UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[DL]

Let's be clear, Labour is in no position to openly help anyone other than itself in Rochester...but I'm also saying that this being a byelection - there is no "motive" whatsoever for a Labour voter to vote Tory to save the seat from going Ukip - on the contrary if you wanted to vote tactically at all - either stick with Labour or vote UKIP in the byelection just for the sake of tossing a hand grenade at the Tories.

[EPG]

The thing about Clacton when it was called Harwich was that it included Harwich; i.e. a ferry port. The Labour candidate also happened to be a man with what almost amounted (and still amounts) to a personality cult in Harwich town. It was one of the more bewildering gains of '97, which says everything.

Many of which were seaside towns (Hastings, Hove). Add on the others like Blackpool, and it suggests that something happened in these towns, some of which now seem prone to UKIP, but as a non-Britisher I haven't a clue what.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there are seaside resorts and then there are seaside resorts. Clacton is a retirement resort (the proportion of people over 65 in the constituency is twice the English average) and such places have generally remained within the Tory fold, even when they've become a little shabby around the edges. Seaside resorts of the other type have tended to become genuinely competitive - and some (e.g. Rhyl) have turned into Labour strongholds - as social trends have destroyed their former economic prosperity. There was also a government policy in the 80s of dispersing benefit claimants to seaside resorts.

[politicus]

There was also a government policy in the 80s of dispersing benefit claimants to seaside resorts.

Sounds odd. Why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cheap accommodation (boarding houses and so on).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Clacton and Heywood & Middleton by-elections are today. I'm somewhat leery wrt the accuracy of constituency polling (way too many cases of them being miles off) but both seats have been polled twice. Both Clacton polls have shown huge leads for Carswell,* and both Heywood & Middleton polls have shown large leads for Labour. One thing to bear in mind (and I mention this only because there will be an absolute deluge of fevered comment tomorrow and over the weekend; actually it's already started) is that 'sensational' by-elections rarely have much of a long-term impact.

_{*Though it may be useful to note that the last one of these was conducted over a month ago.}

[Lief 🗽]

But "sensational" by-elections also rarely involve a rising third party winning their first seat in Parliament by a landslide, no?

[You kip if you want to...]

But "sensational" by-elections also rarely involve a rising third party winning their first seat in Parliament by a landslide, no?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_West_by-election,_2012

And for a none sarcastic response, I point to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crosby_by-election,_1981

Although yes, a UKIP win will be something pretty big.

[YL]

At this point any result other than a UKIP win in Clacton and a Labour win in Heywood & Middleton would indicate an impressive feat of expectation management by the winner.

The margin in Clacton will be of interest: if it's of the scale suggested by the Survation poll, then that will be quite impressive; if it's much smaller, then that might suggest that UKIP are still struggling to do well enough to actually win seats under FPTP in any sort of normal circumstances. 

(At the moment, in the General Election I'm expecting them to hold Clacton, take South Thanet and quite probably also take Boston & Skegness, though I might change my mind on that one if the local party select Neil Hamilton as candidate; there are also a few other seats where I think they have a chance.  But if they only win fairly narrowly tonight I might go back to thinking they could easily flop and not win anywhere at all.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But "sensational" by-elections also rarely involve a rising third party winning their first seat in Parliament by a landslide, no?

Well a party can only ever win its first seat once. But that sort of thing has happened a couple of times, sure. There have also been innumerable massive Liberal by-election wins that led precisely nowhere (in many cases the triumphant Liberal/LibDem didn't even hold the seat at the next General Election).

And there there are all the various near-upsets that have often been treated as 'sensational'. And sometimes even results that weren't genuinely close but were a lot closer than normal have been treated (somewhat bizarrely) as such. Who now remembers the 1989 Richmond by-election where William Hague was run shockingly close by the continuity SDP?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The margin in Clacton will be of interest: if it's of the scale suggested by the Survation poll, then that will be quite impressive; if it's much smaller, then that might suggest that UKIP are still struggling to do well enough to actually win seats under FPTP in any sort of normal circumstances. 

This is a fair comment I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Carswell's performance will also be some kind of indicator for Reckless when the end of the pier show moves to a swampy estuary in Kent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls closed half an hour ago. As per usual I will warn you all about trusting very early rumours.

[YL]

According to the Guardian the Clacton result is expected between 1.30 and 3am, and Heywood & Middleton at about 2am.  But they then do say that (as we know) these times are often unreliable.

I'm not seeing any suggestions of unexpected winners in either, even on Twitter.

[YL]

The "All That's Left" blog has constituency profiles: Heywood & Middleton and Clacton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indications (and these are still quite early so be warned) are of a UKIP majority of maybe as high as 10,000 in Clacton, and of a Labour majority in the general region of 3,000 to 2,000 in Heywood & Middleton. Turnout in the latter is confirmed as an awful 36%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are saying that they're going to win Heywood & Middleton and that their vote percentage will be up on 2010 and what they polled at the 2014 locals. UKIP are hoping for a result in the mid 30s. Tory vote rumoured to have evaporated.

[YL]

Labour are saying that they're going to win Heywood & Middleton and that their vote percentage will be up on 2010 and what they polled at the 2014 locals. UKIP are hoping for a result in the mid 30s. Tory vote rumoured to have evaporated.

Suggestions that the Tories might be as low as 10%, and there doesn't seem to be much hope for the Lib Dem deposit.  It seems as if UKIP are squeezing the anti-Labour vote.

[YL]

... and the Guardian are saying that Labour are saying that the Tories are on about 20% in Clacton, and that the Lib Dems have lost their deposit there too (no surprise I think).

NB 20% is what Survation said.

Edit: they've now amended that to roughly U 60%, C 24%, Lab 12%

[Phony Moderate]

... and the Guardian are saying that Labour are saying that the Tories are on about 20% in Clacton, and that the Lib Dems have lost their deposit there too (no surprise I think).

NB 20% is what Survation said.

Edit: they've now amended that to roughly U 60%, C 24%, Lab 12%

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farage has conceded defeat on behalf of his candidate (why does he do this?) wrt Heywood & Middleton.

[YL]

51% turnout in Clacton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently a recount in Heywood & Middleton. urgh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its been suggested that it's a bundle check instead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, a full recount. Apparently the majority was c.600 or so; that would normally be too high for a proper recount, so this is a bit weird.