UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[You kip if you want to...]

Caused by the death of Paul Goggins who had been the Member of Parliament for this seat since its creation in 1997.

A constituency on the border of Greater Manchester and Chester, Wythenshawe & Sale East is probably most notable for having the largest council estate estate in Europe and, of course, Manchester airport. There is quite a bit've middle class suburbia in the Sale end of the constituency.

Result in 2010


Local elections results from 2012 for the main four parties compared to their results from the locals in 2010
Labour 56.9% (+14.6%)
Tory 22.4% (-2.4%)
Liberal 6.6% (-17.6%)
UKIP 6.3% (+3.3%)

Of the 24 councillors in the constituency, 20 are Labour, 3 are Tories and there's 1 Liberal Democrat.

[You kip if you want to...]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

They won't pick their 2010 candidate, surely and I can't see Paul Nuttall connecting here, especially if Labour go for a local.

Applications for Labour opened Saturday morning and close tomorrow with shortlisting on Wednesday, they're not wasting any time. I think they want a good result here after a pretty poor showing to UKIP in South Shields.

[You kip if you want to...]

Should be a Labour hold.

UKIP still haven't chosen their candidate I believe. At 2010, they had an 18-19 year old local guy run and he wants to be their candidate for the by-election. Although I read that Paul Nuttall wants to be their candidate here too.

They won't pick their 2010 candidate, surely and I can't see Paul Nuttall connecting here, especially if Labour go for a local.

Applications for Labour opened Saturday morning and close tomorrow with shortlisting on Wednesday, they're not wasting any time. I think they want a good result here after a pretty poor showing to UKIP in South Shields.

Indeed. Do we know if the by-election will be held before the Euros? If so, a solid result for Labour will give them some good headlines building up to the May elections, same of course, with UKIP.

Leaving it until May wouldn't really make sense. Labour probably wants to get it out the way for some good headlines and to stop any UKIP support building in a long campaign. Maybe early March?

[You kip if you want to...]

Another question about this by-election is surely whether the Libs will save their deposit? Especially given recent events.

[You kip if you want to...]

Ashcroft's done a poll, usual caveats apply.

LAB 61% (+17)
UKIP 15% (+12)
CON 14% (-12)
LD 5% (-17)

Surely a bit low for UKIP...

[You kip if you want to...]

Judging by Twitter the last few days, I feel like the call must have gone out to get as many candidates/MPs/Shadow Cabinet down to Manchester as possible. One Nation and all that.

[You kip if you want to...]

4.99% or so.

Their biggest fall since Manc Central. Some hilarious results heading their way in Manchester and Liverpool next year.

But they'll somehow, miraculously, hold onto their incumbents, right?

[You kip if you want to...]

Nige' slamming postal votes and the short campaign on Sky.

But what he doesn't understand is that they just don't get how to campaign.

[You kip if you want to...]

Says he's up for a pint and has been on benders that've been longer than the W&SE campaign.

Jesus.

[You kip if you want to...]

Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

[You kip if you want to...]

If Labour across the country was as well organised as Manchester Labour, EdM would waltz into Downing Street with about 400 MPs next year.

[You kip if you want to...]

Libs hold onto just 14% of their 2010 votes.

Will the Lib Dems be using deposit insurance next time round?

Looking at this result and at the general tenor of local by-election results that they've been having (at least in those seats where they're not a serious contender) the likely toll of lost deposits is likely to be well into three figures at GB£500 a pop.

Easily. I'd imagine they'll still stand in all GB seats (ex. against the Speaker in Buckingham), they have to at least try and remain credible, but the next election will end up being a massive drain on funds for them through deposits.

If they want to go with their incumbents strategy they keep clinging on to, they'll have to figure out who they can afford to cut loose. I.E, what's the point in spending money to defend Leech in Manc' Withington, sitting on a majority of less than 2,000 in a seat with plenty of students, when there's Hazel Grove, an open seat, just down the road, where they'll need to hold the Tories back.

And even when this sort've worked in Eastleigh, they still lost more vote share than the Tories and went from 47% to 32%. They were very lucky that UKIP threw the kitchen sink at Eastleigh and the Tory candidate was a dud.

[You kip if you want to...]

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

Of the Lib seats?

Redcar or Withington potentially?

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it too late for a May 22nd election? Anything after any UKIP success on the 22nd could scupper any chance of a Tory hold.

[You kip if you want to...]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[You kip if you want to...]

As the old joke goes though, the only difference between a UKIP supporter and a BNP supporter is a few too many pints.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

[You kip if you want to...]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

It would be the first Tory hold in a by-election while in government since 1989. Actually holding it is more out of the ordinary.

And look what happened to them after their last string of by-election defenses when they were last in government...

[You kip if you want to...]

Imagine a crackpot like Helmer becoming UKIP's highest elected representative though.

Nigel will also look silly if they win, having decided not to stand.

[You kip if you want to...]

Small note, on Thursday, UKIP will finally overtake the LibDems for number of votes cast in by-elections over the course of this parliament.

[You kip if you want to...]

Gosh, the Lib Dems really annoy Labour people. One would almost think that Cameron invented the Lib Dems to distract them from the Tories.

Well, when they spend a generation attacking Labour as too right-wing, then put Cameron in number 10 in exchange for nothing more than some nice ministerial limos and then go onto break more promises than most people have had hot dinners, despite professing during the campaign that they "believe it's time for promises to be kept"... they'll annoy Labour people just a little bit, yeah.

[You kip if you want to...]

Gosh, the Lib Dems really annoy Labour people. One would almost think that Cameron invented the Lib Dems to distract them from the Tories.

Well, when they spend a generation attacking Labour as too right-wing, then put Cameron in number 10 in exchange for nothing more than some nice ministerial limos and then go onto break more promises than most people have had hot dinners, despite professing during the campaign that they "believe it's time for promises to be kept"... they'll annoy Labour people just a little bit, yeah.

Oh good heavens. Is that what you truly believe? Because it's utter tripe.

Is it? Really, is it?

[You kip if you want to...]

He ran on tax cuts and coalition with the most-voted party, so it should have been as clear as crystal that the most likely coalition was with the Tories, regardless of whatever Charles Kennedy said seven years and three leaders before him. As for the big promises of tax cuts, education spending and constitutional reform, they won the first, caved spectacularly on the second and Labour helped the Tories to block the third. Unless Miliband will radically reduce university tuition fees, some of the complaints from Labour should be read opportunistically. The Lib Dem promise-breaking record and polling outcomes are about as good/bad as your typical European small coalition party, though the British electoral system magnifies such low poll figures.

They ran on the promise to talk to the biggest party first, fair enough, but the party had still spent 20 years lambasting Labour as too right-wing and presenting themselves as the 'true' left only to use this support to put Cameron in Number 10 and to keep him there. Minority government was an option and would've been more pleasing to all sides. The hope many had at first was that they'd be a brake on any excessive Tory measures, but, if anything, they've been the accelerator, offering Cameron support on any issue for which it was needed.

Tax "cuts" - They put up VAT despite warning of a "Tory VAT bombshell" and they cut the 50p rate, breaking their promise of "fairer taxes".

Constitution - It was a weak offer on Lords reform anyway which most Libs didn't even like. They also "won" a referendum in the coalition agreement on a voting system that nobody wanted and wouldn't have solved the problems that they themselves wanted addressing.

And Labour has promised a reduction in tuition fees. The LibDem increase didn't achieve what it aimed for and has given a poor, regressive deal to students - a price which is 3x higher than before, for poorer quality and to see swathes of degree programmes shut down. It will also cost the tax payer more through the loss of unpaid loans.

They've spent their time in government, for the most part, running away from their own record to no avail, because there's no point in trying to fool themselves or the public into thinking that they've honoured the faith that over 6 million people entrusted them with at the last election. They're not at 7% in the polls for no reason.

[You kip if you want to...]

Looking at the two Survation polls, evidence of Labs and Libs going tactically for the Tories.

[You kip if you want to...]

Turnout was 52.8%

Bang on the same as Eastleigh. Tied for second best of the parliament, behind Mid-Ulster.