UK parliamentary by-elections 2014
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:26:58 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK parliamentary by-elections 2014
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 18
Author Topic: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014  (Read 36912 times)
doktorb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,072
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2014, 04:57:53 AM »

Tony Woodcock for the Greens. He's the chair of the Manchester branch..
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2014, 12:07:42 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2014, 12:14:28 PM by YL »

Candidate list now available via http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections_and_voting/4981/your_next_election

There are no candidates other than those already mentioned in the thread.  So:

John Bickley (UKIP)
Captain Chaplington-Smythe (OMRLP)
Daniel Critchlow (Con)
Mary di Mauro (Lib Dem)
Mike Kane (Lab)
Eddy O'Sullivan (BNP)
Nigel Woodcock (Green)

The Loony, Lib Dem and Labour candidates have Northenden addresses so presumably live in the constituency; the other four live in other constituencies, though none very far away.
Logged
doktorb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,072
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: January 29, 2014, 06:44:39 PM »

Nice and short ballot paper. They all used to be that size, you know...
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 06, 2014, 11:54:21 AM »

Ashcroft's done a poll, usual caveats apply.

LAB 61% (+17)
UKIP 15% (+12)
CON 14% (-12)
LD 5% (-17)

Surely a bit low for UKIP...
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 12, 2014, 02:52:16 PM »

This is tomorrow.  Given the weather and the lack of any doubt as to the result, expect a low turnout.

There seems to have been a fair amount of UKIP expectation management, including some rather ridiculous moaning about postal votes.  Some of the flavour can be gleaned from an article on the Telegraph website about UKIP and the by-election.  So perhaps the Ashcroft poll may be in the right ballpark.

I'll be impressed if Labour really do get 61%, though.
Logged
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 653
Romania


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2014, 04:44:07 PM »

The Holy Word is up.  Incidentally the weather in Greater Manchester is terrible at the moment; a huge storm is blowing through this evening with the type of high winds that damage buildings.  Hopefully this won't affect any polling stations.

http://blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-preview-wythenshawe-and.html
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 13, 2014, 01:13:46 PM »

The weather is better today (well, 30 or so miles east of the constituency, anyway).  I suspect the after-effects of the storm will still depress turnout a bit, though, and it wouldn't have been high anyway.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2014, 05:00:10 PM »

May the Twitter circus begin.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2014, 05:16:46 PM »

Liveblog:

labourlist.org/2014/02/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-by-election-liveblog/
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2014, 05:20:41 PM »

Judging by Twitter the last few days, I feel like the call must have gone out to get as many candidates/MPs/Shadow Cabinet down to Manchester as possible. One Nation and all that.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 13, 2014, 05:49:52 PM »

Always happens wi' by-elections.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 13, 2014, 06:18:04 PM »

All rumours pretty meaningless at this stage, of course, but a Labour majority of at least 25% it seems. Very varied turnout rumours.

But it's possible that they've not even really started counting yet.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 13, 2014, 07:43:54 PM »

Turnout is confirmed at a very low (but just above comic) 28%.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 13, 2014, 08:12:08 PM »

Labour reported to be leading by c. 30pts or so. Reports that the LibDems have requested a recount to save their deposit: that they are on 4.99% or so.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 13, 2014, 08:16:46 PM »


Their biggest fall since Manc Central. Some hilarious results heading their way in Manchester and Liverpool next year.

But they'll somehow, miraculously, hold onto their incumbents, right? Wink
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 13, 2014, 08:19:10 PM »

Nige' slamming postal votes and the short campaign on Sky.

But what he doesn't understand is that they just don't get how to campaign.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 13, 2014, 08:22:26 PM »

Says he's up for a pint and has been on benders that've been longer than the W&SE campaign.

Jesus.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 13, 2014, 08:40:54 PM »

Result within the next half hour.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 13, 2014, 09:26:33 PM »

LibDems twenty votes short of the magic 5%. Photo of a bundle-check to find said votes if they exist...

Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 13, 2014, 09:30:41 PM »

Labour hold
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 13, 2014, 09:35:25 PM »

Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 13, 2014, 09:44:08 PM »

Labour 13261 55.3%
UKIP      4301 17.9%
Con       3479 14.5%
LDem    1176  4.9%
Greenn   748 3.1%
BNP        708 2.9%
MRLP      288 1.2%

Labour maj. 8,960 (37.4%)

Butler Swing of -11.1%
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 13, 2014, 09:49:00 PM »

Biggest percentage majority ever for Labour here, including when the seat was just Wythenshawe.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: February 13, 2014, 09:54:22 PM »

If Labour across the country was as well organised as Manchester Labour, EdM would waltz into Downing Street with about 400 MPs next year.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2014, 08:51:20 AM »

The overall swing in by-elections in the 2005-2010 Parliament was scarily close to the swing in the general election. Anyone know what it is for this Parliament thus far?
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 18  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.04 seconds with 12 queries.