UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[You kip if you want to...]

Caused by the death of Paul Goggins who had been the Member of Parliament for this seat since its creation in 1997.

A constituency on the border of Greater Manchester and Chester, Wythenshawe & Sale East is probably most notable for having the largest council estate estate in Europe and, of course, Manchester airport. There is quite a bit've middle class suburbia in the Sale end of the constituency.

Result in 2010


Local elections results from 2012 for the main four parties compared to their results from the locals in 2010
Labour 56.9% (+14.6%)
Tory 22.4% (-2.4%)
Liberal 6.6% (-17.6%)
UKIP 6.3% (+3.3%)

Of the 24 councillors in the constituency, 20 are Labour, 3 are Tories and there's 1 Liberal Democrat.

[Supersonic]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

[You kip if you want to...]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

They won't pick their 2010 candidate, surely and I can't see Paul Nuttall connecting here, especially if Labour go for a local.

Applications for Labour opened Saturday morning and close tomorrow with shortlisting on Wednesday, they're not wasting any time. I think they want a good result here after a pretty poor showing to UKIP in South Shields.

[Supersonic]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

They won't pick their 2010 candidate, surely and I can't see Paul Nuttall connecting here, especially if Labour go for a local.

Applications for Labour opened Saturday morning and close tomorrow with shortlisting on Wednesday, they're not wasting any time. I think they want a good result here after a pretty poor showing to UKIP in South Shields.

Indeed. Do we know if the by-election will be held before the Euros? If so, a solid result for Labour will give them some good headlines building up to the May elections, same of course, with UKIP.

[You kip if you want to...]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

They won't pick their 2010 candidate, surely and I can't see Paul Nuttall connecting here, especially if Labour go for a local.

Applications for Labour opened Saturday morning and close tomorrow with shortlisting on Wednesday, they're not wasting any time. I think they want a good result here after a pretty poor showing to UKIP in South Shields.

Indeed. Do we know if the by-election will be held before the Euros? If so, a solid result for Labour will give them some good headlines building up to the May elections, same of course, with UKIP.

Leaving it until May wouldn't really make sense. Labour probably wants to get it out the way for some good headlines and to stop any UKIP support building in a long campaign. Maybe early March?

[TTS1996]

I refuse to go along with the "Free schools are bad, Toby Young runs a free school, therefore Toby Young's articles must be dreck" thinking - but Toby Young deserves a kicking for this:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100253989/ukip-can-beat-labour-in-the-wythenshawe-and-sale-east-by-election-and-conservatives-should-support-them/

So, the oldest political party in the world should cede place to a bunch of narcissistic fruitcakes, loonies, racists, protest voters who are never going to vote for one of the mainstream parties (cf. ex-Lib Dem voters), and prats and out-and-out tossers, who mainly want to "destroy" the Tory Party for getting in their way Ted Heath, 1972, and all that.

Yeah, right, sod off Farridge.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Caused by the death of Paul Goggins who had been the Member of Parliament for this seat since its creation in 1997.

...but is effectively an expanded (and therefore less solidly proletarian) Manchester Wythenshawe, a seat held for most of its formal existence by one of my political heroes (the great Alf Morris). Until 1974 the constituency crossed the Mersey to include Didsbury (!!!) and the seat was more political balanced: initially a Conservative marginal, Morris gained it for Labour in '64 and it basically turned into a safe seat overnight.

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Quite a lot of places have been called the largest council estate in Europe. Wythenshawe is certainly huge though: more a council-built New Town constructed over several decades than a council estate in the conventional sense of the term.

Anyway, Manchester Labour are very well organised.

[YL]

The BBC are reporting that this will be held on Thursday 13 February, which seems very soon but is not very surprising given the tight Labour selection schedule.

Update 21 Jan: the writ has indeed been moved for that date.

[YL]

2012 local election results by ward:

Manchester wards
Baguley: Lab 63%, UKIP 12%, Con 11%, TUSC 5%, LD 4%, Green 4%
Brooklands (Manc.): Lab 65%, Con 18%, UKIP 9%, Green 5%, LD 4%
Northenden: Lab 64%, LD 13%, Con 8%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%
Sharston: Lab 70%, UKIP 10%, Con 9%, LD 4%, Green 4%, TUSC 3%
Woodhouse Park: Lab 71%, UKIP 14%, Con 7%, Green 6%, LD 3%

Trafford wards
Brooklands (Traff.): Con 48%, LD 33%, Green 8%, LD 6%, Ind 4%
Priory: Lab 52%, Con 31%, LD 9%, Green 8%
Sale Moor: Lab 49%, Con 37%, Green 7%, LD 6%

Manchester component (i.e. "Wythenshawe") overall: Lab 66%, Con 11%, UKIP 10%, LD 6%, Green 5%, TUSC (two wards only) 1.5%
Trafford component (i.e. "Sale East") overall: Lab 44%, Con 39%, Green 8%, LD 7%, Ind (one ward only) 1.4%

Across the consitituency as a whole I get Lab 58%, Con 22%, LD 7%, Green 6%, UKIP 6%, TUSC 0.9%, Ind 0.5%.  But note that UKIP had no candidates in the Trafford wards.

[joevsimp]

anyone else fancy a prediction

I'll go for:

Lab 50%  +/- 5% (probably +)
Con 20% +/- 3%
UKIP 20% +/- 3%
LD 10% or possibly less

Don't anticipate the Greens or BNP bothering, 2 or 3% apiece if they do

if TUSC stand again they will increase their vote to a mighty 0.75% and hail it as a great success

I have heard whispers that Class War might run a candidate, two local potential candidates have declined, and Ian Bone may or may not stand

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://labourlist.org/2014/01/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-whos-in-the-running-to-be-labours-candidate/

Though a bit of a howler there: John Battle was a Leeds MP.

[YL]

http://labourlist.org/2014/01/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-whos-in-the-running-to-be-labours-candidate/

Though a bit of a howler there: John Battle was a Leeds MP.

And now the shortlist: http://labourlist.org/2014/01/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-the-shortlist/ (still without mentioning Leeds)

UKIP have selected their candidate, someone called John Bickley who apparently used to be a Labour supporter.

[Cassius]

UKIP have almost got a Lib-Dem style (or at least back in the day it was) thing going on, where they run as almost an 'old-style' Labour party in Labour seats, and an 'old-style' Conservative Party in Tory ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think they've ever run as an 'old style Labour Party' (whatever that would even mean) anywhere. They do have a couple of left-wing cranks in some areas, but that's not the same thing...

[doktorb]

Trafford vicar Daniel Critchlow has been chosen for the Conservatives.

[YL]

I don't think they've ever run as an 'old style Labour Party' (whatever that would even mean) anywhere. They do have a couple of left-wing cranks in some areas, but that's not the same thing...

I assume he's referring to the sort of voters UKIP are trying to appeal to, rather than actual policies.

In my experience it's a myth that the Lib Dems did that.  Given how much their campaigning focuses on getting tactical votes from supporters of parties who Can't Win Here, appearing to be too much like the party they're trying to beat would be counterproductive.

[doktorb]

Eddie O'Sullivan chosen by the BNP here.

[doktorb]

Mike Kane to defend for Labour - http://labourlist.org/2014/01/mike-kane-selected-as-labours-candidate-for-wythenshawe-and-sale-east/

[Hifly]

Mike Kane to defend for Labour - http://labourlist.org/2014/01/mike-kane-selected-as-labours-candidate-for-wythenshawe-and-sale-east/

I think he could be a social conservative !

Anyone who openly flouts being a "Catholic" on their twitter page probably is. Would be a very appropriate choice to fill Paul Goggins's boots.

[freefair]

According to Christian Socialist blogger and sometime Durham Progress gadfly David Lindsay, he is very much a traditionalist on cultural/moral matters. So yes, he upper left on the political spectrum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that Wythenshawe Labour not picking a Catholic would be an indication that the apocalypse is near.

[You kip if you want to...]

Another question about this by-election is surely whether the Libs will save their deposit? Especially given recent events.

[Harry Hayfield]

Has a date been set for the by-election? As a precaution I shall be watching BBC North West Tonight from Monday onwards.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I wouldn't necessarily bother.  North West Tonight isn't as good since Gordon Burns left.

[YL]

The task of trying to save the Lib Dem deposit has gone to Mary di Mauro, who represents Northenden ward (in the constituency) on Manchester City Council (term finishes 2014).  As mentioned above the Lib Dems only got 13% in that ward in 2012, and she's the only Lib Dem councillor left in the constituency.

Meanwhile someone whose real name is presumably not "Captain Chaplington-Smythe" is going to stand for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party under that name.