UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[afleitch]

UKIP could end up eating itself over picking Helmer. He's not the best communicator in the world and as we've seen has opinions that you don't even hear down the pub anymore. The Tories haven't won a by-election in government since 1989, their chances here look better than they did when the by-election was called.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He has his own resources as MEP and his views won't be as much of a hindrance in Newark as they are among internet progressives.

Doubtless not, but views like that are hardly mainstream in places like Newark either. Its a large country town, not one of those weird little places out in the Fens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously if you wanted it to hurt electorally you'd have to do something other than jump up and down and scream bigot. Not disputing that...

Slightly tangentially, MEPs have historically made less than brilliant by-election candidates. 'Issues' tend to come with being based in Brussels...

[doktorb]

It is a peculiar choice for UKIP: not so much getting them out of the pub so much as having them leaping over the bar to slurp mild straight from the taps...

[You kip if you want to...]

As the old joke goes though, the only difference between a UKIP supporter and a BNP supporter is a few too many pints.

[EPG]

Bear in mind that they did elect Patrick Mercer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that is a fair point.

[doktorb]

David Watts for the LibDems
Dick Rogers for Common Good

[YL]

Dick Rogers for Common Good

According to Wikipedia, they once got 313% of the vote in a Birmingham council election.  The rest of their electoral record is less impressive...

[doktorb]

Nick The Flying Brick Delves for the OMRLP

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So Labour are only going to run a skeleton campaign for this one (cash-strapped), and running a 25 year old student politician type as candidate. This is probably going to step up to be a Tory vs. Helmer affair.

Ugh, imagine if we had a two round voting system and had to choose between Helmer and the government.

Who thinks the Lib Dems will save their deposit? (The answer is no, they won't.)

[MaxQue]

Who thinks the Lib Dems will save their deposit? (The answer is no, they won't.)

Well, Southwell elected LD councillors in 2011 (last local elections), so it might be possible.

[EPG]

If Labour don't campaign, Lib Dems will probably get more than 5%.

[doktorb]

Who thinks the Lib Dems will save their deposit? (The answer is no, they won't.)

We will..

[YL]

So Labour are only going to run a skeleton campaign for this one (cash-strapped), and running a 25 year old student politician type as candidate. This is probably going to step up to be a Tory vs. Helmer affair.

Ugh, imagine if we had a two round voting system and had to choose between Helmer and the government.

I'd either hold my nose and vote for the Government (if the Government candidate was a Lib Dem or relatively sane sort of Tory) or spoil my ballot.

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One danger for the Lib Dems, deposit-wise, is that if this becomes perceived as a Con/UKIP contest (which seems likely) then the more Coalition-tolerant part of their 2010 vote may be squeezed by the Tories.

I think on balance I'd expect them to hold it -- they had over 20% here in 2010, and while that was true in Wythenshawe & Sale East too, Newark isn't very like Wythenshawe -- but I wouldn't be that surprised if they didn't.

[doktorb]

Green Party to stand here - https://mobile.twitter.com/davegaz/status/465927462032244736

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So Labour are only going to run a skeleton campaign for this one (cash-strapped), and running a 25 year old student politician type as candidate. This is probably going to step up to be a Tory vs. Helmer affair.

Ugh, imagine if we had a two round voting system and had to choose between Helmer and the government.

I'd either hold my nose and vote for the Government (if the Government candidate was a Lib Dem or relatively sane sort of Tory) or spoil my ballot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One danger for the Lib Dems, deposit-wise, is that if this becomes perceived as a Con/UKIP contest (which seems likely) then the more Coalition-tolerant part of their 2010 vote may be squeezed by the Tories.

I think on balance I'd expect them to hold it -- they had over 20% here in 2010, and while that was true in Wythenshawe & Sale East too, Newark isn't very like Wythenshawe -- but I wouldn't be that surprised if they didn't.

That's exactly what I was thinking. The left wing of the Lib Dems base have long gone, and the Tory seems like a sort of agreeable careerist who could grab right leaning Liberals. Obviously he could be a Hutchings style loon, but the only real known quantity at the moment is Helmer, who LD's certainly want out of parliament.

I suppose the one benefit is the Liberal candidate is actually local and hasn't been parachuted in, so he could have a local following.

[doktorb]

From the Newark Advertiser

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[doktorb]

Official list

   Paul BAGGALEY (Independent)   
   David BISHOP   (Bus Pass Elvis)   
   Nick The Flying BRICK    (Monster Raving Loony)
   Andy HAYES      (Independent)
   Roger HELMER   (UK Independence Party (   UKIP))
   Robert JENRICK   (Conservative)
   David KIRWAN   (Green)
   Michael PAYNE   (Labour)
        Dick RODGERS    (Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britian's Money)
   David WATTS   (Liberal Democrat)
   Lee WOODS.        (Patriotic Socialist)

[Meeker]

So what would folks put UKIP's odds at in Newark?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation poll for the Scum: Con 36, UKIP 28, Labour 27, LDem 5

Take with appropriately vast quantities of salt.

[YL]

Survation poll for the Scum: Con 36, UKIP 28, Labour 27, LDem 5

Take with appropriately vast quantities of salt.

That's better for Labour than I was expecting.  (Salt taken, mind.)

By-election polls in this parliament have had a bit of a habit of underestimating UKIP, but the timing of this poll might mean otherwise.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

[afleitch]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

It would be the first Tory hold in a by-election while in government since 1989. Actually holding it is more out of the ordinary.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

It would be the first Tory hold in a by-election while in government since 1989. Actually holding it is more out of the ordinary.

And look what happened to them after their last string of by-election defenses when they were last in government...