UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Phony Moderate]

May the Twitter circus begin.

[Phony Moderate]

Liveblog:

labourlist.org/2014/02/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-by-election-liveblog/

[Phony Moderate]

The overall swing in by-elections in the 2005-2010 Parliament was scarily close to the swing in the general election. Anyone know what it is for this Parliament thus far?

[Phony Moderate]

Difficult to think of any politician who fell from grace as quickly as Clegg. Churchillian approval ratings during the campaign, then just about the most unpopular centre party leader on record by the end of that year. Lulz. A similar thing happened to Blair, but it took more like a decade.

[Phony Moderate]

There are many reasons aside from the Coalition to loathe the Lib Dems - Bermondsey, David Ward, Mike Hancock, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, ousting a leader due to his alcoholism... Frankly, I wouldn't dislike a Tory majority government anymore than any government in which the Lib Dems are a part.

[Phony Moderate]

As much as I despise his politics, props to him for having the balls to immediately re-contest his seat. 

[Phony Moderate]

Ah, already heard the ignorant "Labour will win if anyone votes UKIP" line. That was swifter than usual.

[Phony Moderate]

Hm, there are more than a few other Tory MPs with UKIP sympathies, and they would not be amused by those plans.

[Phony Moderate]

It would appear that Labour held the seat from 1997-2005 for two main reasons: 1. 9.2% Referendum Party share in 1997 (surely close to being the highest in the country), 2. Lib Dem voters fleeing to Labour in droves; the Lib Dem vote in 2005 was half of what it was in 1992.

[Phony Moderate]

Survation poll...brace yourselves.

UKIP - 64% (+64)
Tories - 20% (-33)
Labour - 13% (-12)
Lib Dems - 2% (-11)
Others - 1% (-8)

Several records would fall on that.

[Phony Moderate]

So the combined 'right-wing' vote may well be in the 80s...if these polls are accurate then we are looking at Bradford West in reverse.

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP faded in 2010 because they only received publicity during the 2009 Euro elections and were swiftly forgotten about. But now they have firmly been in the public eye for two years. Carswell will pretty comfortably hold next year too, in my view, and UKIP will break 10% nationally.

[Phony Moderate]

What impact, if any, would a Yes vote have on the situation in Clacton? Some people ('some people' as in politicalbetting.com) are suggesting that it would unleash a wave of nationalism throughout the UK and UKIP would be the main beneficies in England.

[Phony Moderate]

So, a 5-point win for UKIP then?

[Phony Moderate]

... and the Guardian are saying that Labour are saying that the Tories are on about 20% in Clacton, and that the Lib Dems have lost their deposit there too (no surprise I think).

NB 20% is what Survation said.

Edit: they've now amended that to roughly U 60%, C 24%, Lab 12%

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Phony Moderate]

Another noteworthy tidbit is that the Clacton polls weren't entirely useless. Pity the same can't be said for H&M.

[Phony Moderate]

It also seems that a lot of former Labour voters have been won over by hard right populism.  Even the idea of voting "strategically" for UKIP is a disturbing trend.

There have been certain signs recently that UKIP is turning into a mere generic populist party.