UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

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Trafford vicar Daniel Critchlow has been chosen for the Conservatives.

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Eddie O'Sullivan chosen by the BNP here.

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Mike Kane to defend for Labour - http://labourlist.org/2014/01/mike-kane-selected-as-labours-candidate-for-wythenshawe-and-sale-east/

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Tony Woodcock for the Greens. He's the chair of the Manchester branch..

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Nice and short ballot paper. They all used to be that size, you know...

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I'm going for a Labour gain, but if the Kipper momentum is large enough, this could be fascinating

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Constituency map:

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65696.kml

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Polling day is June 5th

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The Patriotic Socialist Party is to stand here (they say)

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Roger Helmer for UKIP, report The Sunday Times...

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It is a peculiar choice for UKIP: not so much getting them out of the pub so much as having them leaping over the bar to slurp mild straight from the taps...

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David Watts for the LibDems
Dick Rogers for Common Good

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Nick The Flying Brick Delves for the OMRLP

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Who thinks the Lib Dems will save their deposit? (The answer is no, they won't.)

We will..

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Green Party to stand here - https://mobile.twitter.com/davegaz/status/465927462032244736

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From the Newark Advertiser

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Official list

   Paul BAGGALEY (Independent)   
   David BISHOP   (Bus Pass Elvis)   
   Nick The Flying BRICK    (Monster Raving Loony)
   Andy HAYES      (Independent)
   Roger HELMER   (UK Independence Party (   UKIP))
   Robert JENRICK   (Conservative)
   David KIRWAN   (Green)
   Michael PAYNE   (Labour)
        Dick RODGERS    (Stop Commercial Banks Owning Britian's Money)
   David WATTS   (Liberal Democrat)
   Lee WOODS.        (Patriotic Socialist)

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Gosh, the Lib Dems really annoy Labour people. One would almost think that Cameron invented the Lib Dems to distract them from the Tories.

Well, when they spend a generation attacking Labour as too right-wing, then put Cameron in number 10 in exchange for nothing more than some nice ministerial limos and then go onto break more promises than most people have had hot dinners, despite professing during the campaign that they "believe it's time for promises to be kept"... they'll annoy Labour people just a little bit, yeah.

Oh good heavens. Is that what you truly believe? Because it's utter tripe.

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Gosh, the Lib Dems really annoy Labour people. One would almost think that Cameron invented the Lib Dems to distract them from the Tories.

Well, when they spend a generation attacking Labour as too right-wing, then put Cameron in number 10 in exchange for nothing more than some nice ministerial limos and then go onto break more promises than most people have had hot dinners, despite professing during the campaign that they "believe it's time for promises to be kept"... they'll annoy Labour people just a little bit, yeah.

Oh good heavens. Is that what you truly believe? Because it's utter tripe.

Is it? Really, is it?

Yes. I find it remarkable that people still can't grasp what coalition government means, or how elections work. That people are getting into emotional fits over a political party agreeing to work with another suggests that more voters than I feared don't listen to what's said before polling day.

Having put many manifesto promises into law, I'm more than happy at the record of LibDems in government. Prissy petulance about TEH EVUL TOREEEZ is laughable claptrap.

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Ashcroft poll for Clacton:
UKIP 56
Con 24
Lab 16
LD 2
(so a similar message to the Survation poll but not quite as extreme)

The writ is apparently going to be moved today for the by-election to be on 9 October.

Which is David Cameron's birthday.

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Assuming Reckless wins as well, how likely is it that we start seeing more Tory defections?

Very hard to say.  I'm sure there are a few Tories who are tempted, but whether they decide to jump is another matter; some of them are in UKIP-unfriendly seats (like Enfield Southgate, as mentioned above) so probably won't unless they're standing down or planning to move constituency.  Farage also talks about possible Labour defections, but I'm not sure whether anyone really believes him.

BTW the Tories are supposedly going to move the writ for Rochester & Strood next week, with polling day on 6 November.  They're also going for a postal open primary (as opposed to an open hustings followed by a vote, which is what they did in Clacton) to select their candidate.

Today's Daily Express (I know, I know) says 6 Tories are thinking of defecting post-Rochester

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The Labour Party is suffering a slight backlash in non-metropolitan areas of the country

It is highly questionable whether this is actually happening outside the fevered imagination of out of touch political junkies (of all hues) in central London, but whatever.

You almost lost Heywood and Middleton through a working class revolt to UKIP.