UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, plainly he's not going to resign and cause a by-election; that would entail the abstract concept of shame. And if that hasn't kicked in by now, it never will...

After all, this is someone accused of being a dirty old man who wears a beige mac in public.

[joevsimp]

Edith of Wessex possibly? But I'm not actually sure.

Edith Swan-Neck? Wife of King Harold II (>>>------>0 that Harold)

[You kip if you want to...]

Is there a scenario where the Libs finish 4th in any Portsmouth South by election?

Cons 1st, obviously.
UKIP 2nd, sort've obviously.
Lab 3rd, 25% of the population are in 'full-time education' here - students, they would've gone en masse for Hancock in 2010. Obviously this is blunted if it's a summer by-election.
Libs 4th, new candidate and vote split with...
...Hancock IND 5th.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Mike Hancock's political career is clearly very very over now.

He will presumably try to avoid resigning his seat and his (soon to be former?) party would not wish for a by-election, which would be a circus and a free-for-all.

The Kremlin must be very sad its pet shill turned out to be even more awful than suspected.

I don't think Hancock will run as an indie, unless his ego is incomprehensibly distorted.
 And as much as he deserves it he won't be forced to resign, so a by-election is unlikely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Kremlin must be very sad its pet shill turned out to be even more awful than suspected.

LOL yes. Must try harder!

[Citizen Hats]

Edith of Wessex possibly? But I'm not actually sure.

Edith Swan-Neck? Wife of King Harold II (>>>------>0 that Harold)

I believe she was his mistress

[Gary J]

Chris Rand has a website called Queen Edith's Online, which has something about the origin of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://queen-ediths.co.uk/why-is-this-area-of-cambridge-called-queen-ediths/

[YL]

Looks like we have a Clacton by-election, with Douglas Carswell (elected as Conservative) formally resigning to defend his seat in his new UKIP colours:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967904

[Harry Hayfield]

Douglas Carswell MP (elected for the Clacton constituency in 2005) has announced this morning that not only is he defecting from the Conservatives to the United Kingdom Independence Party, but he will resigning his Westminster seat in order to fight the Clacton by-election as UKIP (which as you can imagine has taken a lot of people by surprise!)

Clacton
Douglas Carswell, Con    22867   53.02%
Ivan Henderson, Lab    10799   25.04%
Michael Green, Lib Dem     5577   12.93%
Jim Taylor, BNP     1975    4.57%
Terry Allen, Tendring     1078    2.49%
Chris Southall, Green      535    1.24%
Christopher Humphrey, Ind      292    0.67%
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 12,068 (28%) on a swing of 9% from Labour to Conservative

This by-election is the first defection by-election since Mitcham and Morden in 1982 and could well be timed to cause maximum chaos for the Conservative Party Conference (due towards the end of September)

[Phony Moderate]

As much as I despise his politics, props to him for having the balls to immediately re-contest his seat. 

[Phony Moderate]

Ah, already heard the ignorant "Labour will win if anyone votes UKIP" line. That was swifter than usual.

[Harry Hayfield]

The latest rumours swirling around Westminster are:

Coalition MP's are being whipped to reject the writ being moved
Chancellor to oppose signing the stewardship document that allows an MP to resign
Writ to be moved so that the by-election happens during the Liberal Democrat conference

[Phony Moderate]

Hm, there are more than a few other Tory MPs with UKIP sympathies, and they would not be amused by those plans.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

[Harry Hayfield]

Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

You mean Dan Hannan the MEP (who cannot force a by-election due to the method of his election)?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ladbrooks by-election odds:

1/3 UKIP
5/2 Cons
10/1 Lab
100/1 LD

I wonder who else in the Tory ranks would be tempted to break ranks if all hell breaks loose. Michael Fabricant? Owen Patterson? Nadine Dories? Peter Bone? Dan Hannan?

You mean Dan Hannan the MEP (who cannot force a by-election due to the method of his election)?

Yes. I didn't mean to imply "cause by-elections", sorry, just some prominent Tories that might floor cross.

[swl]

So how does that work? Can his seat legally stay empty for almost one year?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Owen Patterson?

Paterson is an NFU hack, so, no.

[YL]

So how does that work? Can his seat legally stay empty for almost one year?

In principle, yes, but it's not very likely.

The first thing that needs to happen is for Carswell to be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead (which is the formal way he resigns his seat).  One of Harry's rumours above is that the Chancellor might refuse to do this; as MPs cannot actually resign (but have to be appointed to either that office or the Chiltern Hundreds) this would block the by-election, but it would unprecedented in modern times (not to say rather petty) for the Chancellor to refuse.

Then an MP needs to move the writ in the Commons to formally call the by-election.  Normally this is done by the defending party.  In this case I don't know whether that's considered to be the Conservatives or UKIP, but as the latter have no other MPs if it's them someone else will have to do it, as happens for Sinn Féin and independent vacancies.  (Anyway, another party can move it: the Lib Dems moved the writ for Oldham East & Saddleworth earlier in this parliament, where Labour were defending.)  There are cases where a party who didn't want a by-election wait a long time to move the writ, but the recent trend has been to move it quickly.  It would also be possible in principle for MPs to vote down the writ, as suggested by another one of Harry's rumours, but again this would be unprecedented in modern times.

All that said, I expect that Carswell will be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead within a few days, someone (probably a Tory) will move the writ within the next couple of weeks, and there will be a by-election in October.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is going to be a ridiculous circus of a by-election.

[Silent Hunter]

This is going to be a ridiculous circus of a by-election.

You can say that again.

[Gary J]

In the days when rotten boroughs abounded, the House of Commons sometimes noticed particularly outrageous examples and punished them by not issuing a writ for a by-election. This left a seat vacant for the rest of a Parliament. The disappointed electors were thus cheated of the opportunity to freely vote for the highest bidder, one more time. Nineteenth century spoilsports were sometimes so outraged that they disenfranchised the borough (see the sad history of Grampound in Cornwall, whose two seats were transferred to Yorkshire). It should be noted that the borough would still be represented as part of a county constituency, when its individual representation disappeared, but there would be fewer opportunities to make a corrupt profit.

However punishing a corrupt constituency is not really something to be done in a modern democracy. Nowadays it would just be a squalid party game to leave innocent electors without an MP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I'd be very surprised if the Government actually reacts in that way. Would be totally counterproductive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Potential mild amusement: UKIP already have a candidate selected for Clacton (some county councillor).

[Lurker]

Question: Are "real life" UKIPers in general as fanatical and stupid as they appear to be on the internet?