UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Hash]

In contrast in Canada our version of the Labour Party - the NDP - is 100% pro-choice and you are not allowed to be a candidate (let alone sit in caucus) unless you pledge to support abortion rights in any parliamentary vote. The Liberals used to be more divided but now their leader Justin Trudeau has also said that no one will be allowed to run in the next election unless they support abortion rights - though a handful of incumbent pro-life Liberal MPs will be "grandfathered" and allowed to continue to be anti-choice.

The silver lining in this is that the NDP has never, and will never form government, so I guess they can do what they want.

Saying that a party as strong as NDP will never form a government is absurd. The Grits may very well collapse at some point leaving NDP as one of the pillars of a two party system. Just because something isn't going to happen in the immediate future doesn't mean its never going to happen.

Especially in a country like Canada!

[EPG]

Or the Conservatives could collapse, which is perhaps more likely.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think the difference between the NDP and UK Labour is that there's historically been large Catholic sections of their voting coalition. Many Labour MPs represent very socially conservative parts of the country as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An important thing to note here is that abortion was legalised via a private members bill and the legislation is a deliberate practical compromise that leaves everyone equally unhappy. Partly for reasons of obvious electoral self-interest there has always been a strong desire amongst mainstream parties to avoid issues like that becoming partisan ones.

Anyway, here's the Grauniad obit of Dobbin.

[YL]

Back on topic, the Tory "primary" in Clacton is tonight.  There are only two candidates (perhaps it wasn't the most attractive vacancy...) who will have a debate followed by a vote.

They selected Giles Watling.  An actor and Tory councillor for Frinton.

[EPG]

I think it's slightly generous to describe English abortion law as an equanimous compromise. In practice, it's difficult to distinguish from other European countries with liberal abortion regimes, and pro-life people are clearly unhappier about it than pro-choice people, as is clear from the parliamentary debates, which are usually about tightening the law and not loosening it. Labour's pro-life tendency is related to the bloc of Irish and Irish-British, and other Catholics, which until the Anglican reforms of the last few decades was much stronger in the Labour parliamentary party than the Conservatives, and as Sibboleth mentioned these debates and bills have been arranged more by parliamentarians than by voters' giving mandates to parties.

[YL]

A tribute to Jim Dobbin on LabourList, by someone who worked for him.

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Heywood & Middleton:

- Miriam O'Reilly, former presenter of BBC Countryfile, who successfully sued the BBC for age discrimination when removed from it.  Twitter profile says "Irish. Award winning Journalist. Writer. Campaigner. Fought ageism at the BBC and won."

- Kailash Chand, doctor and deputy chair of the BMA, campaigner against the coalition's health "reforms", from Tameside.  Twitter profile says "Deputy chair of BMA. Passionate supporter of the NHS. Write regularly for Society Guardian & Tribune. I tweet on personal capacity."

- Liz McInnes, Rossendale councillor.  Twitter profile says "Healthcare scientist and union rep for Unite, Labour Councillor for Longholme Ward, Rossendale Council, mum to Sam, sister to many and mad housewife."

- Byron Taylor, Basildon (!) councillor.  Twitter profile says "Trade unionist & political campaigner."

[YL]

Liz McInnes won the Labour selection for Heywood & Middleton.  Possibly the most local to the constituency of those on the shortlist, though I confess that when I think of Rossendale and the word "local" the League of Gentlemen come to mind.

Greens and Tories have also selected today.  UKIP selected their Wythenshawe candidate, John Bickley, a few days ago.  I don't know about the Lib Dems, but nominations close tomorrow so I suspect they have too.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Liz McInnes won the Labour selection for Heywood & Middleton.  Possibly the most local to the constituency of those on the shortlist, though I confess that when I think of Rossendale and the word "local" the League of Gentlemen come to mind.

Her ward is western Rawtenstall, which isn't too bad.  The real League of Gentlemen area in Rossendale is Bacup (in fact the real League decided against filming in Bacup because it was too scary).

[YL]

Bacup is the place I was thinking of...

Just five candidates for Heywood & Middleton:
John Bickley (UKIP)
Iain Gartside (Con)
Abi Jackson (Green)
Liz McInnes (Lab)
Anthony Smith (Lib Dem)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bacup is the place I was thinking of...

Just five candidates for Heywood & Middleton:
John Bickley (UKIP)
Iain Gartside (Con)
Abi Jackson (Green)
Liz McInnes (Lab)
Anthony Smith (Lib Dem)

And for reference, in 2010 this was the (rounded) results:

Labour - 40
Tory - 27
Lib Dem - 23
BNP - 7
UKIP - 3

After a healthy cannibalisation of the two coalition parties, we might end up with a result like this: (warning of terrible and doubtless incorrect prediction coming)

Labour 50%
UKIP 30%
Conservative 13%
Lib Dem 4%
Green 3%

[YL]

As for Clacton, Tendring council haven't put an official list on their website yet, but the media are reporting that there are 8 candidates:

Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
Andy Graham (Lib Dem)
Alan Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Charlotte Rose (Ind)
Bruce Sizer (Ind)
Chris Southall (Green)
Giles Watling (Con)
Tim Young (Lab)

A Scottish Jacobite Party (!) candidate had his nomination rejected for some reason.  The absurd "Patriotic Socialist Party" had supposedly selected a candidate (the one who got two votes in a recent council by-election) but he's missing from the above list.

[ObserverIE]

Rochester and Strood

[Harry Hayfield]

Result in 2010
Mark Reckless (Con) 23,604 (49% +6% on notional 2005)
Teresa Murray (Lab) 13,651 (28% -13% on notional 2005)
Geoffrey Juby (Lib Dem) 7,800 (16% +4% on notional 2005)
Ron Sands (Eng Dems) 2,182 (5% +5% on notional 2005)
Simon Marchant (Green) 734 (2%, no candidate in 2005)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 9,953 (21%) on a notional swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative

Medway Local Area Count Result : European Elections 2014
United Kingdom Independence Party 27,265 (42% +20% on 2009)
Conservatives 15,043 (23% -8% on 2009)
Labour 12,448 (19% +4% on 2009)
Green 3,684 (6% -2% on 2009)
Liberal Democrats 2,420 (4% -5% on 2009)
British National Party 761 (1% -7% on 2009)
Other Parties 3,480 (5% -3% on 2009)
UKIP GAIN from Con on a swing of 14% from Con to UKIP

[YL]

How similar is this seat to the Medway seat which Bob Marshall-Andrews narrowly held for Labour in 2005 (after conceding defeat)?  There must have been some changes if it was already notionally Tory, but it seems to have been very similar.

There haven't been any local elections to Medway council since 2011, and back then UKIP didn't have many candidates in the area, but that Euro result looks good for them.  (Anyone have any idea what the patterns are likely to be like within the council area?)

Trivia: Rochester is the only place in England to have lost city status.

[Harry Hayfield]

How similar is this seat to the Medway seat which Bob Marshall-Andrews narrowly held for Labour in 2005 (after conceding defeat)?  There must have been some changes if it was already notionally Tory, but it seems to have been very similar.

There haven't been any local elections to Medway council since 2011, and back then UKIP didn't have many candidates in the area, but that Euro result looks good for them.  (Anyone have any idea what the patterns are likely to be like within the council area?)

Trivia: Rochester is the only place in England to have lost city status.

According to UK-Elect (which takes the same data from the Press Association) the similarity is 15.10% (i.e nothing like the old Medway)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mark who?

Anyway, is he resigning his seat to stand in his new colours or just seeking re-election in them?

How similar is this seat to the Medway seat which Bob Marshall-Andrews narrowly held for Labour in 2005 (after conceding defeat)?  There must have been some changes if it was already notionally Tory, but it seems to have been very similar.

Some minor changes, but it's essentially the same constituency.

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Due to an administrative cock up when Medway UA was created. Hilarious. It's also where The Mystery of Edwin Drood is set.

[njwes]

Ron Sands (Eng Dems) 2,182 (5% +5% on notional 2005)

That must be one of their best parliamentary results ever.

Any more Conservative backbenchers suspected to defect anytime soon?

[YL]

Any more Conservative backbenchers suspected to defect anytime soon?

There are rumours.  Names I've seen mentioned include Philip Hollobone (Kettering) and Chris Kelly (Dudley South).  Kelly recently announced he was retiring at the election and made a statement which sounded rather supportive of Carswell.

It should, however, be noted that rumours of defections don't have a very strong track record.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I have seen some really dumb predictions of defectors based on vague hearsay. The Mirror had a claim that my Southgate MP is thinking of leaving. If he does all power to him, but Enfield Southgate would be a dreadful place to run as UKIP for like a million reasons.

[YL]

Banksy artwork in Clacton, removed by the local council, apparently because someone complained it was racist:


http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2014/oct/01/banksy-mural-clacton-racist

[politicus]

Banksy artwork in Clacton, removed by the local council, apparently because someone complained it was racist:


http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2014/oct/01/banksy-mural-clacton-racist

Ridiculous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation poll for the Scum of Heywood & Middleton:

Labour 50, UKIP 31, Con 13, LDem 4

[Zanas]

Survation poll for the Scum of Heywood & Middleton:

Labour 50, UKIP 31, Con 13, LDem 4

You know something is off when Al is posting constituency polling data...