UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[ObserverIE]

Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

Will the Lib Dems be using deposit insurance next time round?

Looking at this result and at the general tenor of local by-election results that they've been having (at least in those seats where they're not a serious contender) the likely toll of lost deposits is likely to be well into three figures at GB£500 a pop.

[You kip if you want to...]

Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

Will the Lib Dems be using deposit insurance next time round?

Looking at this result and at the general tenor of local by-election results that they've been having (at least in those seats where they're not a serious contender) the likely toll of lost deposits is likely to be well into three figures at GB£500 a pop.

Easily. I'd imagine they'll still stand in all GB seats (ex. against the Speaker in Buckingham), they have to at least try and remain credible, but the next election will end up being a massive drain on funds for them through deposits.

If they want to go with their incumbents strategy they keep clinging on to, they'll have to figure out who they can afford to cut loose. I.E, what's the point in spending money to defend Leech in Manc' Withington, sitting on a majority of less than 2,000 in a seat with plenty of students, when there's Hazel Grove, an open seat, just down the road, where they'll need to hold the Tories back.

And even when this sort've worked in Eastleigh, they still lost more vote share than the Tories and went from 47% to 32%. They were very lucky that UKIP threw the kitchen sink at Eastleigh and the Tory candidate was a dud.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, context is good, so let's have a list of historical majorities for constituencies including Wythenshawe.

Manchester Wythenshawe was created for the 1950 election and as well as the eponymous estate it crossed the Mersey to include the middle class suburbs of Didsbury and Barlow Moor. As Wythenshawe grew, Barlow Moor was removed for the 1955 election and Didsbury for 1974.

1950: Con 12.1, 1951: Con 12.9, 1955: Con 5.7, 1959: Con 2.3, 1964: Labour 8.5, 1966: Labour 17.3, 1970: Labour 10.5, 1974Feb Labour 25.8, 1974Oct Labour 31.6, 1979: Labour 26.6, 1983 Labour 25.2, 1987 Labour 28.2, 1992 Labour 32.1

By this point Wythenshawe's population was falling (in common with the rest of the City of Manchester), and so for 1997 the present constituency was formed. Labour's notional 1992 majority was 14.6.

1997: Labour 33.0, 2001 Labour 36.0, 2005 30.0, 2010 18.6

[You kip if you want to...]

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

Of the Lib seats?

Redcar or Withington potentially?

[ObserverIE]

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

Rochdale?

[YL]

Patrick Mercer (Newark) has just announced that he's resigning his seat.  The BBC are speculating about Farage standing.

2010 result:
Patrick Mercer (Con) 53.9%
Ian Campbell (Lab) 22.3%
Pauline Jenkins (LD) 20.0%
Tom Irvine (UKIP) 3.8%

Labour won the seat in 1997, but lost it in 2001 in rather unfortunate circumstances, and AIUI the 2010 boundary changes made it harder for them to win.

Moderators: feel free to merge this with the Wythenshawe thread under a new title if you want to keep them together.

[doktorb]

I'm going for a Labour gain, but if the Kipper momentum is large enough, this could be fascinating

[doktorb]

Constituency map:

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65696.kml

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On current boundaries this ought to be a rock-solid Conservative seat: former versions of Newark included various industrial towns and villages (mostly on or just off the Nottinghamshire coalfield), the last of which were removed at the last boundary review. So now we're left with a prosperous semi-rural constituency based around a large country town.

But these are dire circumstances for a government defence. UKIP have not done well in the area, but they're a generic protest party as much as anything else, so...

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it too late for a May 22nd election? Anything after any UKIP success on the 22nd could scupper any chance of a Tory hold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few weeks after would be stupid, but after summer?

[You kip if you want to...]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

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[YL]

If Farage does stand here it would be the seventh different constituency he's stood in.  He hasn't stood more than once in the same place.

(If I had to guess, I'd say he won't.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

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That site rots the brain. Try to wean yourself off it.

[YL]

Farage isn't standing.

[afleitch]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

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That site rots the brain. Try to wean yourself off it.

It's woeful. Subsample heaven.

Farage won't stand because he can't afford to come second. His leadership isn't secure and won't be until the party translates apparent support into genuine, top tier political results. While I expect the UKIP to perhaps best 7-10% on a good day at the GE, I still think it's more likely that Caroline Lucas will be returned in Brighton and for the Lib Dems to hold on in scores of seats they should otherwise loose than for UKIP to return a single MP.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm hoping for a narrow Labour gain on c.30% of the vote based on a Tory-UKIP split....

Oh come on, it's not completely impossible and it would be utterly hilarious given what has already been said about this contest...

[doktorb]

Polling day is June 5th

[doktorb]

The Patriotic Socialist Party is to stand here (they say)

[doktorb]

Roger Helmer for UKIP, report The Sunday Times...

[YL]

Unsurprisingly, the Nottinghamshire-based joke candidate David Bishop of the Church of the Militant Elvis aka Bus Pass Elvis (who recently beat the Lib Dems in a Nottingham council by-election) says he's going to stand.

Also, UKIP have confirmed that Roger Helmer MEP will be their candidate.  He's been an MEP for the East Midlands since 1999, originally as a Tory before defecting to UKIP in 2012.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Helmer#Views makes for interesting reading:

- He once said that in date rape "the victim surely shares a part of the responsibility, if only for establishing reasonable expectations in her boyfriend's mind".

- He said that homophobia "does not exist", the word merely being "a propaganda device designed to denigrate and stigmatise those holding conventional opinions".

- He suggested that the Church of England had "abandoned religious faith entirely and taken up the religion of climate alarmism instead".  As for the Catholic Church, he said "it would be perfectly fair to describe it as systemically paedophile".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that this will be a most edifying and enlightening campaign.

[Cassius]

Why Helmer? What possible reason could there be to pick him? I mean, UKIP have a chance (a small one, but nonetheless, a chance) of winning this election, and yet they commit to a non-local candidate, who, at the same time, doesn't really seem to have much going for him. Don't get it.

[EPG]

He has his own resources as MEP and his views won't be as much of a hindrance in Newark as they are among internet progressives.