UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Diouf]

Potential mild amusement: UKIP already have a candidate selected for Clacton (some county councillor).

A feisty type

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-clacton-candidate-says-he-wont-stand-down-for-douglas

[Bacon King]

Potential mild amusement: UKIP already have a candidate selected for Clacton (some county councillor).

A feisty type

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-clacton-candidate-says-he-wont-stand-down-for-douglas

[Peter]

Haven't been in for a while, but thought I would offer some constitutional knowledge to the by-election questions.

I think it would be unthinkable that Osborne could refuse an appointment to Northstead Manor/Chiltern Hundred. He would undoubtedly be advised by government lawyers/civil servants/constitutional experts that he would set an awful precedent. The only reference I can find to a refusal to appoint was in 1842 - I have no idea why it was refused.

Parliament is in recess until 1 Sept, and then again from 12 Sept to 13 Oct for party conferences. This is important. Under the terms of the Recess Elections Act 1975 the Speaker is required to issue a writ for a by-election if petitioned by 2 MPs during a recess. This is rarely used, but is on the books: Should we make it to the conference recess period, expect 2 MPs to be found.

There is potential for fun and games if the writ is moved during 1-12 Sept. Technically the motion to move the writ can contain many details, including when the Speaker should actually issue his writ. In modern times, no directive of time is usually given and the Speaker does so within 24 hours. Historically this was not always the case, and the Speaker was directed to issue his writ on a particular date - this definitely was done in 1983 for the Cardiff NW when Conservatives delayed the issuance of the writ by a few weeks (in the end, the 1983 general election superceded the by-election).

Should the Tories wish to prevent a conference season recess writ (which could not be filibustered or voted down) and a delayed by-election, this would be their best bet - pass a writ quickly in September with some date long in the future. By convention the writ is issued within 3 months of the vacancy, so technically they could direct the Speaker to issue at the end of November with a by-election date sometime in the New Year and be considered to be completely within the existing conventions.

Whilst constitutionally permissible, politically this would be crazy - UKIP would exploit it massively in the media and would tar the existing political classes as totally disconnected and operating within their own rules with no regard for the constituents who were unrepresented.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, he can't act like this is Canada.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wouldn't shock me if they went for the Thursday of Labour conference. It'd nip any Labour bounce in the bud.

[Harry Hayfield]

Wouldn't shock me if they went for the Thursday of Labour conference. It'd nip any Labour bounce in the bud.

Unless Labour gained Clacton that is?

[You kip if you want to...]

Wouldn't shock me if they went for the Thursday of Labour conference. It'd nip any Labour bounce in the bud.

Unless Labour gained Clacton that is?

Everyone's pretty sure we can count that out though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only people who care about that kind of thing are Sunday newspaper columnists. Admittedly this means that it can't be ruled out entirely.

And, no, there's no chance of a Labour gain. Clacton was mostly in the old Harwich constituency that voted Labour in 1997 and 2001... but these were basically flukes, even for those elections.

[You kip if you want to...]

The latest rumours swirling around Westminster are:

Coalition MP's are being whipped to reject the writ being moved
Chancellor to oppose signing the stewardship document that allows an MP to resign
Writ to be moved so that the by-election happens during the Liberal Democrat conference

http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/historic_moments/newsid_8185000/8185773.stm

Afraid. Frightened. Frit.

[joevsimp]

do the tories even need to banjax the Lib Dems any more, surely they'd do much more proportional damage to labour if those were the kind of shenanigans they're willing to stoop to

anyway, Carswell won Harwich in 2005 with a majority of 900 votes, the boundary change for the 2010 election notionally increased that to 4,000, and then the election result was a 12,000 vote majority (with no UKIP candidate) so Labour being in the equation isn't completely out of the equation, However knowing Essex I'd be surprised if they manage to increase their vote share though

[Phony Moderate]

It would appear that Labour held the seat from 1997-2005 for two main reasons: 1. 9.2% Referendum Party share in 1997 (surely close to being the highest in the country), 2. Lib Dem voters fleeing to Labour in droves; the Lib Dem vote in 2005 was half of what it was in 1992.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour's candidate was also a big factor; Ivan Henderson is a beloved figure in Harwich. Which was removed from the seat for the 2010 election. Conservative MP (and candidate in 2001) was a parachuted Scot mostly notable for a failed attempt at chicken running in 1983.

[YL]

According to UKIPologists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford (not that one), Clacton has the most UKIP-friendly demographics of any seat in the entire country.

In fact, Goodwin made a blog post in May where he says Carswell asked him where Clacton was on the list.  I wonder what Carswell was actually thinking about at the time...

[YL]

The latest rumours swirling around Westminster are:

Coalition MP's are being whipped to reject the writ being moved
Chancellor to oppose signing the stewardship document that allows an MP to resign
Writ to be moved so that the by-election happens during the Liberal Democrat conference

"The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed John Douglas Wilson Carswell to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead."

[joevsimp]

do the actually still get their nominal pound for that office?

[EPG]

Clacton wasn't being spoken about as a UKIP target before now, despite this demography, which suggests that UKIP's public targets are chosen to punish Conservative MPs less opposed to the EU than Douglas Carswell.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to UKIPologists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford (not that one),

You forgot to add 'champion bullsh!t merchants'.

[Phony Moderate]

Survation poll...brace yourselves.

UKIP - 64% (+64)
Tories - 20% (-33)
Labour - 13% (-12)
Lib Dems - 2% (-11)
Others - 1% (-8)

Several records would fall on that.

[EPG]

Survation poll...brace yourselves.

UKIP - 64% (+64)
Tories - 20% (-33)
Labour - 13% (-12)
Lib Dems - 2% (-11)
Others - 1% (-8)

Several records would fall on that.

Terrible news for Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford.

[Vosem]

9.2% Referendum Party share in 1997 (surely close to being the highest in the country)

By Wikipedia, Harwich was the Referendum Party's best result anywhere in 1997.

[Cassius]

According to UKIPologists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford (not that one),

You forgot to add 'champion bullsh!t merchants'.

I'm only vaguely familiar with them; why in particular are they bullsh*tters? Sensationalising UKIP in order to sell their book?

[You kip if you want to...]

Survation poll...brace yourselves.

UKIP - 64% (+64)
Tories - 20% (-33)
Labour - 13% (-12)
Lib Dems - 2% (-11)
Others - 1% (-8)

Several records would fall on that.

The Tories were going into this the underdogs anyway and a loss of any kind would be hard to manage for them, especially for the leadership... but a loss of this scale is something much, much worse (and of course, Labour and the LDs won't put in anything much beyond actually standing a candidate, so the story won't be them).

A majority like that for Carswell would be greater than that of any current Tory MP and even for Labour, you have to start looking to Glasgow and Merseyside to find majorities like this poll suggests.

[YL]

Ashcroft poll for Clacton:
UKIP 56
Con 24
Lab 16
LD 2
(so a similar message to the Survation poll but not quite as extreme)

The writ is apparently going to be moved today for the by-election to be on 9 October.

[doktorb]

Ashcroft poll for Clacton:
UKIP 56
Con 24
Lab 16
LD 2
(so a similar message to the Survation poll but not quite as extreme)

The writ is apparently going to be moved today for the by-election to be on 9 October.

Which is David Cameron's birthday.

[Phony Moderate]

So the combined 'right-wing' vote may well be in the 80s...if these polls are accurate then we are looking at Bradford West in reverse.