UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, apparently it is a bundle check after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold

[ObserverIE]

McInnes, Liz (Lab) 11,633 (40.86%)
Bickley, John Joseph (UKIP) 11,016 (38.69%)
Gartside, Iain Brian (Con) 3,496 (12.28%)
Smith, Anthony (Lib Dem) 1,457 (5.12%)
Jackson, Abigail (Green) 870 (3.06%)

[YL]

Labour vote very slightly up on 2010, Tories down 15%, LDs down 17% (but deposit just held, which may be a minor triumph).  Very good result for the Kippers

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Christ that was closer than I thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At least our percentage was up

Seriously though... 11,600 is an... unimpressive... number, and questions should be asked about it. Now, from noises made at the count, Labour seem to have assumed turnout would be higher than it was... and were obviously spooked by the actual figures. Which sounds to me like the campaign was a total fyck up.

Will also note that UKIP did have an 'issue' here and they certainly used it: Heywood & Middleton is in Rochdale Borough, where there has been a grooming scandal.

[Lumine]

Low turnout or not, I am quite shocked about Heywood & Middleton, I was expecting Labour to have at least a 10 point lead. Both Labour and the Conservatives won't go easy on Reckless after this, but he might actually retain his seat, which looked doubtful right after his switch...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the Labour vote is at the lower end of expectations though isn't actually worse than them, but there's no doubting that UKIP polled better than seemed likely. I was personally guessing a majority somewhere between 12pts and 7pts, fwiw.

_{(silver lining: more reason to be leery of constituency polling)}

[YL]

Still waiting for Clacton...  They said it'd be in about 5 minutes about 15 minutes ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those not familiar, when I mentioned the grooming scandal I was referring to this. Despite the name of the article, the abuse happened in Heywood. Knowl View school (where there was an abuse scandal of a different sort) was also in the constituency.

[YL]

Clacton: Carswell 21113, Tory 8709, majority 12404.

Greens beat LDs.

[Barnes]

I think mediocre is the operative term to describe Labor's performance in Heywood, and they certainly can't afford to be too mediocre* this close to a general election.

*A reasonable degree of mediocritie is expected from all three major parties at regular intervals, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clacton is apparently:

UKIP 21113 59.7%
Con    8709 24.6%
Lab    3957 11.2%
Grn      688  1.9%
LD       483  1.4%
Ind S   205  0.6%
MRLP  127  0.4%
Ind R     56  0.2%

Those figures are similar enough to those of the 1973 Lincoln by-election to be at least mildly amusing.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Wonderful!

[Barnes]

Clacton is apparently:

UKIP 21113 59.7%
Con    8709 24.6%
Lab    3957 11.2%
Grn      688  1.9%
LD       483  1.4%
Ind S   205  0.6%
MRLP  127  0.4%
Ind R     56  0.2%

Those figures are similar enough to those of the 1973 Lincoln by-election to be at least mildly amusing.

Now if only UKIP would follow Democratic Labor's lead and fizzle out of existence.

Although the similarity of a result between two pro and anti-EU parties spaced some 40 years apart is rather hilarious.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Wonderful!

Congratulations to Douglas Carswell!

Also, to quote Blur, this is how I'm feeling at the moment!

[SNJ1985]

McInnes, Liz (Lab) 11,633 (40.86%)
Bickley, John Joseph (UKIP) 11,016 (38.69%)
Gartside, Iain Brian (Con) 3,496 (12.28%)
Smith, Anthony (Lib Dem) 1,457 (5.12%)
Jackson, Abigail (Green) 870 (3.06%)

Looks like Farage was right:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/07/nigel-farage-ukip-heywood-middleton-byelection-close-labour

[BaconBacon96]

RIP Liberal Democrats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not only are UKIP stealing the LibDem's old function, they're even stealing their lines: they've now claimed to be the only truly national party, which as most of you will recall...

[Barnes]

Not only are UKIP stealing the LibDem's old function, they're even stealing their lines: they've now claimed to be the only truly national party, which as most of you will recall...

Ugh...

They're going to become so much more insufferable now.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's an curious thought: remember how in 2010, all sorts of Guardianasta's and the like came forward to say "We must vote Lib Dem, whatever their platform; for only they can bring about the electoral reform this country needs!"

Imagine if those people all start voting for UKIP - after all, they are an PR supporting minor party with a chance of bringing about such reform. And I did hear a lot of people say "I'll vote for anyone who gives me electoral reform"...

[YL]

There's an article about Heywood & Middleton on the Guardian website by Helen Pidd (do they have anyone else who can cover Northern by-elections?).  Its premise seems to be that Labour's mistake was not turning themselves into some sort of UKIP-lite.  Possibly the one thing to be said for it is that it isn't as bad as the comments below it.

By the way, does anyone think that a falling out between Carswell and Farage at some point is quite likely?

[Cassius]

There's an article about Heywood & Middleton on the Guardian website by Helen Pidd (do they have anyone else who can cover Northern by-elections?).  Its premise seems to be that Labour's mistake was not turning themselves into some sort of UKIP-lite.  Possibly the one thing to be said for it is that it isn't as bad as the comments below it.

By the way, does anyone think that a falling out between Carswell and Farage at some point is quite likely?

I'd imagine so, given that Carswell seems to place (at least publically) a very high value on his 'principles'. Add to that the fact that UKIP seems unable to sustain more than one large personality, well...

Anyway, fantastic result in both seats of course. Particularly gratifying to see the yellow mongrels pushed down to only 1.4% in Clacton.

Of course, it will also be interesting to see how Dan Hodges attempts to write up these results as a strategic triumph for David Cameron and a failure for UKIP.

[Phony Moderate]

Another noteworthy tidbit is that the Clacton polls weren't entirely useless. Pity the same can't be said for H&M.

[afleitch]