Charles Kenny: America Will Soon Be Number Two -And That's Okay

[Frodo]

Didn't we go through something similar with Japan in the 1980s?  And we all know how that turned out:

America is slipping to No. 2. Don’t panic.

By Charles Kenny, Published: January 17

Charles Kenny is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. This essay is adapted from his new book, “The Upside of Down: Why the Rise of the Rest Is Good for the West.”

America will soon cease to be the world’s largest economy. You can argue about why, when and how bad, but the end is indeed nigh. According to the Penn World Tables — the best data to compare gross domestic product across countries — China’s GDP was worth $10.4 trillion in 2011, compared with a U.S. GDP of $13.3 trillion . But with China’s economy growing 7 to 10 percent a year, compared with the recent U.S. track record of less than 3 percent, China should take the lead by 2017 at the latest.

Already, China is the world’s top trading nation , edging the United States in total imports and exports in 2012. And Arvind Subramanian, an economist formerly with the International Monetary Fund, predicts that by 2030 the world will have four major economic players: China will be the heavyweight, followed by the United States and European Union, with economies about half as large, and then India close behind.

Time to panic? A recent Chicago Council survey found that only 9 percent of Americans believe that Chinese growth will mostly benefit the United States, while 40 percent think it will be mostly negative for us. And a 2012 YouGov survey suggests that about half of Americans would prefer to see the United States stay on top, even with anemic economic growth, rather than grow rapidly but be overtaken by China. You only need recall President Obama and Mitt Romney sparring over who would be tougher on China to see how Washington channels this popular angst.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Japa's GDP was a slightly higher fraction of the US GDP in 1988 than China is of the US today, but did people really think Japan would pass the US? They have a lower population, while China has over 4 times the US population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(nominal)

I'm sure China's percentage is higher if you look at PPP instead of nominal GDP.

According to this, China had the highest PPP GDP until after 1870, with India ranked 2nd.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)

[Beet]

According to this, China had the highest PPP GDP until after 1870, with India ranked 2nd.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)

India had the highest PPP GDP until after 1700. It dropped below China under British rule.

[t_host1]

 Through this in http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking and what the Bernanke exiting comments were last week, everything should be just about right for the schedule of the Obama transformation – which is what Bernanke was the most puzzled about; the why, the how come, with all of the stimulus, tarp and his QE interventions, that it just has not achieve the econ activity, the growth of jobs he was expecting.
 I have to admit, I can to see why others would find themselves with similar wonderance, what with them both being of the same finest education and all, go figure. I think he was being a little coy though, saying all these things with that sideways Obama smile, citing in so many words that the Baggers of TEA were the problem.  In short, he feels vindicated, that the world’s greatest bank heist is now complete and nobody is going to prison, a perfect democrat who has progressed from a liberal accomplishment. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Obligatory: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16K6m3Ua2nw

[MasterJedi]

The big question is when China "passes" the US when will it truly pass the US without all the monetary inflation the country refuses to admit they're doing or stop doing.

[TNF]

I for one welcome the end of "Superpower" status. Maybe it'll mean that we can spend more money on things that aren't related to killing people abroad.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obligatory: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16K6m3Ua2nw

Not that I don't agree with a good chunk of it (other than the misogyny and generational resentment), but please don't tell me you watch Aaron Sorkin's Soapboxroom.

As for the actual topic, the clear movement is towards a multipolar world. If you count the EU as one unit America is already #2, and despite China's inevitable status as largest economy it has a shload of internal problems that will prevent it from being a global hegemon the way the US was in the 1990's.

[bgwah]

They're four times our size. They should have a larger economy.

[Cassius]

Its worrying to think that some people don't worry about the rise of a multipolar world.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The worst thing about global geopolitical change is that it keeps writers like Francis Fukuyama employed. Oh, why can't this thing end already?

[MasterJedi]

I for one welcome the end of "Superpower" status. Maybe it'll mean that we can spend more money on things that aren't related to killing people abroad.

Will your Chinese overlords allow that kind of thinking?

[2952-0-0]

According to this, China had the highest PPP GDP until after 1870, with India ranked 2nd.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_(PPP)

India had the highest PPP GDP until after 1700. It dropped below China under British rule.

True, but "India" was politically fragmented just like Europe, so listing it as one entry is not comparable. By contrast, China had a strong central government for most of 2000+ years.

In any case, China is too riven by internal problems to be capable of dominating the world on the scale of 1990s USA, nor does it believe in any universal ideology to motivate it.