UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Carswell will almost certainly be elected, but is there a chance he could be buried in the general election's "Labour v. Tory" shuffle?

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP faded in 2010 because they only received publicity during the 2009 Euro elections and were swiftly forgotten about. But now they have firmly been in the public eye for two years. Carswell will pretty comfortably hold next year too, in my view, and UKIP will break 10% nationally.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

There's no by-election previews this week (unless Kris has written one), but there are three contests today. In Oxford Labour are defending Carfax ward, which covers the city centre, after their councillor resigned due to pressure of work (she now runs a department at King's College London). The electorate in Carfax is overwhelmingly Oxford University students living in colleges, so God only knows how low the turnout is going to be with the University in recess. Labour are also defending Old Dean ward in Camberley, Surrey, which is the only reliable Labour ward in Surrey Heath district. Finally, the Tories are under pressure from UKIP in Harvey Central ward, Folkestone, where the previous Tory councillor resigned after the local newspaper started investigating his debts.

[YL]

Roger Lord (the candidate UKIP originally selected for the general election in Clacton) lashes out at Farage.

I'm somewhat disappointed that he doesn't appear to be planning to change his name by deed poll to Douglas Carsweel and stand in the by-election for An Independence From Europe.

In other developments, the Tories are going to decide who loses to Carswell for them in what the Guardian calls a "US-style open primary" but sounds more like a sort of open caucus: "a public meeting on Thursday 11 September at which residents will be able to vote for their preferred candidate from a shortlist of four selected by the local association".  And of course some people are saying that someone whose given names are Alexander Boris de Pfeffel should be one of the candidates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A possible precedent of sorts.

[Phony Moderate]

What impact, if any, would a Yes vote have on the situation in Clacton? Some people ('some people' as in politicalbetting.com) are suggesting that it would unleash a wave of nationalism throughout the UK and UKIP would be the main beneficies in England.

[GAworth]

The Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton, Jim Dobbin, has passed away.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29100304

Post modified by El Caudillo: let's have some basic human decency here people

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think what you meant to write was that Jim Dobbin (Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton since 1997) has died.

[GAworth]

The Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton, Jim Dobbin, has passed away.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29100304

Post modified by El Caudillo: let's have some basic human decency here people

My apologies. I didn't think it sounded that way when I wrote it. Yeah, that's what you get when you rush.

[Zanas]

I think what you meant to write was that Jim Dobbin (Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton since 1997) has died.

Ding dong, eh, Al ?

[Cassius]

Matthew Parris currently at his most loathsome regarding Clacton.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I do love when retired politicians realise they don't need to appease electorate any more, and just spew all the stored-up bile they've squirrelled away, without care. I doubt it will help the alienation of provincial people who feel alienated by the big cities, though.

[Hifly]

The Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton, Jim Dobbin, has passed away.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29100304

Post modified by El Caudillo: let's have some basic human decency here people

This is very sad news

Jim Dobbin was Chairman of the Parliamentary Pro-Life Group. Labour has lost 2 pro-life fighters in Joe Benton and Jim Dobbin in the next Parliament.

[Kushahontas]

The Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton, Jim Dobbin, has passed away.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29100304

Post modified by El Caudillo: let's have some basic human decency here people

This is very sad news

Jim Dobbin was Chairman of the Parliamentary Pro-Life Group. Labour has lost 2 pro-life fighters in Joe Benton and Jim Dobbin in the next Parliament.

........................................................oh no

[Jens]

The Labour MP for Heywood & Middleton, Jim Dobbin, has passed away.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29100304

Post modified by El Caudillo: let's have some basic human decency here people

This is very sad news

Jim Dobbin was Chairman of the Parliamentary Pro-Life Group. Labour has lost 2 pro-life fighters in Joe Benton and Jim Dobbin in the next Parliament.

Is there really any significant anti-abortion faction in Labour?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a not large but also not negligible group of Catholic Labour MPs who are strongly opposed to abortion. There's a larger group (more mixed, but still with a Catholic lean) who are notably ambivalent about the subject.

[Jens]

There is a not large but also not negligible group of Catholic Labour MPs who are strongly opposed to abortion. There's a larger group (more mixed, but still with a Catholic lean) who are notably ambivalent about the subject.

Interesting - it's an absolute non-issue within the Social Democrats and the left wing parties in DK. But then again, no catholic faction either

[YL]

Labour have moved the writ for the Heywood & Middleton by-election caused by Jim Dobbin's death, so it'll be held on 9 October together with Clacton.

[joevsimp]

according to this table posted on the local elections thread, the local results across the constituency (Heywood, not Clacton) was Lab 41, Ukip 25, Con 22, LD 10

I'd be very surprised if Ukip win this one but its not one that I think Labour are looking forward to

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, and Labour are terrified enough to force the writ to move backwards so they can quickly mobilise their machine and prevent UKIP momentum building.

It's odd that Catholic factions are considered social conservatives in the UK and Australia, but in the US Catholics are relatively moderate.

[EPG]

Some hypotheses.
1. There are more evangelical/Pentecostal Christians to push the Overton window rightwards in the USA - but what about the Netherlands?
2. Catholics are more firmly in the left-wing bloc in UK/Australia, so social conservatism stands out more.
3. Actually, pro-life US Democrats probably are Catholic (or in the South).

[DL]

In contrast in Canada our version of the Labour Party - the NDP - is 100% pro-choice and you are not allowed to be a candidate (let alone sit in caucus) unless you pledge to support abortion rights in any parliamentary vote. The Liberals used to be more divided but now their leader Justin Trudeau has also said that no one will be allowed to run in the next election unless they support abortion rights - though a handful of incumbent pro-life Liberal MPs will be "grandfathered" and allowed to continue to be anti-choice.

[Hifly]

In contrast in Canada our version of the Labour Party - the NDP - is 100% pro-choice and you are not allowed to be a candidate (let alone sit in caucus) unless you pledge to support abortion rights in any parliamentary vote. The Liberals used to be more divided but now their leader Justin Trudeau has also said that no one will be allowed to run in the next election unless they support abortion rights - though a handful of incumbent pro-life Liberal MPs will be "grandfathered" and allowed to continue to be anti-choice.

The silver lining in this is that the NDP has never, and will never form government, so I guess they can do what they want.

[YL]

Even the Lib Dems in the UK have a pro-life minority.  Indeed one of the more high profile pro-life MPs in the 1980s was a Liberal/Lib Dem, David Alton.

Back on topic, the Tory "primary" in Clacton is tonight.  There are only two candidates (perhaps it wasn't the most attractive vacancy...) who will have a debate followed by a vote.

[politicus]

In contrast in Canada our version of the Labour Party - the NDP - is 100% pro-choice and you are not allowed to be a candidate (let alone sit in caucus) unless you pledge to support abortion rights in any parliamentary vote. The Liberals used to be more divided but now their leader Justin Trudeau has also said that no one will be allowed to run in the next election unless they support abortion rights - though a handful of incumbent pro-life Liberal MPs will be "grandfathered" and allowed to continue to be anti-choice.

The silver lining in this is that the NDP has never, and will never form government, so I guess they can do what they want.

Saying that a party as strong as NDP will never form a government is absurd. The Grits may very well collapse at some point leaving NDP as one of the pillars of a two party system. Just because something isn't going to happen in the immediate future doesn't mean its never going to happen.