Massachusetts- Local swing to the right?

[New_Conservative]

Massachusetts is often looked at as a liberal stronghold, and I would agree it is. But, I think that if  more conservative candidates (especially the Massachusetts wing of the GOP) gave a better effort to win elections, Massachusetts could be a more reliable state for the local wing of the Republican party. I am not saying that Massachusetts will ever again become a tossup in a national election, it is actually fair to say that it is trending more liberal in national elections.

The most liberal areas of Massachusetts are Boston, Worcester, Springfield and the Berkshires. Fall River, New Bedford and Lowell all are less liberal cities than those previous 3, and their suburbs (except for Fall River-- who lean left by a pretty wide margin I'd say) are pretty conservative. Taunton and Attleboro are both conservative in comparison to most cities. 

Plymouth, Barnstable and Essex Counties are all home to the base of the Massachusetts GOP. In 2010, a Republican almost won the Governorship, losing by only 6% in that election. Baker won Plymouth, Essex and Worcester Counties handidly. I think the Massachusetts GOP needs a reality check, and should focus more on trying to win more statewide elections. The only local areas of Massachusetts where a Republican would not be able to contest in is Metro Boston, and the Berkshires. (Bristol County also is tough to win, as Fall River and New Bedford tend to each give about 70% to Dems, but Attleboro and Taunton only give about 50-60%)

What are your thoughts? Do you think the local wing of the GOP needs to step up it's game in Massachusetts?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I don't know locally, but I do know that Worcester County, Norfolk, County, Plymouth County, and Bristol County have been trending R at the presidential level recently.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is generally a pretty good analysis but unless you're already defining the Berkshires to include the (more northerly of the) Hill Towns, the Pioneer Valley, and much (though not all) of the North Quabbin region--areas which are really not actually in the Berkshires--you need to concede significantly more of Western Massachusetts than you are. Republicans aren't going to be winning General Court seats from Hampshire or Franklin Counties for a long, long time, and by the time you get down to local offices party affiliation isn't that important anyway except insofar as local government can present eventual candidates for the General Court or higher offices. Hampden County is another matter. Springfield and Holyoke themselves are right out, obviously, but pretty much every other municipality in the county can be carried by statewide Republicans when the stars are right, and Brown 2010 and Gomez 2013 both I believe carried Hampden as a whole.

If I were a Massachusetts Republican Party operative trying to build up an apparatus that could be more consistently competitive statewide I would try to focus on the General Court, not in the interests of getting a majority or even doing away with the Democratic supermajority but just for the sake of narrowing the supermajority and fostering a deeper bench of potential statewide executive candidates with actual experience in elected office. There are quite a few House districts and some Senate districts in most outer suburban or exurban and a few rural corners of the Commonwealth that the Republicans won in 2010 and could with the right candidates and messaging win again and hold in the relatively long term. It would be easier if counties in this part of the country were actually meaningful entities, because I could easily see Republican County Commissions getting elected in Essex, Worcester, and possibly Hampden and in good years, and they actually do in Plymouth and Barnstable as I understand it.

You should also remember that Fall River, New Bedford, and Lowell are really only almost-within-reach for Republicans in statewide elections; both locally and in Presidential elections they're pretty firmly Democratic.

Come to think of it, what about District Attorneys? I don't actually know much about that side of things.

I don't know locally, but I do know that Worcester County, Norfolk, County, Plymouth County, and Bristol County have been trending R at the presidential level recently.

How are you using the word 'trend' here?

[Miles]

I don't know locally, but I do know that Worcester County, Norfolk, County, Plymouth County, and Bristol County have been trending R at the presidential level recently.

Kerry had the Democratic vote almost maxed out in 2004, so not much room for improvement in 2008. Even with Romney, only 4 counties trended R, most only slightly.

[smoltchanov]

In short - yes and no. Yes - Republicans have obvious base in Plymouth, Worcester, and Barnstable counties.  But there is a problem - most republican candidates, coming from those counties, are socially conservative (abortions, gay rights and so on). That may be all good and well campaigning for state Representative (or, in some cases, state Senate), but absolutely will not go on statewide and congressional level (even in former MA-10 (Plymouth, Barnstable ad so on) and in absolutely stellar 2010 Republican "conservative star" Jeff Perry couldn't win). For these races (and many - in Middlesex and Essex  and some other counties) you need quite another sort of Republicans - with fiscal conservative streak, but moderate (in some cases - openly liberal) on social policy (i call these people a "Winslow Republicans"). But few Republican candidates in Massachusetts of late fit that mold (essentially - Baker and Tisei only) and they are routinely attacked and ridiculed for that by right-wingers.

[Brittain33]

I don't know locally, but I do know that Worcester County, Norfolk, County, Plymouth County, and Bristol County have been trending R at the presidential level recently.

Kerry had the Democratic vote almost maxed out in 2004, so not much room for improvement in 2008. Even with Romney, only 4 counties trended R, most only slightly.

Right, they're only "trending R" in the sense that John Kerry can't be on the ticket every election...

[smoltchanov]

I don't know locally, but I do know that Worcester County, Norfolk, County, Plymouth County, and Bristol County have been trending R at the presidential level recently.

Kerry had the Democratic vote almost maxed out in 2004, so not much room for improvement in 2008. Even with Romney, only 4 counties trended R, most only slightly.

Nevertheless, most of the Worcester and Plymouth counties have a somewhat conservative slant on legislative level too as of late (since 2010).

Right, they're only "trending R" in the sense that John Kerry can't be on the ticket every election...