competition from blacks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wallace had a habit of moving around politically to wherever seemed advantageous to his own prospects. By 1972 - thinking he had a chance at the nomination - he had dropped the overtly racist pseudo far-right schtick of '68 in favour of a more generic backlash-to-everything message (which still included a strong element of dog-whistling, naturally), with the aim of reaching out to a wider audience. Then he got shot.

[MATTROSE94]

Wallace had a habit of moving around politically to wherever seemed advantageous to his own prospects. By 1972 - thinking he had a chance at the nomination - he had dropped the overtly racist pseudo far-right schtick of '68 in favour of a more generic backlash-to-everything message (which still included a strong element of dog-whistling, naturally), with the aim of reaching out to a wider audience. Then he got shot.

I wonder how he would have done against Nixon if he got the Democratic nomination in 1972?

[BaconBacon96]

Wallace had a habit of moving around politically to wherever seemed advantageous to his own prospects. By 1972 - thinking he had a chance at the nomination - he had dropped the overtly racist pseudo far-right schtick of '68 in favour of a more generic backlash-to-everything message (which still included a strong element of dog-whistling, naturally), with the aim of reaching out to a wider audience. Then he got shot.

I wonder how he would have done against Nixon if he got the Democratic nomination in 1972?

Better than McGovern that's for sure. Although I could see a liberal third party bid mounted if he got the nomination.

[dmmidmi]

The Michigan Daily floated the idea of Republicans voting for Wallace in the Democratic primary, to embarrass the Democratic party: http://www.michigandaily.com/content/michigan-primary-has-long-history-quirkiness

Honestly, this isn't far-fetched at all. Michigan voters are notorious for doing this in primary season. This is exactly why John McCain won the Michigan primary in 2000. And this may be why the 2012 Republican primary in Michigan was so close.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He won (A) because of divided opposition, and (B) he was foresquare against school busing across district lines to achieve racial integration in a year where many parents in suburban Detroit faced the possibility of their children being bussed to inner city schools to achieve racial balances mandated by court orders.  The Detroit suburbs, and Detroit's white ethnic neighborhoods, were all nominally Democratic, but were socially conservative, and did not want their children bussed long distances to attend schools with large percentages of minority students.  These parents had fled the inner city, had sacrificed financially to ensure that their children would attend schools they believed to be quality and safe, and Wallace was the only Democrat who stood against a Court ordering children to be bussed long distances for racial integration.

The busing issue is the issue that kept Michigan in the GOP Presidential Camp from 1972-88.  Local Democrats opposed busing, but the National Democratic Party supported the policy.  The issue was at it's hottest during the 1972 campaign season, and Wallace got the votes of lots of folks who would never have voted for him if busing was not an issue.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Blue collar union workers.  Simple as that.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Blue collar union workers.  Simple as that.

I was always told that the union folks (at least in northern Kentucky and Cincinnati) considered Wallace a big joke. I was told that unionized workers around here were generally for Humphrey in '68 - though I don't know who they supported in '72.

[SingingAnalyst]

Sympathy because he had just been shot, plus opposition to busing.

Wallace/McGovern/Humphrey

MI: 51/32/17
Oakland Co: 54/32/14
Wayne Co: 60/20/20
Macomb Co: 67/19/14
Washtenaw Co: 30/61/9

So it was hardly uniform.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Blue collar union workers.  Simple as that.

I'd think that they'd be opposed to Wallace though, in 68 Humphrey managed to chip away at Wallace's support in the Midwest through an AFL-CIO education campaign pointing out that Alabama was a right to work state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

MI: 51/32/17
Oakland Co: 54/32/14
Wayne Co: 60/20/20
Macomb Co: 67/19/14
Washtenaw Co: 30/61/9

Macomb - working class suburbs and target for white-flight. busing obviously
Wayne Co - Working class whites who remained and didn't want to be bused into Detroit.
Oakland  - more upscale and thus more rich white racism then blue collar racism.


Also remember the history. Working class catholic Democrats in the Northeast had a long history of racism going back to before the Civil War.

[SingingAnalyst]

Oakland County only had a few upscale suburbs in '68, and I suspect those were the communities that voted against Wallace. Southeast Oakland County as well as central Oakland County was very working class and probably voted a lot like Macomb or suburban Wayne.

[Podgy the Bear]

I suspect that Wallace would have won Michigan anyway even if he had not been shot (Maryland is harder to determine). 

Wallace was a serious force for the 1972 Democratic nomination--rolling through all the Southern states.  He was a tremendous vote getter that year, but his people did not know the rules--and in several instances, he hardly received delegates whereas McGovern's people did know the rules and qualified for delegates even where their vote total was not high.

It's interesting to speculate what would have happened otherwise had Wallace stayed healthy.  There was discussion of a Humphrey-Wallace alliance (Jimmy Carter and others proposed this)--or perhaps he would have proceeded with another third party run.

[SingingAnalyst]

Primary voters are hard to predict. In 1988 Jesse Jackson won the MI Dem primary despite Detroit Mayor Young's endorsement of Dukakis. In 2000 McCain won an open GOP primary despite Gov Engler's backing of Bush. Crossover voters are an issue. In 1990 Clark Durant, a conservative activist especially in education and an ally of the Christian right, lost 40-60 in the GOP Senate primary in MI--but won 71% of Jewish voters. You just never know.