UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[DL]

Wow - amazing how the Lib Dems in the UK sound exactly like the Liberal Party in Canada!! I guess the apple never falls far from the tree.

Gosh, the Lib Dems really annoy Labour people. One would almost think that Cameron invented the Lib Dems to distract them from the Tories.

Well, when they spend a generation attacking Labour as too right-wing, then put Cameron in number 10 in exchange for nothing more than some nice ministerial limos and then go onto break more promises than most people have had hot dinners, despite professing during the campaign that they "believe it's time for promises to be kept"... they'll annoy Labour people just a little bit, yeah.

[DL]

In contrast in Canada our version of the Labour Party - the NDP - is 100% pro-choice and you are not allowed to be a candidate (let alone sit in caucus) unless you pledge to support abortion rights in any parliamentary vote. The Liberals used to be more divided but now their leader Justin Trudeau has also said that no one will be allowed to run in the next election unless they support abortion rights - though a handful of incumbent pro-life Liberal MPs will be "grandfathered" and allowed to continue to be anti-choice.

[DL]

I wonder if Labour will quietly encourage its voters in Rochester to vote tactically for UKIP since a UKIP win there agianst the Tories would give UKIP huge momentum and likely be lethal to David Cameron.

[DL]

For every one vote UKIP takes from Labour they take three from the Tories. Notice that it's the Tories who are at risk of losing previously safe seats to UKIP, labour will easily retain its seat in a Byelection on Thursday

[DL]

Another poll (usual caveats apply, etc) of Heywood & Middleton, this time by Lord Ashcroft:

Labour 47, UKIP 28, Con 16, LDem 5, Green 4

Like I was saying - UKIP poses no threat to Labour held seats - but has the potential to be lethal to the Tories...

[DL]

Obviously when a party goes from 0% to 28% - some of that support will come from each of the older parties - but again - if you are the Labour Party you have to drool at the thought of all those Lab/Tory marginals where if UKIP goes from 0% to - say - 15% - 3 or 4 points will come from Labour while 10-11 will come from the Tories - all in all the rise of Ukip is good news for Labour in that for the most part it splits the rightwing vote....and in the longterm if the rightwing vote in the UK gets split between the established right (ie: Tories) and the populist, eurosceptic right (ie: UKIP) - its a boon to the Labour party.

[DL]

Mitterrand tried that thinking here back in the 1980s. Now Hollande is not amused...

It worked very well for Mitterrand in the 80s and even now the Front Nationale is a much bigger problem for the traditional right in France than it is for the Socialists. Similarly in Sweden the growth of the Sweden Democrats has caused the rightwing coalition to lose power and the social democrats to regain power. When all is said and done, its all about winning elections and as someone who wants the Labour party to win in may 2015 - I REJOICE at the rise of the UKIP party and how it will drive a huge wedge in the British right...Labour lost election thanks to vote splitting with the SDP and libDems - now its the Tories turn to experience that. Enjoy! 

[DL]

Let's be clear, Labour is in no position to openly help anyone other than itself in Rochester...but I'm also saying that this being a byelection - there is no "motive" whatsoever for a Labour voter to vote Tory to save the seat from going Ukip - on the contrary if you wanted to vote tactically at all - either stick with Labour or vote UKIP in the byelection just for the sake of tossing a hand grenade at the Tories.

[DL]

Another Survation poll for Rochester & Strood: UKIP 48 Con 33 Lab 16 Green 2 LD 1

A couple of weeks ago, people in this thread ridiculed me when i suggested that Labour voters would never vote tactically for the Tories to stop UKIP and that on the contrary Labour voters were more likely to vote tactically for UKIP if they think that UKIP is the party best able to kick the Tories in the face in this byelection...turns out i was right!

[DL]

There is a long history of "third parties" doing very well in byelections in the UK on the strength of representing a "protest vote". If the Tories had won a majority in 2010 and the Lib Dems had been sitting in opposition for the last 4 years in all likelhood the Lib Dems would be polling in the mid 20s and would be easily winning byelections in strongly Conservative seats like this one.

[DL]

There is no rule that says that MPs that switch parties have to quit and run in a byelection (maybe there should be - but there isn't) - in fact in the vast majority of cases floor-crossers do NOT resign and trigger a byelection, right?

[DL]

I really don't get the uproar over "white van man"...its not as if Thornberry tweeted the picture along with some condescending derogatory comment. She just tweeted the picture without comment - so big deal?? I tend to assume that people who festoon their homes with English flags do so because they WANT to make a statement and be noticed and so she was just giving the owner of the home the coverage he obviously craved.

Surely having someone resign from a shadow cabinet over tweeting a picture of a house with no associated comment is OVERKILL to say the least!