Christie: frontrunner or not

[RogueBeaver]

Cillizza says yes, Cook no. Who does everyone agree with?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I would wait a few weeks for Bridge Over Troubled Watergate to cool down and see where he stands. As of now, probably yes.

[ElectionsGuy]

I really could care less at this point, but he probably still is. Everybody's freaking out way too much about the bridge scandal.

[IceSpear]

He's objectively the frontrunner in the sense that he's ahead in both the polls and the invisible primary. Being the frontrunner doesn't mean that he can't still lose the nomination. Not every frontrunner is going to be ahead 50-60 points like Hillary.

[Likely Voter]

I agree with Celizzas "first among equals" alternative but Cook is right that the party wants a true conservative who is also credible (non-kook Gov or Senator). Just look how Perry became frontrunner the second he announced in 2011.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I agree with Celizzas "first among equals" alternative but Cook is right that the party wants a true conservative who is also credible (non-kook Gov or Senator). Just look how Perry became frontrunner the second he announced in 2011.

That's why Scott Walker would be a strong candidate.

[ShadowRocket]

IMO, Cook overestimates the odds of a hard right-winger winning the nomination. If I recall correctly, he was pretty confident that Perry would be the '12 nominee at one point.

I don't deny that the desire is there from the base for a "true conservative", but I remain skeptical that any GOP presidential contender can win the nomination without at least some establishment support.

[RogueBeaver]

Could be what I call a "fusion" candidate like Walker or Rubio.

[Minnesota Mike]

I agree with Celizzas "first among equals" alternative but Cook is right that the party wants a true conservative who is also credible (non-kook Gov or Senator). Just look how Perry became frontrunner the second he announced in 2011.

That's why Scott Walker would be a strong candidate.

Walker has to win in 2014 first. He is slight favorite but  led by only 2 points in the latest poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

[Lief 🗽]

Frontrunner for a prison term, I guess. Though Walker is close behind.

[MATTROSE94]

Not anymore. As of right now, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum are the new frontrunners for the Republican nomination.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Not anymore. As of right now, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum are the new frontrunners for the Republican nomination.

If Walker, Thune, and Bush don't run, the GOP establishment is much more likely to support Rubio than either Santorum or Cruz.

[Indy Texas]

Here's the problem, you need votes to win elections, but you need money to win votes. And the "money primary" for 2016 is basically going to start the day after Election Day 2014. That's when all the pieces on the chessboard are going to be wherever they'll be for the next cycle. That's when the big donors and the bundlers are going to come out of hibernation. That's when the people playing "Will (s)he or won't (s)he?" in public will be quietly forming super-PACs.

If people are still talking about Christie's growing number of "-gates" in November, he's going to have a hard time getting people to buy into his candidacy. They're going to put their money in other people's pots. And Christie doesn't have the option of going after "grassroots" groups or right-wing millionaires like the Kochs or Foster Friess for support; he's not that kind of Republican. If I were a wealthy, mainstream Republican donor looking for an electable "normal" conservative, I would say I have a better option in someone like Jeb Bush, who has most of Christie's positives and none of the scandal. If I wanted a Republican governor from a blue/purple state, I'd rather go with someone like Susana Martinez or Scott Walker.

[New_Conservative]

I hope he's not our candidate in 2016, so I biasly say no.

[Mordecai]

And Christie doesn't have the option of going after "grassroots" groups or right-wing millionaires like the Kochs or Foster Friess for support; he's not that kind of Republican.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/09/audio-chris-christie-koch-brothers-seminar

http://www.bradblog.com/?page_id=8702

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