Tasmania 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to be brutal and unpleasant, but I suppose it will be some vague relief to get it out of the way.

Anyway, Labor have been in power for sixteen years and have spent the past three in coalition with the Greens. Labor's base in Tasmania hate the Greens. Certain extremely unpopular - I would also add bloody stupid and motivated more by mawkish sentiment than anything else - forestry policies have also been pursued, which has made matters significantly worse.

The election will be on the 15th of March. The Liberals will win a comfortable majority unless something bizarre happens. Labor will be back at some point in the not so distant future (as happened after the heavy defeat of 1992).

Tasmania uses PR (based on federal electoral divisions) in state elections. All three party leaders have seats in the same division (Franklin: basically outer Hobart), hilariously enough. Currently Labor and the Liberals have ten seats a piece and the Greens five. Currently all divisions are 2-2-1.

Historically polling for state elections in Tasmania has underestimated Labor and overestimated the Greens.

That will do for now.

[Hifly]

Lara Giddings deserves everything that's coming to her, and it gives me great comfort to know that she may lose her own seat
Hopefully the next state Labor leader won't be so unwise as to pursue a secularist agenda and thus alienate a significant proportion of their base.

[ag]

Which divisions will the Libs get 3 seats in? They need, at least, 3 out of 5 (is it even possible to get 4 seats from a division?) to have a majority.

[MaxQue]

Which divisions will the Libs get 3 seats in? They need, at least, 3 out of 5 (is it even possible to get 4 seats from a division?) to have a majority.

It never happened since they went from 7-seaters to 5-seaters, but there is nothing preventing it, except needing roughly 60% of vote to do so.

[morgieb]

Lara Giddings deserves everything that's coming to her, and it gives me great comfort to know that she may lose her own seat
Hopefully the next state Labor leader won't be so as unwise as to pursue a secularist agenda and thus alienate a significant proportion of their base.

[ObserverIE]

Which divisions will the Libs get 3 seats in? They need, at least, 3 out of 5 (is it even possible to get 4 seats from a division?) to have a majority.

It never happened since they went from 7-seaters to 5-seaters, but there is nothing preventing it, except needing roughly 60% of vote to do so.

50% or so of the first-preference vote is enough for 3/5 under STV. If Tasmania has optional preferential voting, they might even get there with less than that if transfers between their opponents aren't solid.

[morgieb]

Anyway this government is a lot more hated than the SA one, so it's almost impossible to not see a majority government for the bad guys.

[BaconBacon96]

Liberals will win with a majority. Although I'm more interested to see if Palmer wins a seat in Braddon.

[ag]

Anyway this government is a lot more hated than the SA one, so it's almost impossible to not see a majority government for the bad guys.

It may be extremely unpopular, but the electoral system and the lack of a natural partner for the Libs make it hard for them. What happens if they, say, get 12 seats?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Getting an absolute majority in TAS is really bloody hard, to the point that any majority, is a comfortable one.

And hifly continues to show just how little he understands the ALP voter in Australia. The ALP is TAS has taken a number of positions on key industries, especially timber, in the last four years that has really unnerved their base. But you have to consider this... 16 years? There are very few Governments in Australia that have lasted that long in the modern era, and naturally boredom and fatigue kicks in.

So to me, it's a multitude of factors
* boredom and fatigue after 16 years
* terrible economic performance
* The relationship with the Greens, which has knock-on effects, such as
 -> perception of prioritising the wrong things - environmentalism over economic development, as well as the fixation the Government had on cultural events and facilities, such as MONA... people just don't think the Government has its eye on the ball and it's time for something new.

[Frodo]

This is going to be brutal and unpleasant, but I suppose it will be some vague relief to get it out of the way.

Anyway, Labor have been in power for sixteen years and have spent the past three in coalition with the Greens. Labor's base in Tasmania hate the Greens. Certain extremely unpopular - I would also add bloody stupid and motivated more by mawkish sentiment than anything else - forestry policies have also been pursued, which has made matters significantly worse.

The election will be on the 15th of March. The Liberals will win a comfortable majority unless something bizarre happens. Labor will be back at some point in the not so distant future (as happened after the heavy defeat of 1992).

Tasmania uses PR (based on federal electoral divisions) in state elections. All three party leaders have seats in the same division (Franklin: basically outer Hobart), hilariously enough. Currently Labor and the Liberals have ten seats a piece and the Greens five. Currently all divisions are 2-2-1.

Historically polling for state elections in Tasmania has underestimated Labor and overestimated the Greens.

That will do for now.

I'm confused now -I thought the parliamentary election in Tasmania isn't until May 17.   Or is that only the latest possible date the election could be held?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes - May was when Parliament expires, but the optics of letting Parliament expire is awful, especially when you know you're going to lose.

[Hifly]

Brenton Best is still as outspoken as ever;

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-23/tasmanian-labor-mp-calls-premier-a-green-as-party-braces-/5216086

Best holds a seat in Northern Tasmania, where Labor has had to bear the brunt of a massive collapse in public support.

[Smid]

Brenton Best is still as outspoken as ever;

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-23/tasmanian-labor-mp-calls-premier-a-green-as-party-braces-/5216086

Best holds a seat in Northern Tasmania, where Labor has had to bear the brunt of a massive collapse in public support.

Tasmania uses a curious form of proportional representation (Robson Rotation) that does not permit HTV cards and means that individual MPs need to maintain a high personal profile and therefore personal vote, rather than simply rely on ticket votes. I suspect this encourages a lack of discipline and individually rewards disunity, while punishing the brand, this story being the case in point.

He's basically trying to drum up his own personal support, at the cost of talking down his own party and colleagues.

[Frodo]

Poll points to Tasmanian Liberals win

Source AAP
UPDATED 6:40 PM - 13 FEB 2014

Tasmania looks set to have a majority Liberal government on March 15, according to the first independent poll published since the state election was called.

The EMRS poll published on Thursday puts Liberal support at 50 per cent to Labor's 23 and the Greens' 17 when undecided voters are excluded.

With the 23 per cent yet to make up their minds, Premier Lara Giddings' government polls just 16 per cent to the Liberals' 39 and Greens' 14.

Opposition leader Will Hodgman is preferred premier with 48 per cent, while Ms Giddings is polling just 21 and Greens leader Nick McKim 13.

The poll is the first since Ms Giddings announced her party's power-sharing arrangement with the Greens was over.

But it was taken before the premier, who is also treasurer, announced a $450 million budget blowout over the next four years.

[Smid]

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.

It's actually suspiciously high... my immediate thought is if it is true - 23% undecided, this close to the election suggests a typical protest electorate, therefore very unpredictable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Think it's more a pollster method issue.

[Smid]

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.

It's actually suspiciously high... my immediate thought is if it is true - 23% undecided, this close to the election suggests a typical protest electorate, therefore very unpredictable.

My interpretation is generally that a high number of undecideds are people who don't want to vote for the party they have voted for all their life (typically a governing party, but could be an opposition that is well and truly unelectable). They don't want to vote for the party they have never voted for and are waiting for the party they support to offer them something that will convince them to not vote against their party - and virtually any excuse will do (but if they don't get the excuse, they will reluctantly vote against the party that they fell has let them down so badly... see Qld Liberals 2001, NSW and Queensland Labor in the last election in those states).

I thought that Labor distancing itself from the Greens a few weeks ago might just have offered them the excuse they needed, but this poll suggests possibly not/voters saw it as cynical, given the Parliament had already risen.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

[Vega]

I hope Labor wins; and I think they will.

It'd be fantastic if the Greens come in second, though I doubt they will.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I hope Labor wins; and I think they will.

It'd be fantastic if the Greens come in second, though I doubt they will.

What makes you think Labor will win? All the signs are pointing to a defeat for the Tasmanian Labor Party.

[Hifly]

I hope Labor wins; and I think they will.

It'd be fantastic if the Greens come in second, though I doubt they will.

What makes you think Labor will win? All the signs are pointing to a defeat for the Tasmanian Labor Party.

I think he's joking.

[Vega]

I hope Labor wins; and I think they will.

It'd be fantastic if the Greens come in second, though I doubt they will.

What makes you think Labor will win? All the signs are pointing to a defeat for the Tasmanian Labor Party.

I think he's joking.

Yes, my comment was in jest.

Though seriously, I don't think Labor will do quite as bad as polls are saying.

[Hifly]

I hope Labor wins; and I think they will.

It'd be fantastic if the Greens come in second, though I doubt they will.

What makes you think Labor will win? All the signs are pointing to a defeat for the Tasmanian Labor Party.

I think he's joking.

Yes, my comment was in jest.

Though seriously, I don't think Labor will do quite as bad as polls are saying.

Why? Are the polls skewed?