UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hahaha lolmedia

Also, I must here point out that this result is terrible news for Ed Milliband.

[YL]

I don't think this was an ideal seat for UKIP, but they were clearly trying to win and only getting 25% must be disappointing for them.  Even if it's true that other parties' supporters ganged up on them by tactically supporting the Tories (which does look plausible from the figures) they didn't get enough votes for that to have been needed.  In a General Election people might feel differently of course, but could something similar happen then in a UKIP target seat?

According to the Guardian UKIP and the Lib Dems are wondering aloud whether the Tories spent more than allowed on their campaign.

[Cassius]

I wonder if I can block Dan Hodges blog posts from the Daily Telegraph. Probably not

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think this was an ideal seat for UKIP, but they were clearly trying to win and only getting 25% must be disappointing for them. 

While the circumstances were certainly ideal (seat vacant due to a corruption scandal, poll held shortly after the Euro elections) and the Tories had the sort of candidate that can could have lost a by-election all by themselves back when a certain yellow hued party enjoyed rather than dreaded them.

[minionofmidas]

Hahaha lolmedia

Also, I must here point out that this result is terrible news for Ed Milliband.

It's terrible news for the Monster Raving Loonies if they still can't beat the LDs in a place like this. I'll go out on a limb and predict the MRLP will not win a single seat in the next general election if this trend continues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember when Robert Jenrick was an unsuccessful candidate in local elections in Broseley. This means that the awful local rag will probably big up The Shropshire Connection of New Tory MP or some similar nauseating bollocks.

[You kip if you want to...]

Robert Jenrick seems like a caricature of a Tory MP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. He's exactly the sort of candidate that - back when the LibDems were a danger in by-elections - the Tories had a habit of wishing they hadn't selected.

[minionofmidas]

Yes. He's exactly the sort of candidate that - back when the LibDems were a danger in by-elections - the Tories had a habit of wishing they hadn't selected.

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Jacob Rees-Mogg, is that you? (That name always sounds like a great name for a tomcat to me.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eye Manor even has its own wikipedia entry!

[joevsimp]

According to the Guardian UKIP and the Lib Dems are wondering aloud whether the Tories spent more than allowed on their campaign.

I doubt they'd be so blatant as to spend more that £100,000 0n the campaign, but there were some similar mutterings at the last general election that money was spent on the council election tab that had an effect on the parliamentary campaign. Might be something similar with euro money being disproportionately spent  in Newark

of course i'm merely speculating on what the lib dems might be thinking, i'm sure that the tories didn't do anything illegal.  Sneaky and underhanded on the other hand...

[ChrisDR68]

Robert Jenrick seems like a caricature of a Tory MP.

Posh, monied and with a superior slightly patronising air about them... it's easy to see why 64% of the UK electorate dislike the Tories so effortlessly

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

According to the Guardian UKIP and the Lib Dems are wondering aloud whether the Tories spent more than allowed on their campaign.

I doubt they'd be so blatant as to spend more that £100,000 0n the campaign, but there were some similar mutterings at the last general election that money was spent on the council election tab that had an effect on the parliamentary campaign. Might be something similar with euro money being disproportionately spent  in Newark

of course i'm merely speculating on what the lib dems might be thinking, i'm sure that the tories didn't do anything illegal.  Sneaky and underhanded on the other hand...

It's not like campaign overspending has ever happened before in Newark.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South Cambridgeshire is a potential by-election; Andrew Lansley being widely associated with Britain's EC spot. Most of the area has been represented by the Tories since 1950. Lansley's majority is solid rather than large (13.3%) but that's over the LibDems.

[joevsimp]

South Cambridgeshire is a potential by-election; Andrew Lansley being widely associated with Britain's EC spot. Most of the area has been represented by the Tories since 1950. Lansley's majority is solid rather than large (13.3%) but that's over the LibDems.

not that I like making everything about UKIP, but what do we think? 20% second place?

Why does Cameron want to bump Lansley of all people off to Brussels? he's been doing such a good job at health.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't know, looking at the map of Cambridgeshire 2013 elections, UKIP did not penetrate any of South Cambridgeshire and maintained their sprawling rural wards.



Looking at the ward-by-ward results for South C, it looks like the LD's haven't entered freefall; so the party may still remain second. If a "Newark" result occurs here, we can only declare Libdemegeddon.

I can't find the Euro election results though, which may be more helpful.

[YL]

Will there even be a by-election, though?  I suspect that if the seat becomes vacant too late for one before Christmas, it'll just be left vacant.

Quite a bit of that area is effectively Cambridge suburbs and exurbs, not what I'd have thought of as prime Kipper territory.  It's not the real Fens.

[joevsimp]

I can't find the Euro election results though, which may be more helpful.

           Con   Lab   LD   UKIP Green Oth
2014   32.4   13.9   14.8   24.2     11.6   3.1

that's South Cambs district, which includes parts to the east that aren't in the constituency

not all wards were up in the local elections this year, but the lib dems held all of the ones that they were defending, UKIP only stood in one and got 16%

[You kip if you want to...]

Will there even be a by-election, though?  I suspect that if the seat becomes vacant too late for one before Christmas, it'll just be left vacant.

Nah, there's been really late by-elections before. Wirral South 1997 probably being the most notable. Also, a two or three months before the election, a Tory hold (which it would easily be) would really cheer up the party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't find the Euro election results though, which may be more helpful.

No, they wouldn't be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will there even be a by-election, though?  I suspect that if the seat becomes vacant too late for one before Christmas, it'll just be left vacant.

Yeah, there's a good chance of that being so.

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Think it still includes a ward of Cambridge proper.

[MaxQue]

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Think it still includes a ward of Cambridge proper.

Yes, Queen Edith's (a Lib Dem stronghold). No clue who was Queen Edith, through.
25 of the 34 South Cambridgeshire, too (exceptions are Balsham, Fulbourn, Histon and Impington, Linton, Milton, Teversham, The Wilbrahams, Waterbeach, Willingham and Over).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edith of Wessex possibly? But I'm not actually sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mike Hancock's political career is clearly very very over now.

He will presumably try to avoid resigning his seat and his (soon to be former?) party would not wish for a by-election, which would be a circus and a free-for-all.

[stepney]

Mike Hancock's political career is clearly very very over now.

He will presumably try to avoid resigning his seat and his (soon to be former?) party would not wish for a by-election, which would be a circus and a free-for-all.

Well, plainly he's not going to resign and cause a by-election; that would entail the abstract concept of shame. And if that hasn't kicked in by now, it never will...