UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it depends. Reform won a by-election before their breakthrough, and it probably helped them. If UKIP could elect a personable person without any peculiar views, it would be good for their GE prospects. In Reform's case, it gave them four years to hammer the Tories on Quebec/the constitution. A good UKIPer in Westminister would be able to do the same to the British Tories with Europe.

UKIP's candidate here is Roger Helmer who would be a walking disaster as an MP for various reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

telegenic Farage

Two words that I never thought I would see combined without irony...

[YL]

Looking at the European election results in the area:

The constituency contains parts of three local government areas.  Most is in Newark & Sherwood, but the Bingham area in the south is in Rushcliffe, and a rural area in the north around is in Bassetlaw.

UKIP carried Newark & Sherwood district by 32.4% to the Tories' 31.2% and Labour's 21.4%, but it should be noted that the district also contains a substantial part of Sherwood constituency, and it is pretty clear that the part of the district in Sherwood (much of which is coalfield) is substantially worse for the Tories than that in Newark constituency.

The parts in the other two districts are both fairly small.  The Tories carried Rushcliffe fairly comfortably (the rest of the district forms Ken Clarke's constituency, of course) and Labour carried Bassetlaw narrowly over UKIP with the Tories some way behind, but the bit in this constituency is not where the Labour strength is in Bassetlaw.

Putting that together, I think the Tories carried this constituency in the Euros.

[politicus]

I think it depends. Reform won a by-election before their breakthrough, and it probably helped them. If UKIP could elect a personable person without any peculiar views, it would be good for their GE prospects. In Reform's case, it gave them four years to hammer the Tories on Quebec/the constitution. A good UKIPer in Westminister would be able to do the same to the British Tories with Europe.

UKIP's candidate here is Roger Helmer who would be a walking disaster as an MP for various reasons.

What are those reasons?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

However, Rushcliffe includes West Bridgford which will have been comparatively poor for UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are those reasons?

He has been an MEP for fifteen years. British MEPs are mostly lazy morons who do very little work, unless you count the abuse of expenses as work. British voters are fine with this because they do not care about the European Parliament and are barely aware that it exists. British MPs, however, are expected to be active, whether as parliamentarians or as constituency representatives. Voters do not like it when this is not the case. And as a consequence of the 2009 expenses farrago, a very considerable degree of probity and good behavior is now not only expected but demanded.

In other words, there's a reason why the George Galloway Express moves from city to city rather than staying put.

Additionally, he's an idiot who often says stupid and offensive things. That's not so damaging if it's councillor x or candidate y, but if it is an MP, reactions are generally more severe.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any idea of when we will get the result? I'm not willing to sit through media coverage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By-elections usually declare after one; sometimes much later.

[DC Al Fine]

I think it depends. Reform won a by-election before their breakthrough, and it probably helped them. If UKIP could elect a personable person without any peculiar views, it would be good for their GE prospects. In Reform's case, it gave them four years to hammer the Tories on Quebec/the constitution. A good UKIPer in Westminister would be able to do the same to the British Tories with Europe.

UKIP's candidate here is Roger Helmer who would be a walking disaster as an MP for various reasons.

Ah, another time then

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours suggest a 1. Tory, 2. UKIP, 3. Labour lineup, for whatever that's worth. But there are less rumours and they are less detailed than is the norm.

[You kip if you want to...]

Looking at the two Survation polls, evidence of Labs and Libs going tactically for the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weird sh!t happens in circus by-elections. This is the first one for a while, I suppose. Low turnout but not an embarrassing low turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout was 52.8%

[You kip if you want to...]

Turnout was 52.8%

Bang on the same as Eastleigh. Tied for second best of the parliament, behind Mid-Ulster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But note that this is a high turnout constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farage has conceded on behalf of Helmer (!) and says the Tories have won by c. 2,500

[You kip if you want to...]

LibDems in 6th!

haha.

Outstanding result considering they came 7th in Rotherham and South Shields.

[You kip if you want to...]

Malcolm Bruce saying that the Libs aren't a national party and they never have been.

Some revisionism there. These guys were leading in the polls during the last general election campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More to the point, they do have an existing local government base here (a bigger one that Labour, actually). If these rumours are true, that's worse for them than I expected.

[You kip if you want to...]

Dan Hodges tweeting about how the LibDems finishing 6th is bad news for Labour.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dan Hodges tweeting about how the LibDems finishing 6th is bad news for Labour.

It's terrible news for Ed Milliband.

[ObserverIE]

But they have beaten Bus Pass Elvis.

[ObserverIE]

Christ, the Labour guy at the count is a muppet.

Update: And is matched by the Tory in the studio.

[ObserverIE]

Con 45.03% (-8.82%)
UKIP 25.91% (+22.09%)
Lab 17.68% (-4.65%)
Ind (Baggaley) 4.89%   
Green 2.73%   
Lib Dem 2.59% (-17.41%)
MRLP 0.43%   
Ind (Woods) 0.30%   
Elvis 0.22%   
CG 0.17%   
PSP 0.05%   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good result for the Tories under the circumstances; a big majority. Pleased the Labour vote didn't collapse horribly or anything, LibDem vote even worse than expected. This is somewhere where they still have councillors.