UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[EPG]

There is a long history of "third parties" doing very well in byelections in the UK on the strength of representing a "protest vote". If the Tories had won a majority in 2010 and the Lib Dems had been sitting in opposition for the last 4 years in all likelhood the Lib Dems would be polling in the mid 20s and would be easily winning byelections in strongly Conservative seats like this one.

If the Tories had won a majority, I could see an 'anti-establishment, we still agree with Nick' narrative leading to an LD surge, rather than UKIP.

We can only really rely on observations of similar situations to judge alt-history scenarios. Across Europe, the parties that benefit from such narratives are typically not like the Lib Dems and are more like Ukip, because crises seem to beget not moderation but rancour. The Nick debate bounce was already dissolving by the time of the last general election, and they were landing back on the 16% or so that they scored in polls pre-election. Given the negative feelings about immigration and the EU, it was more likely that Ukip or god help us the BNP would have benefitted. I know some here think Ukip supporters rationalise that support by adopting negative views on immigration and the EU, but I think it's more credible that Ukip wins the small minority of voters who felt unrepresented by the broadly positive stances of the formerly "big three" parties on those topics.

[You kip if you want to...]

Once UKIP gain Rochester (I mean, it's gonna happen, let's be honest), they'll just about have received more votes than the Tories in by-elections during this parliament.

They're ~3,000 behind at the moment.

[YL]

There is a fourth poll for Rochester & Strood, this time from Ashcroft.  The figures are UKIP 44 Con 32 Lab 17 LD 1 Others 5.  (The Greens are on 4 before the don't know adjustments, but aren't distinguished from Others in the headline figures.  The don't know adjustments reduce Reckless's lead from 16 to 12 points.)

There is also a question about General Election voting intention, which appears to give the Tories a very slight lead.  This doesn't particularly surprise me; I suspect that the Tories will regain this seat (but not Clacton) next May.

[doktorb]

Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

[You kip if you want to...]

Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

Grit bins full of salt obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more go.

Sort've getting towards to point now where a by-election can be kicked into the long grass.

[DL]

There is no rule that says that MPs that switch parties have to quit and run in a byelection (maybe there should be - but there isn't) - in fact in the vast majority of cases floor-crossers do NOT resign and trigger a byelection, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, there's no rule and yes most defectors don't resign their seats and stand under new colours. UKIP have done this to gain publicity.

[YL]

Before Carswell the last defector to resign and trigger a by-election was Bruce Douglas-Mann, one of the Labour MPs who defected to the SDP.  (None of the other SDP defectors did.)  Unfortunately for him his by-election was held in June 1982, near the end of the Falklands War, and he lost his seat to the Tories.

The number of MPs who defected between Douglas-Mann and Carswell is in double figures.  Many of them, of course, were in seats which were hopeless for their new parties, e.g. Shaun Woodward, Cameron's predecessor as MP for Witney, who joined Labour in 1999.  The most extreme case would be Andrew Hunter, who was elected as a Tory but tried to make a career in Northern Ireland politics and ended up representing Basingstoke for the DUP for a brief period.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

Yeah, the Express is effectively the closest thing UKIP has to an in-house propaganda sheet now.

Supposedly, the next two candidates to defect are the MP's for Bournemouth West, and Basildon and Billericay. Apparently they've been spotted chatting to Farage in a pub, or something silly like that. Of course, the peril for UKIP is that the more Tory headbanger MP's they attract; the more tricky their much-vaunted "crossover support" for "disenchanted Labour" voters becomes.


The Mirror also had a "helpful" graphic of all the most likely Tories to defect based on how much they rebelled against party line. Seeing as Zac Goldsmith was fourth, they possibly should have established a less crude way to predict defectees...

[joevsimp]

Supposedly, the next two candidates to defect are the MP's for Bournemouth West, and Basildon and Billericay. Apparently they've been spotted chatting to Farage in a pub, or something silly like that. Of course, the peril for UKIP is that the more Tory headbanger MP's they attract; the more tricky their much-vaunted "crossover support" for "disenchanted Labour" voters becomes.


The Mirror also had a "helpful" graphic of all the most likely Tories to defect based on how much they rebelled against party line. Seeing as Zac Goldsmith was fourth, they possibly should have established a less crude way to predict defectees...

where did they even get that from? according to this list Goldsmith is the 12th most rebellious tory
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mps.php?sort=rebellions
its not as if its not possible for someone adequately caffeinated to extract and collate the data from theyworkforyou on conservative MPs' voting record purely about Europe is it?

anyway, Basildon and Billericay is probably winnable for UKIP, either if the current MP defects or for whoever's up against him in May.  Bournmouth I don't know so much about but electionforecast.co.uk are predicting them 14%, not even overtaking the LibDems

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

who knows? the Mirror works in mysterious ways...

I don't see why they's count out Bournemouth so easily. UKIP easily saved their deposits last time around in both constituencies and Bournemouth's other constutuency gave a horrendously high vote to the awfully, tremendously racist "New Britain" back in the 70's.

[adma]

anyway, Basildon and Billericay is probably winnable for UKIP, either if the current MP defects or for whoever's up against him in May. 

Just the very *name* "Basildon and Billericay" screams out UKIP targetability.

[joevsimp]

oi oi, choose your next words about my native county, carefully...

although yes, I wouldn't be surprised if ukip went and won all of the seats around the essex coast, plus Harlow and Romford for good measure

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Incidentally, Billericay's 90's era "maverick" MP Teresa Gorman is now a UKIP supporter. The Billericay constituency has seen some ... interesting characters in its time, so a UKIP defectee would be be par for the course.

I wonder if any ministers could fall to a surprise UKIP surge.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of surges, the one UKIP had in the polls following the last by-elections has already pretty much dissipated. It will, however, surely return this very weekend (but then how long will it last I wonder?)

[joevsimp]

Incidentally, Billericay's 90's era "maverick" MP Teresa Gorman is now a UKIP supporter. The Billericay constituency has seen some ... interesting characters in its time, so a UKIP defectee would be be par for the course.

I wonder if any ministers could fall to a surprise UKIP surge.

they've been making some interesting claims about Ed M's seat in Donny (can't remember if it's North or Central)

Eric Pickles is down the road in Brentwood, but I think that's one of the less likely seats in Essex to go mauve

IDS is in Tebbit's old seat, Chingford, where UKIP will most likely come a strong second but he's not going anywhere this time around

remembering how disastrous the LibDems decapitation strategy in 2001 was I'm not expecting anything like that, Ukip will be much better off targeting their most winnable seats regardless of who the MP is

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By 'interesting' you mean 'completely delusional'?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Reckless living up to his name, to the consternation of UKIP HQ.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Incidentally, Billericay's 90's era "maverick" MP Teresa Gorman is now a UKIP supporter. The Billericay constituency has seen some ... interesting characters in its time, so a UKIP defectee would be be par for the course.

I wonder if any ministers could fall to a surprise UKIP surge.

they've been making some interesting claims about Ed M's seat in Donny (can't remember if it's North or Central)

Eric Pickles is down the road in Brentwood, but I think that's one of the less likely seats in Essex to go mauve

IDS is in Tebbit's old seat, Chingford, where UKIP will most likely come a strong second but he's not going anywhere this time around

remembering how disastrous the LibDems decapitation strategy in 2001 was I'm not expecting anything like that, Ukip will be much better off targeting their most winnable seats regardless of who the MP is

Miliband's seat is Doncaster North, I've got family there. From what I know, UKIP may poll strongly in areas like Bentley, but I don't think they'll topple Labour there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

English Democrats + UKIP + BNP last time in Doncaster North was over 16%. Assuming UKIP collects all that and more, I'm sure they'll get second; and Ed won't get the traditional "new leader boost".

Doncaster and South Yorkshire is the base of the Eng Dems. Will UKIP completely bust them, I wonder?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Assuming UKIP collects all that and more, I'm sure they'll get second; and Ed won't get the traditional "new leader boost".

The first thing does not automatically imply the second thing, actually. Of course the election is still quite a while away and who knows how things will look by then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Counting well underway for what it's worth. Rumoured to be UKIP 43, Con 35, Labour 17 or so, which is in line with expectations but not earlier rumours from the count. We shall soon find out the truth. LibDems rumoured to have finished behind a joke candidate.

[Talleyrand]

From the Guardian:

The BBC’s Chris Mason says he’s heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weirdly long count even for a by-election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Weirdly long count even for a by-election.

Probably MI5 stuffing the ballots