Tasmania 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a tendency for polls in Tasmania to underestimate the Labor vote for whatever reason, but even if that's the case again it won't make much of a difference to the result.

[Vega]

I don't know...

[Hifly]

I don't know...

This says it all.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Al is correct the primary polling firms in Tas have a track record of under-polling the ALP and GRN by up to 6% in the case of the ALP.

A 6% increase in the ALP primary at this point would be the difference between a loss and humiliation. But the voting system they adopt make big majorities virtually impossible.

But the LNP is winning this regardless.

[Platypus]

As quietly optimistic as I am for the ALP in South Australia... I have none of that for the Tasmanian result. It'll be a convincing win for the Liberals, and to be honest, it's probably not such a bad thing. Labor haven't done a bad job necessarily in Tasmania, but change is required. And when, by 2016, everyone in Tasmania hates the Liberals again, it goes a long way to getting Abbott out of office

[Frodo]

Liberals head for election whitewash as Labor faces being relegated to the state's third party

MATT SMITH
MERCURY
MARCH 07, 2014 12:02PM

THE number of Labor MPs in the Tasmanian Parliament could be halved in next week's state election, new polling shows.

A ReachTel poll of 2682 Tasmanians, carried out on Thursday night, shows the Will Hodgman-led Liberal Party is set for majority government.

The Labor Party could even be left with fewer seats than former stablemates the Greens, with polling suggesting Labor is likely to pick up just five or six seats while the Greens could secure between four and six.

Any hopes that Labor's stocks might have been boosted by its dramatic dumping of the Greens in January have evaporated.

The poll follows a Mercury Sky News people's forum at the Hobart Town Hall on Thursday night, which Ms Giddings won on points.

See full poll results here.

[Hifly]

Hoping Brenton Best and David Llewellyn are 2 of the 5 remaining Labor rump.

[RogueBeaver]

Ride that Blue Tide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ride that Blue Tide.

That sounds disgusting...

I'll do a prediction later in the week.

[Hifly]

Newspoll: It's all over.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/newspoll-its-all-over.html?m=1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's been all over for several years now.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.

I pretty much agree, although, the collapse in support for McKim in the Newspoll kind of suggests the Green vote could be much weaker than 16%, and they could plausibly be down to 3 seats. I don't expect that... but could happen.

I'm expecting a primary vote of 50-27-15-8

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

T-minus one hour until the polls close.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

3 booths have returned results in Lyons, with the following swings:

Liberal +25.4%
Labor -20.5%
Greens -11.6%

I'm guessing these are small rural booths that would favour the Liberals traditionally.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The numbers so far in Braddon have a 10% swing against the ALP and a 16% swing to the LNP.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

With 12.4% of the statewide vote in, it looks like Will Hodgman will be the next Premier of Tasmania. The Liberals are on 13 seats, Labor 5 and the Greens 1.

[Hifly]

The ABC Tasmania election night broadcast has degenerated into a nasty cat fight between Eric Abetz and Cassy O'Connor.
Brenton Best isn't doing very well in Braddon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC Tasmania election night broadcast has degenerated into a nasty cat fight between Eric Abetz and Cassy O'Connor.
Brenton Best isn't doing very well in Braddon.

Toodles.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.

So far, I'm a lot more spot on here than I was in SA...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Very graceful and classy speech from Giddings.

[Hifly]

I'm interested in who will be the 2nd ALP candidate elected in Denison. Could social conservative Alphonse Mulamba become the first African in parliament?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm interested in who will be the 2nd ALP candidate elected in Denison. Could social conservative Alphonse Mulamba become the first African in parliament?

Ogilvie and Amos will likely get the second spot.

[Hifly]

I'm interested in who will be the 2nd ALP candidate elected in Denison. Could social conservative Alphonse Mulamba become the first African in parliament?

Ogilvie and Amos will likely get the second spot.

Ogilvie is another religious social conservative so she's good enough.

[Frodo]

The results so far, with 88% of the vote counted:

Liberals: 14
Labor: 6
Greens: 3